We are at a crisis point where our political institutions are non-functional, our economic system is in tatters, and our society is pushing in different directions. (Almost sounds like a Seldon Crisis!)
So, how is all of this going to affect our 2 party system here in the U.S.? I've come up with a few possibilities below the fold.
*Note: I have retitled this diary because of a big freaking error on my part. The original title was "What's going to happen to the Two Party system?" when this diary is clearly about the parties, and not the system. I'm blaming the generic Nyquil I took last night, and the fact I wasn't paying attention to the title. Any misunderstandings are entirely my fault. Any posts prior to 5:00 PM PST that seem off topic are a result of this, and my apologies to the posters for making such a huge and glaring error.
Folks-
I’ve been watching something happening politically in this country with both interest and dread—the popularity of our two political parties dropping over time. If you go over to The Daily Kos this week and check their State of the Nation Poll and click on the Dem and GOP Party tab, you will find the results of their weekly poll done by Research 2000. The trendline for the last year is pretty clear—Democrats have been steadily falling in popularity and Republicans, after a significant plunge, have climbed back up to exactly where they were a year ago. That wouldn’t be much of a concern for anyone except both of the parties are well into negative territory, and have been for at least six months (the Republicans have never been positive in the last year.)
I believe that this really is due to the perception that the Democrats have no backbone (no matter who you choose to blame for it, you’re probably right) as well as the Republican’s constant demands that the Democrats be "Bi-Partisan" while contrarily refusing to work with them as well as other "Alice in Wonderthink" ideas like balancing the budget while simultaneously cutting taxes and leaving spending alone.
Now, in all honesty, the two political parties have never had a terribly high rating, but I feel that frustration in the general population is now nearing a head.
So why am I feeling both interest and dread from this? Because for the second time in my life, it opens the door to a new Third Party to come in and potentially sweep in the 2012 election cycle. The last time that we saw a popular third (or non) party candidate was in 1992, and I suspect that Ross Perot could have been our President had he not shown a seriously unstable streak by dropping out of the race and then reentering it.
The key questions are: "How will this happen," and "When will this happen?" Here are some possible starting points from our current situation:
- One or both parties come to their senses before 2012 and heal the country. This is a good potential outcome, but I believe the Republicans see no advantage to doing this, and the Democrats seem incapable of it.
- One or both parties split into two or more multiple parties. This is a big possibility for both parties. The Tea Party and Birther wings of the Republican Party have openly been pushing out moderates while the Right to Life wing has been ignored openly for decades (except during election times), and the more liberal parts of the Democratic Party are extremely unhappy with Democratic lawmakers inaction in the last year. While this seems like it could split the electorate of the country, I suspect that it would instead focus the electorate of the parties onto the candidates that could win, and pull them away from the losing ticket.
- A charismatic outsider with money starts a new political party that promises to get things done. I’m going to say that if this happens, all bets are off. There is no way to know how this will end up. It’s possible that a person like this could find themself unable to gain traction due to inertia in voting habits. It’s possible that such a person could take only the White House, but find themself unable to govern. It’s possible that they could have long coattails and take over Congress. Then, and only then, will we find out if they are any good or not. I think everyone will understand that before voting, but if the two main parties in this country are incapable of getting their act together in the next eighteen months, then voters could easily end up in the voting booth saying: "I know what will happen if I vote for either the Democrat or the Republican, and that’s not acceptable. I’d rather vote for the unknown guy and hope for the best." We could be lucky and get a good President out of this, or we could be unlucky and get someone who lets their ego get in the way of leading (or worse, declares a dictatorship.) There is no way to know ahead of time since the outsider is likely to have no public record to fall back on (and honestly, having money is no indicator of how someone will do as a public figure, no matter how they got it.)
I put these scenarios not in the order of likelihood, but in the order of when they could most likely happen. The parties could come to their senses tomorrow, or be taken over by people who care about the country more than their party by the mid-term elections later this year. The parties could split up before or after the mid-term elections this year if they refuse to change. Or a charismatic outsider could appear and create a new party for the 2012 Presidential Elections, and if nothing changes much or gets worse in the next eighteen months, I’d say this is the most likely scenario.
So here’s the dilemma: Will the "Party of NO!" suddenly grow up and work toward the good of all Americans? Will the "Party of No We Can’t" finally realize that they still outnumber the Republicans by a commanding amount and start doing something? Are there enough people in either party fed up enough to tell the worst members of their respective parties to shove-it? Or are we going to have to wait until the guy on the big white horse shows up to whisk us off to the big castle where everyone lives happily ever after (we seriously hope)?
It is clear that we will find out in due time. Here’s hoping the suspense (or inaction) doesn’t kill us first.
As always, comments, observations, corrections or trivia are welcome!
Poll Source:
The Daily Kos Weekly State of the Nation Poll (Feb. 1-4, 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...