This diary is partly in response to this post by Andrew Sullivan where he uses the phrase "Late Empires" and wonders if Obama is a kind of test of whether American is in the throes of late empire decay.
I've been worrying along similar lines lately, especially in view of the madness of the health care fracas. We in Australia view the prospect of an American decline with consternation. Not least because a lot of our formative decades as a nation took place amidst the flying debris of another empire in decline, the British. It conentrates the mind no end to think on this question, if Obama should fail, what then?
If Obama is a test for America, what are we to do if it does fail? As Sullivan and points out the pervasive nepotism in Washington is one of many symptoms that feel a lot like a late empire behaviour. (Bush Jnr as Nero anyone?). Clearly Obama's election was a big push in the other direction, towards merit and humanity, and rightly appauded around the world as such. Amongst all the hand wringing here at Kos and elsewhere about a single term presidency and "he's not the libreal he promised to be" blah blah, I think we may have lost sight of what the consequences of an Obama failure might be for all of us. It's a scenario that has existential potential.
Think about what might happen. If the GOP get 48 senators in 2010 and get the house and the White House back in 2012. What would they do? Go isolationist for one thing. Trade barriers that will make Smoot Hawley look like a picnic, tax cuts that can't be sustained, miltary spending likewise. A second recession almost certainly, a depression maybe and certainly a much more isolated and soon thereafter, an increasingly indebted and impoverished America. And what would the world do? Decouple if humanly possible. Sell the dollar, move comodities trading to the Euro. Accomodate China.
One thing that I think is common in thinking in many capitols is this. That people had come close to giving up on America as a result of the Bush years. Obama's election was seen as a redemption. If he should be rejected, especially if is for what seem like insane reasons, like daring to propose universal health cover, then many people will give up on America for good and governments will start building long term planning around the assumption that America will likely fail.
From the perspective of Australia as a friend and ally obviously an American decline is very scary, because we have to think about how we could survive in a world dominated by someone else. But the cold truth is this, as much as we care and are a true friend, when it comes down to it, we gotta eat. We have to do our best for our kids' future. And if that means making accomodations in a dangerous world then that's what we'll do.
If it means learning to live with China's many brutalities at the same time as we profit from their energy and vibrancy (and their growing savings accounts) then we will. If it means trying to hold together an alliance of democracies by helping Japan to recover and India and Indonesia to grow and Europe to cohere and make sense then we'll do that to. Whatever it takes. Like I said, comes down to it, we gotta eat. And our willingness to go down with your ship is limited. We nearly went down with the British ship in the Pacific war, saved only by America. And we won't quickly forget that but we know from ahrd experience that falling empires make big holes and we won't leave our kids stuck in one.
As scary as the global consequences of an American decline after an Obama failure might be, I fear the consequences for the people of the US would be even worse. Still more inequality, services and entitlements cuts to the bone, total corporate power over government.
So, amidst the fear and disappointment of the current debates I urge everyone on the left to think about the bigger picture and be under no illusions. Whatever your beef with Obama might be, and I personally think he'll come through in the end, he is the most progressive president we are likely to see in a generation and he might well be the last good shot at saving America from an irrervsable decline. This one's for all the marbles folks, it's the branch we all sitting on, so put down the chainsaw and breath OK?