Secretaries Sebelius (HHS) and Napolitano (DHS) along with Arne Duncan (Education) and other experts from CDC and elsewhere will be conducting an all day flu summit at NIH today. The agenda is here (and below the fold). The purpose of the summit is to help states prepare for an expected worsening of the pandemic in the fall, and that includes preparing for occasional school closures.
Plenary sessions will air live from 8:30 AM – 12:30 PM EDT and from 2:45 PM – 4:00 PM EDT. Watch live here. Follow on twitter here. Ten minute situtational update by CDC Director Thomas Frieden at 8:40 EDT
Modeling shows that even the same virulence in more people this fall will result in higher fatality (by a factor of 3-5) compared to seasonal flu. The population becoming ill is different than seasonal flu (it's younger) and this is leading to a change of plans regarding vaccine strategy.
Evidence to date suggests that population immunity to this virus is low, particularly among the young. In one small serologic study of samples collected during 2006-08, cross-reacting antibody were found among some older persons but not in any younger adults or children. Widespread susceptibility to this virus among young persons creates the potential for large numbers of cases with more hospitalizations and deaths among younger age groups than would be expected for a typical routine seasonal influenza virus. Importantly, severe disease and death caused by novel H1N1 thus far have affected younger adults, children, and pregnant women, in addition to persons of all ages with certain underlying medical conditions more than the elderly. The virus has also caused numerous outbreaks in schools and summer camps.
Vaccine won't be available right away, and when it is, the high risk groups that will be targeted will change form the norm:
Planning Scenarios
The following are best-case planning scenarios that would be recommended in a setting of limited initial vaccine availability.
From AP:
"I want to be clear: This summit is not about raising alarms or stoking fears. It is about being prepared," Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said. "We must avoid complacency."
We'll have more coverage of the summit when it's done, but this appears to be a gearing up of the public messaging on the part of the Feds, including an invitation to make a video public service announcement. Readers here will be familiar with the issues. Today, we get some of the details. And keep an ear open for the vaccine strategies before the fall. If the decision is made to vaccinate, it will be a separate shot (or two, still to be determined) from the regular seasonal flu jab, and will need to be offered in a variety of venues (schools, doctor offices, special flu clinics, etc.) Whatever the final plan, it won't be business as usual.
Added: from HHS:
The Obama Administration sent a strong message to the nation today that it is time to start planning and preparing for the fall flu season and the ongoing H1N1 flu outbreak and that the federal government is prepared to commit resources, training, and new tools to help state and local governments and America's families get ready.
White House Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan, Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, Secretary of Education Arne Duncan joined with delegations from 54 states, tribes and territories today at the H1N1 Influenza Preparedness Summit at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md., to kick-off the government's nation-wide fall flu preparedness efforts.
H1N1 Influenza Preparedness Summit - July 9, 2009
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
National Institutes of Health
Natcher Conference Center
Bethesda, MD
8:30 a.m.
Call to Order / Opening Remarks
Raynard S. Kington, M.D., Ph.D.
Director (Acting), National Institutes of Health
U.S.Department of Health and Human Services
John O. Brennan
Homeland Security Advisor, The White House
8:40 a.m.
H1N1 Situational Update
Thomas R. Frieden, M.D., M.PH.
Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
8:50 a.m.
Introduction
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.
Director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases National Institutes of Health
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
8:55 a.m.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Activities and Priorities
Kathleen Sebelius
Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
9:05 a.m.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security Activities and Priorities
Janet Napolitano
Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
9:15 a.m.
U.S. Department of Education Activities and Priorities
Arne Duncan
Secretary, U.S. Department of Education
9:25 a.m.
Secretaries’ Panel Discussion: Questions and Answers
Moderator:
Martin O’Malley
Governor, Maryland
Panelists:
Kathleen Sebelius
Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Janet Napolitano
Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Arne Duncan
Secretary, U.S. Department of Education
10:00 a.m.
Break
10:10 a.m.
Panel: School Preparedness
Moderator:
William Modzeleski
Associate Assistant Deputy Secretary Office of Safe and Drug Free Schools
U.S. Department of Education
Panelists:
Sue Todey
Education Specialist
Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction
Belinda Pustka
Superintendent, Schertz-Cibolo USD in Texas
Mary Pappas, R.N., B.S.N.
Nurse, St. Francis Preparatory School, New York City
Questions and Answers
11:00 a.m.
Panel: H1N1 Flu Preparedness Lessons Learned From States and Localities
Moderator:
Stephen C. Redd, M.D.
Director, Influenza Coordination Unit
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Panelists:
COL Damon Arnold, M.D., M.P.H
Director of Public Health, Illinois Department of Public Health
State Surgeon, Illinois Army National Guard
Marcelle Layton, M.D.
Assistant Commissioner
New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene
Anslem Roanhorse, Jr.
Executive Director, Navajo Nation Division of Health
Questions and Answers
12:30 p.m.
Lunch
1:15 p.m.
Breakout Sessions
2:00 p.m.
Breakout Sessions
2:45 p.m.
Panel: Putting the Principles of Risk Communications to Work – H1N1 Flu Outbreak Case Study
Panelists:
Richard E. Besser, M.D.
Director, Coordinating Office for Terrorism Preparedness and Emergency Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Barbara J. Reynolds, Ph.D.
Crisis Communications Senior Advisor, Office of the Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Questions and Answers
3:30 p.m.
Closing Remarks
4:00 p.m.
Summit Close