KY-Sen: SurveyUSA Offers Intriguing Early Look At This Race
Now that Jim Bunning has officially parachuted out of the Kentucky Senate race for 2010, SurveyUSA has taken the first look at the Senate picture for 2010. In the Democratic Primary, the situation remains very fluid, but 2004 nominee and current Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo holds an eight point lead over state Attorney General Jack Conway (39-31). Even more fluid potentially, and quite surprisingly, is the Republican Primary. Just because Jim Bunning got out of the way because of Secretary of State Trey Grayson should lead no one to believe that Grayson will actually be the party's nominee. He earns just 37% in the GOP Primary trial heat, with physician Rand Paul trailing with 26% of the vote. In a general election, Grayson leads both Democrats (Mongiardo by 6, Conway by 7). Conway leads Paul in a heads-up battle, while Paul and Mongiardo are near a dead-heat.
CO-Sen: Bennet Near Even With Any Potential GOP Opponents, Says PPP
Following up on a survey they conducted earlier in the year, PPP polls in the state of Colorado and finds toss-ups pretty much across the board for the Senate seat currently occupied by Democratic appointee Michael Bennet. Bennet trails former GOP Congressman and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez by just three points (42-39), while having slight leads of 4-5 points over lesser known candidates Ryan Frazier and Ken Buck. Normally, an incumbent this far under 50% is cause for grave concern. And while some concern is certainly warranted, it is also worth pointing out that Bennet is an appointed Senator, and enjoyed little name recognition when appointed. Even now, Bennet draws more "unsure/don't know" responses from voters than does Beauprez, who has already been on the statewide stage. Definitely a race to watch, especially if (as rumored) former Republican Lt. Governor Jane Norton jumps into the mix.
IL-Sen/IL-Gov: Chris Kennedy Is Running For...Nothing...in 2010
After weeks of speculation as to whether or not Merchandise Mart president (and RFK progeny) Chris Kennedy was going to poop or get off the pot politically, Kennedy apparently has elected to relinquish the throne, so to speak. In the Spring, it seemed clear that he was headed for a bid for the Senate. Then, as Alexi Giannoulias started to pile up endorsements in the Senate Dem primary, the rumors became that he was eyeing the Governor's race. Kennedy, 46, announced to friends today that he will seek neither office.
FL-Gov: GOP Poll Gives (Surprise!) GOP an Edge in Gubernatorial Race
The Florida Chamber of Commerce, contracting with a Republican polling firm called Cherry Communications, has offered up new numbers on the Florida Gubernatorial Race. They stake Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum to a nine-point lead over Democratic state CFO Alex Sink (43-34). Interestingly, they also polled current Governor Charlie Crist's approval rating, and found it in the stratosphere (67/27). Of course, this is a sponsored poll by a GOP-friendly group, so take it with the appropriate salt. To their credit, however, this is not terribly far afield of what other pollsters have had in this race.
NC-Sen: Possible Democratic Challenger To Burr Emerging?
As the North Carolina Democratic Party (and the DSCC, one would imagine) continue to search for an opponent for potentially vulnerable freshman Senator Richard Burr, a new name is being bandied about: former Lt. Governor Dennis Wicker. Wicker, who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2000, says he has been approached by several folks, and is listening to the overtures. He, however, also said he is focused on his law practice, and his comments to the News/Observer did not reflect a tremendous "fire in the belly" response. Democrats are still waiting on Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former state Senator Cal Cunningham to make up their minds one way or the other.
NJ-Gov: Christie's Gauntlet of Scandals Continues
About the only good thing you can say about New Jersey GOP gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie's horrific news week is that he seems to be getting all of it out of the way quickly. The latest potential roadblock to the governors mansion is a rather controversial loan totalling $46,000 that Christie gave to a friend who is still working in the U.S. Attorney's office. Christie claims this was a helping hand to a friend. Even if that were true (and it may well be), there are two problems for Christie here. One is that he may well have run afoul of some reporting requirements. The other is more basic and political: if Christie has the sensitive ethical antennae that we keep being told that he has, surely he can see the problems with the optics of an assistant US attorney being financially beholden to a politician.
TX-Sen/TX-Gov: Hutchison Still Reluctant To Give Resignation Date
Although longtime U.S. Senator (and current candidate for the Governors Mansion) Kay Bailey Hutchison still maintains that she will resign her Senate seat in order to devote full attention to next year's GOP gubernatorial primary, she is not setting a specific date. In remarks made yesterday, she seemed to imply that it will be at least another month before she formally resigns from the Senate:
"I'm going to set the stage for Texas for next year," she said. "It's very important that people understand that. I get all the political punditry that says if she goes back to Washington for two months then she could lose this whole thing. My first priority would be to do the right thing for Texas. If I walk away before Oct. 1, I would be walking away from my responsibility."
Senate Republicans, clearly, want her to delay her resignation as long as possible, to allow their candidates to play financial catch-up with the Democrats. Both Bill White, the mayor of Houston, and former statewide officeholder John Sharp have three-to-one leads in fundraising (as of 6/30/09) over leading Republican Roger Williams.