Public Policy Polling has released a new poll regarding the Virginia Governors race showing Republican nominee Bob McDonnell holding a 49% to 43% lead over Democratic noominee Creigh Deeds, erasing Deeds' bounce he received after winning the Democratic nomination during last months primary. Republicans also lead by similar margins in the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races.
The difference in the race is McDonnell's 54% to 33% lead over Deeds among Independents, a group Obama carried by just one percentage point over McCain in the 2008 general election. Deeds needs to close this gap if he has any chance of winning this race.
There is actually some goos news in this poll for Deeds:
There is some good news for Deeds in the results. He currently leads just 68-16 among African Americans but Democrats often under poll in that demographic this far out from an election and end up doing better at the ballot box. Also, there are more undecided Democrats than Republicans, giving him room to grow.
"The race for Governor right now is in a very similar place to 2005," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "The Republican Attorney General has a modest lead four months out from election day. The question now is whether McDonnell can sustain it, unlike Jerry Kilgore, or whether Deeds will come from behind to win as Tim Kaine did."
Republicans hold similar leads in the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.
One alarming sign for Deeds is the pathetic turnout among Democrats in so many special elections during the fall and winter, as well as the gubernatorial primary in June. Republicans are hungry after their defeat last fall and their turnout in special elections in normally safe Democratic districts that created some very close calls for Dems, could be an omen for things to come this fall.
Deeds' campaign needs to come up with issues and a field plan that excites and motivates the Democratic base or there could be a repeat of the 2005 Attorney Generals race. You might recall that McDonnell defeated Deeds in that race by about 350 votes. Deeds lost this race due to his conservative stances on issues like guns, that many Dems in the northern Virginia suburbs found distasteful, and who decided not to vote in that race.
Deeds had no field operation during the primary and will probably rely on the state Democratic Joint Campaign for his field work. In that respect, the Deeds campaign will surely miss the Obama campaigns field operation - lets hope the Virginia Democratic Party has the forsite to put a winning field operation together.
In the meantime, if you have some spare change hanging around, feel free to make a donation.
http://www.actblue.com/...
https://services.myngp.com/...
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
UPDATED: 1:24 p.m., EST
The Republican Party currently has 14 field offices open across the state:
http://www.rpv.org/...