I won't claim to know the President's endgame. I won't claim to know whether we are on the verge of a great victory or a great defeat, whether this is part of Obama's master plan or a genuine screw up on his part, since truthfully, I don't know. I hope for the former but I fear the latter. So I won't claim any judgment on that front.
Instead, I'd like to engage in a hypothetical, an exercise in hindsight, if you will. Yes, hindsight is always 20/20, but we should take advantage of such perfect vision more often, even if it points backward. So my hypothetical is this:
What if, at the beginning of this whole ordeal, the whole reform effort had been framed as simply expanding Medicare?
It's not a new proposal; I first encountered it myself in the latter seasons of "The West Wing." Those of us here already know it's better policy,and as such, isn't the focus of this diary. Instead, it's one of messaging, of framing.
What if the Administration and Democrats had come out of the gate with this framing instead of the more conciliatory already-compromised "public option?" Where would our debate be now if that were the initial move?
The GOP's play book, as thin as it is these days, would almost certainly be the same: cry "Socialist!" and "Fascist!" as often and as loudly as you can (and complain about cost, as always). But the ground they've gained, they've gained because they've tapped into real fear among a real segment of the population - older white voters. Yes, it doesn't make any sense and yes, their health care is socialized. But sadly, that reality doesn't matter. The only reality that matters is that they don't make the connection. And now, we're forced to spend news cycle after news cycle shouting back, trying to get them to make the connection, after the fact and after they're already riled up and closed off.
But, what if, instead, we had made the connection out of the gate. "We want to give everybody the chance to have Medicare!" We start out with a stronger position, closer to true single payer, and we've already short circuited their path to the GOP's only remaining base of power - old white people, many of whom are on Medicare. Sure, the same lies get tossed out and spread. Fox News still functions by its MO and all the other traditional media still fail spectacularly at their jobs, as they unfailingly do. Maybe most people still don't make the connection that their health care IS government health care. But perhaps, this way, it doesn't erupt in the way it has, fueling these genuinely angry people to the extremes they've been fueled and subsequently warping the whole debate away from grounds on which we can easily win.
Maybe, maybe not. In any event, the moment is lost, but maybe it can provide a lesson for the next one. A key part of messaging is knowing the audience you're communicating to. And we already know the sole remaining demographic still listening to the GOP. Just knowing that should give us the upper hand in entering any policy debate. Even if we don't get through and convince a majority or significant portion of that demographic, we can still short circuit the GOP's ability to reach them and thus, their ability to disrupt progress.
I don't know, maybe by the time I'm eligible for Medicare, we'll finally get single payer. Here's to hoping.