A busy Monday in political-land, so let's get right after it:
NJ-Gov: New Weekend Poll In Governor's Race Shows Movement
Intriguing numbers were released over the weekend, in a semi-regular survey sponsored by Gannett and conducted by Monmouth University. It shows (PDF file) Jon Corzine leading by a single point among registered voters (41-40), but trailing by eight among likely voters (47-39). Despite being another poll with a major discrepancy between registered voters and likely voters, it is also a poll that showed considerable movement from the most recent numbers for this outfit (the last Gannett/Monmouth poll had Christie up by fourteen points). Meanwhile, Kim Guadagno took a shot from none other than Senator Bob Menendez for her comment last week that, as a college professor in Newark, she knew what it meant to "be afraid to walk across the street." The statement was particularly problematic for Team Christie, which earlier in the summer seemed to be going out of its way to paint Christie as an atypical Republican on the issue of urban New Jersey.
NH-Sen: Hodes Hurting, According to (Flawed) Republican Poll
Populus Research has polled New Hampshire a few times this year, and their results have had two consistent themes: 1) being extremely favorable to Republicans and 2) having some truly bizarre outcomes (readers will remember the mid-Summer poll on the Senate race that apparently, had nobody undecided). Well, they are back with a new poll, claiming that a generic Republican would wipe the floor with likely Democratic Senate nominee Paul Hodes (54-39). There is, however, much to critique in these polls. Starting with their origin (the firm is led by the former chair of the GOP) and moving onto other targets, Dean Barker does an effective job laying down the rationale for why this pollster cannot and should not be taken seriously. I'd add another: other than in races with incumbents, I have never seen a named candidate matched with a generic one. Generic options usually conjure up the "perfect" candidate from that party, and have a tendency to bias numbers. In other Granite State Senate news, there may be yet another GOP candidate in the mix, as the rumors are that businessman Sean Mahoney will announce a bid shortly.
VA-Gov: What Will The Regent U. Alumni Society Think?
No big news out of Virginia (except to expect some polling out of there this week, including a new one from DK/R2K), but one fairly amusing tidbit. Apparently, GOP nominee Bob McDonnell was on the radio last week, and dropped an "F-bomb" in an interview. The funny thing is: it was not on an issue or a statement where he was angered or frustrated. He was simply talking about mechanisms for transportation funding, normally not a subject where expletives are necessary.
MA-Sen: Special Election Field Starts To Take Shape
The past few days have seen a flurry of movement in the Bay State, as candidates declare themselves "in" or "out" of the forthcoming special election to replace the late Sen. Edward Kennedy in the U.S. Senate. Most of the movement over the weekend was out, at the close of the week, we saw both Republican Andy Card and Democrat Ed Markey back away from bids. Today, we learned that Democrat John Tierney, who has been in Congress since the mid-1990s, will not make a bid. Meanwhile, another Democratic name is being bandied about--businessman and Boston Celtics' managing director Steve Pagliuca. Pagliuca could be a dark horse in a short-cycle special election, because he would almost certainly be a self-funded candidate. No prominent Republicans have committed to the race as of yet.
KS-Sen: In Shocker, Senate's Most Wingnutty GOPer Endorses "Moderate"
There has been very little thus far that has been shocking about the Kansas Senate primary between GOP Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Until now. Jim DeMint, best known as the most right-wing member of the U.S. Senate (and last seen endorsing Joe Wilson's embarrassing tantrum against the President last week), endorsed Moran. This qualifies as a pretty big surprise, as the consensus had long been that Tiahrt was the more conservative of the two (his conservatism is highlighted, at least slightly, in Thomas Frank's "What's The Matter With Kansas?"). The primary appears to be a coinflip, and the winner of this primary would be a strong favorite (at least thus far) in the general election.
CO-Sen: Democratic Primary Battle To Be Fully Joined Mid-Week
Former Colorado state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff has officially decided to challenge appointed Senator Michael Bennet in a primary in 2010, and will kick off his campaign Wednesday. This could prove to be an extemely competitive primary: Bennet has no campaign experience, but he enjoys a truly formidable war chest. Romanoff has (arguably) higher name recognition, but must put a campaign together quickly to get caught up to the incumbent. On the GOP side, former Lt. Gov Jane Norton is considered the favorite, although as mentioned before, a number of base Republicans are less than thrilled with her virtual coronation by the state party.
NY-Gov/NY-Sen: Is It Going to Be Rick...Or Rudy?
Interesting news out of the Empire State today. As long had been expected, former Congressman Rick Lazio, best known as the man who was defeated for the U.S. Senate by Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2000, is running for Governor of New York. In an interesting side development, there are now reports that some folks are trying to persuade Rudy Giuliani to run for the Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand, rather than making a bid for Governor (although, to be fair, he has not committed to any electoral challenge in 2010). It is hard to imagine that Giuliani is being pushed aside for Lazio--even the almost radioactive incumbent, David Paterson, leads Lazio in polls. A reasonable conclusion, perhaps is that former Governor George Pataki is NOT going to run for the Senate next year.
OH 17: Traficant Mulling A Political Comeback. No, Seriously.
File this under truly bizarre potential 2010 political developments: in an interview with CNN just days after his release from the Big House, former Congressman Jim Traficant would not rule out running for office again, specifically a return to the House. Presumably, that would mean an Independent challenge to Congressman Tim Ryan. Traficant has been there before--he filed as an Independent after his expulsion from the House, and got 15% of the vote.
CT-Sen: Simmons Gets Heat From Local Dems For 9/11 Money Appeal
Rob Simmons is riding pretty high in polls right now (Rasmussen had him up ten last week, and DK will have numbers tomorrow that are different, but not substantially so), but he made a pretty sizeable gaffe last week. Eager to get out the news of his Rasmussen polling lead, he sent out a fundraising appeal highlighting his poll numbers, but he did it on the afternoon of September 11th. This did not escape the attention of either local bloggers or the DSCC, who were quick to criticize.
PA-06/PA-07: Candidate Announcement Leads To Musical Chairs
The announcement that former US Attorney Patrick Meehan will run for Congress as a Republican in the 7th district seat being relinquished by Joe Sestak led to a quick decision by the former leading GOP candidate in the 7th--businessman Steven Welch. Welch, wasting little time, has simply switched races. He will now be running in the neighboring 6th district, where his primary GOP opponent is likely to be state legislator Curt Schroder. Welch also announced that he would not be moving into the 6th, on the rationale that most of his hometown lies in the 6th district already.