January was an exceptionally busy month in the world of electoral politics, as evidenced by the "bursting at the seams" nature of the Wrap over the past few weeks.
Something tells me that February is going to be just as hectic...and, to make these lengthy recaps a little easier to follow, may I introduce a brand spanking new format for the nightly Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
AK-Sen: Murkowski Looks Good For Re-Election, Says PPP
A new poll out from PPP (pdf) gives freshman Republican Lisa Murkowski a solid 52-25 lead over a generic Democratic opponent. That might explain why, nine months out from Election Day, Democrats do not have a first-tier opponent for Murkowski.
FL-Sen: GOP Leads General, and Another Poll Confirms Crist Implosion?
Earlier today, Markos reported on a Rasmussen poll showing insurgent Marco Rubio crushing Governor Charlie Crist 49-37 in a GOP primary. Now comes word that there is a second poll confirming the huge Rubio lead. This one, by Tony Fabrizio, has Rubio up 44-30. As for the general election, the primary seems to matter little: either Rubio or Crist have large leads (15-17 points) over Democratic frontrunner Kendrick Meek.
KY-Sen: Sarah Palin Wades Into Contentious Primary
In a political marriage that could only take place in a political environment as strange as this one, Sarah Palin eschewed the establishment pick in the primary to replace Republican retiree Jim Bunning. Palin endorsed Rand Paul, the libertarian-esque physician who has suddenly snagged the upper hand in a battle with Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson. The GOP nominee will take on either Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway or Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo.
MO-Sen: Blunt Moves Into The Lead...In the Money Chase
About a week after a Rasmussen poll showed Republican Roy Blunt getting a little daylight between himself and likely Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan, recently released financial reports show that he has taken an edge in the money game, as well. Blunt raised in excess of $ 1.2 million for the fourth quarter, while Carnahan raised north of $ 800,000 in the same time period.
NY-Sen: New Poll Confirms Most of the CW on Empire State Race
Marist is out with new numbers in the U.S. Senate race in New York, finding that rookie Senator Kirsten Gillibrand still holds a sizeable lead over potential Democratic primary rival Harold Ford Jr. (44-27). Marist is also the first to poll the Senator against the only declared Republican opponent, Bruce Blakeman (she leads by a mile, 52-30). Against the undeclared George Pataki, Pataki leads 49-43. Contrary to the theory that a more conservative Ford would be more electable, Ford barely leads Blakeman (39-35) and gets thumped by Pataki (52-35).
WA-Sen: Evergreen GOPers Flog Poll To Lure Rossi Into Race
In a classic example of using a speculative poll to try to lure a candidate into the fold, Republican pollsters Moore Insight tested Democratic Senator Patty Murray against a non-candidate, two-time gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi. The poll had Rossi up 45-43. Politico asked about Rossi's interest in the race. He did not sound too enthusiastic about the prospect, but he also did not slam the door shut on a bid, either.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AK-AL: Young Starts 2010 Campaign With Solid Lead, Says PPP
The crew at PPP also polled the race for Congress in Alaska, where longtime GOP incumbent Don Young is being challenged by Democratic state legislator Harry Crawford. While Crawford manages to hold the ancient Young (first elected in 1973) under the 50% safety threshold, Young nevertheless posts a double-digit lead (49-35).
AR-02: Two Dem Prospects Bow Out In Snyder Open Seat
This comes via a diary by ARDem over at Swing State Project: two prominent Democrats (Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola and former AG candidate Paul Suskie) have decided not to run for the seat opened up by the retirement of seven-term Democratic incumbent Vic Snyder. That leaves a trio still in the field: state House Speaker Robbie Wills, Snyder CoS David Boling, and state Senator Joyce Elliott.
IN-04: Bayh Gets Another Pass--Rokita to Run For House, Instead
Last week, in the wake of Mike Pence's somewhat surprise announcement that he would not challenge potentially embattled Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, all eyes turned to Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita. However, another major Hoosier GOP news event (the retirement of longtime Congressman Steve Buyer) pulled Bayh out of the fire, again. Rokita announced that he will run for the House, rather than the Senate. Though the GOP field is liable to be crowded (this is pretty red territory--even in Democratic 2008, John McCain carried the 4th by double digits), Rokita has to be considered an early favorite here.
MN-03: Dems Suffer Recruiting Setback With Bonoff Announcement
This has to be categorized as somewhat of a disappointment for Democrats--state Senator Terri Bonoff, who ran for Congress in 2008 and was upset in the Democratic primary by upstart Democratic candidate Ashwin Madia, has elected not to run for Congress in 2010 against rookie Republican Erik Paulsen. Democrats do have a pair of other hopefuls, with former Minnesota PTA President Jim Maffert and psychiatrist Maureen Hackett seeking the Democratic nomination.
NY-13: GOP Candidate Has Impressive Funding Numbers, But...
An amazing stat, courtesy of the crew from CQ: Republican Michael Grimm was on a fundraising tear during the 4th quarter of 2009, raising over three hundred thousand dollars. There is only one catch--the percent of cash raised inside the district? Roughly one percent. The Democratic incumbent, Michael McMahon, is sitting on about a million dollars on hand.
NY-14: One-Time Primary Aspirant Winds Up...Primaried
It has to a somewhat bitter irony for longtime Democratic incumbent Carolyn Maloney. The one time presumptive primary challenger to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand decided to forgo her Senate bid, only to find herself the recipient of a primary challenge of her own. The challenger is well-connected attorney Reshma Saujani, who has already raised over $ 400K for her bid.
TN-04: Lincoln Davis Is In For 2010
Another potential Democratic retirement fear has been alleviated. Lincoln Davis, the 66-year old Democratic incumbent who is facing a rapidly reddening district in central Tennessee, announced today that he will be seeking re-election in 2010. Davis' decision will probably forestall any first-tier Republican action in the district, and turn GOP attention to the open-seat contests in the 6th and 8th districts.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Money And Key Endorsers Talk in the Golden State
While the most amusing news out of California are a little further down the front page, there is actually other news in the gubernatorial race beyond the allegations of "threats" in the GOP primary. Jerry Brown announced his fundraising figures for 2009, announcing that he still has over twelve million dollars in the bank as he heads into 2010. Of course, both GOP frontrunners (Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner) have cut checks for more than that amount already.
Meanwhile, one of the few high-profile Republicans in the state is on the air touting Meg Whitman. Former Governor and Senator Pete Wilson is appearing in new advertising singing the praises of the former eBay executive.
MD-Gov: Is Climate Pushing Ehrlich Closer to a Comeback?
According to the Washington Post, the "Republican Resurgence" is pushing former GOP Governor Robert Ehrlich into a rematch with the man who knocked him from office in 2006: Democratic incumbent Governor Martin O'Malley. Ehrlich is scheduling a listening tour, as well as a schedule of fundraisers. Some Republicans want him to commit a little more explicitly: one local Republican strategist basically told Ehrlich to shit or get off the pot:
"If I were in charge, I would be banging on the men's room door," said Don Murphy, a former Maryland legislator and GOP strategist. "The question I would ask Bob Ehrlich is: If not now, when? It doesn't get any more simple than that."
MI-Gov: GOP Is In the Driver Seat, According to Local Pollsters
Respected Michigan pollsters EPIC-MRA went into the field to take the temperature of the Michigan Governor's race, and the numbers are a bit ugly for the blue team. Leading Democrat Denise Ilitch trails GOP Attorney General Mike Cox by double digits (48-30), while even hard-right Congressman Peter Hoekstra leads by seven points (42-35). Democratic House speaker Andy Dillon is in relatively similar straits, while Lansing's Democratic Mayor (Virg Bernero) trails by a bit more.
PA-Gov: Is Democratic Field About To Grow?
The sizeable Democratic field to replace incumbent Democratic Governor Ed Rendell, at present, lacks both a Philly native (Montgomery County's Joe Hoeffel comes closest) and an African-American candidate. Both of those gaps might be filled with the news that state Senator Anthony Williams is contemplating a bid. He might have a pretty strong endorser on entry--he is claiming some high-profile support from Philly Congressman Bob Brady.
...AND FINALLY
Tomorrow marks the first Congressional primaries of the 2010 Election cycle as all eyes fall on the Land of Lincoln. DK's own DavidNYC, over at Swing State Project gives as good a preview as you are going to find.