If we look at the phenomenon of providing a job just from the perspective of incentives and disincentives, we get a funny picture of the world of jobs in the near future.
If we look at employment just from the perspective of a corporation or a small business, we start to see forces at work that may change the world of work quite radically in a short time. In the terms of cultural evolution, this might be termed punctuated equilibrium.
I have the benefit of a long view. I've seen changes in the rules of working going back to 1950s. Between then and now a lot of fundamental changes took place - sometimes almost overnight.
Back then, there were pensions and investing and doctors who paid house calls. Pensions were funded by companies or government agencies based upon length of service - now labeled as defined benefits. Investing was done by the moneyed classes through a social network of stock brokers. Doctors billed directly for services - sometimes at the home of the patient. It was difficult times for the poor. Little or no safety net that really worked.
Now, we have defined contribution investment plans for retirement like 401(k) and IRAs. That has gotten the employer out of the game for investing in the employees future. For the cost of a small percentage (or no) match, the employer can pretend to provide a retirement option. At the cost of administration. And this can be avoided for some classes of employees all-together.
Investing can be done online or in mutual funds or in a number of creative packages. The broker is no longer the center of the action. And the broker is no longer your partner in the investment activity. It is less preferred to seek out the best investment to benefit you and the broker. It is now preferred to sell you prepackaged solutions that have a planned rate of return - to the broker. You are on your own.
Your doctor doesn't make house calls, anymore. You get to go to him or her, if the doctor is in network - determined by your insurance company - if you have one. There is no personal relationship. Just a time limit. And a copay, determined by the insurance company. And an extra charge if the insurance company determines that they only have to pay so much. Since much of the insurance is provided by employers, there is a charge to the employer, except for some classe of employees.
How will all this change the way we work? Well, look at the forces on the employer. First, the global economy is making employers go obsolete faster than the worker jobs that are being outsourced. It is very tough to be an employer in a global market. There are government regulations to cover certain classes of employees. Unions to contend with. Minimum wage laws. Rising costs for pensions and health insurance. And meanwhile, some plant in China is undercutting the market for the corporation's goods and services.
How to compete? Well, the biggest expense (from a corporate point of view) is labor. How can we cut labor to the bone? Lots of ways, in fact. Outsource where you can. Make hourly workers all part-time (remember the phrase "certain classes of employees"?). Don't match the defined contribution funds. Don't provide health benefits (for certain classes of employees). And so on.
But the biggest cost savings would come from paying a premium - a real big premium - for talent who can manage outsourcing, a staff of part-timers, fighting unions, demands for pensions and health insurance, and so on. You can provide six figure salaries to these talented people, and still come out with cost savings to make the bottom line positive.
So, I think I see forces that will shape the workplace as (at least) three classes: part-time hourly workers, outsourced workers, and very highly paid managers. Dickens would probably understand our world better than we do.