This title does not represent a prediction, but in keeping with my long tradition of avoiding optimism at all costs, I thought I'd give an nightmare Election Day formula that really isn't as far-fetched as we like to think it is. Here goes....
The much-hyped premise of disillusioned Republican voters boycotting the polls in November has the party aware of their problems, very much unlike the Democratic Party at this time in 1994. This strategy will predictably yield the kind of nationalized campaign at all local levels that the Republicans have masterfully employed in the last two election cycles. Despondent Republicans will be pounded with the "Nancy Pelosi will rule the world" theme and the inspiration of terror will get them back on track very quickly. Let's face it....in the post-Karl Rove world, the idea that the Republican faithful will be unmotivated to head to the polls simply won't come to fruition. Republican will show up to vote in large numbers....and the vast majority will be voting for members of their own party.
This leaves the Democrats desperate for the independent vote. If they're gonna win control of the House and gain 3-5 Senate seats, the independent vote will not only have to be more than 2-1 advantage-Dem, it'll have to be large in overall voters. It's uncertain that either the huge advantage or high independent turnout will occur, as foreshadowed by Francine Busby's underwhelming performance in last week's special election. Conservative-leaning independents will be troubled by what they see and hear about Democratic torchbearer Nancy Pelosi (and make no mistake, she will be a huge liability in another four or five months), and many of the voters currently expressing a "generic preference" for Democrats this fall will change their tune once Pelosi is thoroughly filleted in every GOP-held district/state in the nation by the Rove smear machine.
Furthermore, there doesn't appear to be much in the way of outrage among independent voters. They're not happy with the current state of the country or especially the current state of Washington, but the sense of urgency felt by both sides during the 2004 Presidential election just doesn't seem to be there right now. Perhaps this will change by the fall, but if it doesn't, it will be independents who we desperately need in our column that will fail to show up at the polls in November, not the Republican faithful.
That just leaves the Democratic die-hards. We may be motivated, but our voters are no longer more plentiful than the Republican die-hards. Our energized base alone is not enough to win back either House of Congress, and may not even be large enough to hang onto the number of seats we currently have. Consider the Senate seats where a suppressed independent turnout could hamstring us....Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee in our "offensive" races...and Minnesota, New Jersey and Washington in our "defensive" races. Meanwhile, the combination of higher-than-expected Republican turnout and fear of Nancy Pelosi could hurt us in GOP bastions Montana and Nebraska (don't kid yourselves....Ben Nelson will not be winning cranberry-red Nebraska by a landslide no matter how high his approval ratings are).
Needless to say, this phenomenon is even more applicable to the House where strong GOP turnout coupled with weak independent turnout will almost assuredly lead to incumbent re-elections for candidates such as Charles Taylor, Geoff Davis, John Hostettler, and Randy Kuhl, but could also lead to defeats of soft Democratic incumbents such as Melissa Bean, Jim Marshall, Charlie Melancon, and Chet Edwards.
There's no guarantee this scenario will unfold, and I certainly hope it doesn't, but with Republicans acutely aware of their predicament and Democrats continually quagmired in a game of wishful thinking and incompetent leadership, the donkeys will look like asses again this November. The independents need motivation to vote, and the Democratic Party to give them that motivation or prepare for another bloodbath in 2006.