So ... many of us went to our DFL caucus last night. Many of because we want a DFLer to be our next Governor. So what? Well there are many implications going forward in the Minnesota Governor's race (MN-GOV), mainly for the RT Rybak and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher campaigns -- the race is wide open for them to win or lose. All campaigns will be working hard to get some delegates elected from the upcoming Senate District conventions.
Will John Marty, Paul Thissen and Tom Rukavina be able to get enough delegates together to get the 7-9% that their straw poll results indicate they might pull?
Obviously, the Rybak and MAK campaigns will more than likely go into the state conventions with 20% to maybe even 25% of the delegates committed to them. But what about the rest?
Any delegates Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza, Susan Gaertner and Steve Kelley elect will have choices after their candidates are dropped on the first ballot.
Then what?
-- cross-posted from MN Progressive Project, home of the Michele Bachmann Bizarro World --
Here's what ...
The Marty, Thissen and Rukavina block might compromise 25% of the delegates. Could they somehow build up a block of delegates capable of preventing endorsement?
Certainly. Especially if either Rybak or MAK are gaining ground toward an endorsement.
Assuming that 15% of delegates at the state convention are uncommitted, how many might vote for a candidate on the 2nd ballot? How any scenario plays out totally depends upon which candidate can show any momentum on the first three ballots.
If Rybak shows momentum then MAK might team up with the Marty-Thissen-Rukavina block to stymie an endorsement. And vice versa if MAK shows any momentum.
How will superdelegates, who predominantly support MAK, affect the convention?
Of course, a no endorsement plays right into the hands of Entenza and Dayton who are running to the primary regardless.
So ... here's your chance. What other scenarios do you see playing out?