This is one of those absurdly busy days in the campaign world. Thus, it stands to reason that the Wrap is only slightly shorter than "War and Peace" tonight. So, without further hesitation, let's launch into it.
GA-Gov: Barnes Looking Competitive In His Comeback Bid
Kudos to Rasmussen Reports (yes, you heard right...) for being the first pollster to actually venture past the gubernatorial primaries in the Peach State and poll the general election. The verdict: former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes makes it a race. Against GOP frontrunner John Oxendine, Barnes trails by just two points (44-42). Against either GOP Sec. of State Karen Handel or arch-conservative Congressman Nathan Deal, Barnes holds an infinitesimal edge of a single point (43-42).
PA-Sen: Ras Feeling A GOP Pickup in Keystone State
The Ras-a-Palooza continues today in the state of Pennsylvania. Their general election polling in the Senate race provides an interesting quirk: despite a solid lead in the Dem primary, incumbent Senator Arlen Specter actually does slightly worse than against likely GOP nominee Patrick Toomey than does primary challenger Joe Sestak. Rasmussen claims a nine-point lead for Toomey over Specter (49-40), while it claims that Sestak is not only closer to Toomey, but also holds him much farther under 50% (43-35).
MO-Sen: Ras Sees Lead For Blunt in Critical Open Seat
In a race that every pollster has had as pretty much a coin flip, Rasmussen is seeing at least a sliver of daylight in the Republican candidates's favor. The race is the critical toss-up in the Show Me State, where Rasmussen has a six-point edge for Republican Roy Blunt over Democrat Robin Carnahan (49-43). Most polls have had the race dead-even, or given Carnahan the slightest of advantages.
NY-Gov: Ras Sees A Lazio Surge In The Empire State
This could be one of those "grain of salt" polls for Rasmussen, as they head into the state of New York and look at the gubernatorial race. In a state where nobody has had likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio within thirty points in a heads-up battle with Democrat Andrew Cuomo, Rasmussen has Lazio within 19 points of Cuomo in their latest poll (54-35). In Rasmussen's defense, however, this is the same poll where they had Kirsten Gillibrand leading a generic Republican despite the inclusion of Harold Ford Jr. as an Independent candidate. Meanwhile, in the unlikely event that incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson survives an expected Cuomo primary, he would trail Lazio by seven points (45-38), according to the House of Ras.
CA-Sen: New Entrant Campbell Looks Like GOP Frontrunner
There are two items in the Wrap tonight that may well explain why former Congressman Tom Campbell switched last week from the GOP gubernatorial primary in California to the Senate primary.
The first is new data from the Field Poll, the venerable California firm that has been polling the Golden State since Hiram Johnson was a lad. The Field Poll gives Campbell a lead of five points in the Republican primary (despite him being arguably the most "moderate" candidate in the field). He has 30% of the primary vote, leading Carly Fiorina at 25% and hard-right candidate (and preferred choice of Sen. Jim DeMint) Chuck DeVore, who sits well back at 6%. In the general election, Campbell is also the most competitive candidate against Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer. The good news for Dems: Boxer has a double digit lead over all of them. Campbell trails by 10, while Fiorina and DeVore trail by 15 and 17 points, respectively.
The second reason why Campbell seems to have chosen well in his campaign switcheroo. GOP gubernatorial frontrunner Meg Whitman announced that she has tossed another $20 million into her campaign kitty, bringing her self-funding total to (holy Michael Bloomberg, Batman!!) a grand total of $39 million.
IL-Gov: Is The Democratic Primary Legitimately Competitive?
A new internal poll for Democratic state Comptroller Dan Hynes implies that his primary challenge to incumbent Governor Pat Quinn may well be tightening noticeably. Hynes' poll claims that Quinn, who had a twenty-ish point lead in public polling several weeks back, now leads Hynes by just seven points (44-37). He also claims that the campaign has exacted a pound of flesh from Quinn's favorables, which are net negative. The campaign has been occasionally nasty and, without question, expensive. Both Quinn and Hynes spent over $5 million in the last half of 2009 alone. The primary is now less than two weeks away, coming around on February 2nd. The GOP primary, meanwhile, is a coin flip, with several viable candidates, including former state AG Jim Ryan, state senator Kirk Dillard, and former state GOP chairman Andy McKenna.
NC-Sen: Good News/Bad News--Burr Wounded, But Still Leading Dems
If the Democrats fail to pick off freshman Senator Richard Burr in North Carolina, it is bound to sting. Burr is languishing with a job approval rating in the 30s, but he still holds a lead (PDF file) over leading Democrats, according to a new poll by PPP. Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall comes closest, but still trails Burr by seven points (44-37). Former state Senator Cal Cunningham (45-36) and attorney Ken Lewis (46-34) trail by slightly larger margins. Burr narrowly won election in 2004 over former Clinton administration bigwig Erskine Bowles.
CT-Gov: Post-Bysiewicz "Q" Poll A Bit of A Democratic Killjoy
A quick read of the new numbers for Quinnipiac in the state of Connecticut is going to leave a lot of Dems wishing Susan Bysiewicz hadn't ejected from the gubernatorial campaign (although facing two self-funders is one heck of an incentive). While the Democrats still lead in this new Q poll, the margins have been seriously truncated. Ned Lamont leads the Democratic primary, and he also leads likely GOP frontrunners Tom Foley (38-36) and Michael Fedele (41-32). Dan Malloy also leads the GOPers, with leads of 4-6 points over Foley and Fedele. Undecided is the big leader in both primaries to date, especially the GOP primary, where Foley leads the field with just 17% of the vote.
IN-09: FDL Sees Dire Democratic Straits in Hill-Sodrel Part V
The FDL/SurveyUSA Campaign Polling/Democratic Buzzkill tour rolls into southern Indiana today, as the latest poll shows Republican Mike Sodrel staked to an eight-point lead over Democratic incumbent Baron Hill (49-41). This is the fifth meeting between the two men, as Hill won in 2002, 2006, and 2008, while Sodrel scored the upset in 2004.
NY-23: New Poll Says If Hoffman Wants GOP Nod, He's The Favorite
Finally, an interesting set of numbers out of upstate New York. The Gouverneur Times, which occasionally seemed to be a branch office of the Hoffman for Congress campaign during last fall's special election, is flogging an internal poll from Team Hoffman claiming that he holds a 56-22 lead over Barclay, with no other prospective GOPer getting more than 4% of the vote.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- TX-Gov: The surrogates are lining up quickly in the Lone Star State, where the "Clash of the Titans" between Republican Governor Rick Perry and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is picking up steam. Lining up behind Hutchison is former President George H.W. Bush ("41"), while Sarah Palin is planning on stumping for Perry on Super Bowl Sunday. Meanwhile, here is an interesting indicator that Democrats might find Perry to be their favored opponent. One of Perry's single largest contributor (to the tune of fifty grand) was an Austin donor who has contributed almost exclusively to Democrats over the past few years.
- KY-Sen: Saying that the Brown upset had less to do with a rising GOP tide and more to do with voter anger over Washington not getting tough on things like Wall Street malfeasance, state Attorney General Jack Conway officially filed for the United States Senate. Conway has been locked up in a tight Democratic primary against state Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo, while the GOP primary looks to be a fascinating battle between Sec. of State Trey Grayson and physician Rand Paul, the son of Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
- WI-Sen: A new article late last night from Politico hints that former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson might be back into the 2010 electoral sweepstakes after all. He'd arguably be the strongest Republican alternative against three-term Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, although some polling in late 2009 implied that even the presence of Thompson might not make this race a toss-up. A November poll from PPP had Feingold leading Thompson by nine points (50-41).
- AL-05: First his staff turned their back on him, and now it appears that newly-minted GOP Congressman Parker Griffith is getting the cold shoulder from his new party. A second party committee in his Northern Alabama district has made it clear that they are disinterested in Griffith representing their party as its nominee in 2010. Griffith is facing a serious GOP primary challenge from Mo Brooks and Les Phillip. Dems are still casting about for a candidate in this district.
- MA-03/MA-05/MA-10: Apparently, the Brown victory in Massachusetts has the GOP feeling their oats a little bit. The GOP is talking seriously about gunning for a trio of Democratic House incumbents in the Bay State. Democrats have held all ten House seats in Massachusetts for more than a decade. One potential big name in the mix: former state treasurer Joe Malone, who confirmed that he is extremely interested in challenging Bill Delahunt in the 10th district. Northeastern Massachusetts Rep. Niki Tsongas and Worcester Rep. Jim McGovern are also evidently on the target list.
- MS-01: Never let it be said that Fox News is anything other than fair-and-balanced. One of their political talkers, Angela McGlowan, is in conversations with the NRCC about making a Congressional bid against Democratic Rep. Travis Childers. This could get a little complicated for the NRCC--they have already shown a great deal of affection for state legislator Alan Nunnelee, who has raised a ton of cash for his bid against Childers.
- By the way, if you are wondering who has called it quits in Campaign 2010, the team at Swing State Project is all over it, having updated their "Open Seat Watch".