Sarah Palin is the most likely Republican nominee for president. This is not because she is a competent politician, or because she will make great decisions between now and January 2012, or because the majority of Republicans want to lose the general election. It is because of the way the Republican Party allocates delegates.
Each party sets rules regarding the allocation of delegates based on primary and caucus vote totals. In almost all cases, the Republican Party’s allocates primary delegates based on a winner-take-all approach. This means that the candidate with a plurality of the votes wins all of the pledged delegates from that state. A candidate who can consistently win 30% of the vote in a large primary field, then, will likely win the nomination without ever having to win over 50%.
In 2008, for example, John McCain was the presumptive nominee before he ever won over 50% of a primary vote. In fact, the key votes before Super Tuesday show anything but decisive victories for McCain based on percentages.
Iowa – 13%
New Hampshire – 38%
Michigan – 30%
Nevada – 13%
South Carolina – 33%
Florida – 36%
Why give the nomination to someone so early who had not yet won by a large percentage? The principal advantages of this system are that it nominates a candidate relatively early, generates electoral momentum with relatively small vote percentages, and gives the winner the illusion of a decisive nomination.
One disadvantage of this system (for Republicans) is that it will result in Sarah Palin becoming the nominee in 2012. This is because the current Republican Party has lost many of its moderates. Of those who are left, 30% - 40% watch Glen Beck, attend tea parties, and feel a tingle of pride and adoration when they hear "You Betcha!". If this portion of the Republican base continues to support Palin at its current level (and there is no reason to think it won’t – the more she is attacked for being foolish, the more she appeals to this group), they will be able to carry her to easy primary victories in what will likely be a large field of candidates.
In 2008 the Democrats were criticized for a terrible delegate allocation system (proportional) because it allowed the primary to drag on, which allegedly weakens the eventual nominee through the bruising and lengthy primary calendar. The Republicans seemed wise to have their candidate chosen so early. It is interesting, then, that in 2012 these same GOP delegate allocation rules will likely result in their weakest candidate becoming the nominee. At least we will know that Palin is the nominee by the first week in February, which will give us 9 whole months to enjoy the disaster of her candidacy.