I think you all know what this diary is about. I'm going to go through some of the numbers of tomorrow's health care vote. Let's see where things stand.
Here is a list of undecided votes, courtesy of the New York Times (previous vote precedes their name):
1 No Brian Baird (Wash 3)
2 Yes Marion Berry (Ark. 1)
3 No Rick Boucher (Va. 9)
4 No Lincoln Davis (Tenn. 4)
5 No Glenn Nye (Va. 2)
6 No John Tanner (Tenn. 8)
7 Yes Jerry F. Costello (Ill. 12)
8 Yes Henry Cuellar (Tex. 28)
9 Yes Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa. 3)
10 Yes Joe Donnelly (Ind. 2)
11 Yes Steve Driehaus (Ohio 1)
12 Yes Paul E. Kanjorski (Pa. 11)
13 Yes Marcy Kaptur (Ohio 9)
14 Yes Daniel Lipinski (Ill. 3)
15 Yes Alan B. Mollohan (W.Va. 1)
16 Yes Earl Pomeroy (N.D.)
17 Yes Nick J. Rahall II (W.Va. 3)
18 Yes Bart Stupak (Mich. 1)
According to the NYT, the Dems have 207 solid yes votes, so they need 9 of these 18 to vote yes. Well, they need 8 now, because Cuellar announced that he will vote yes. Nye just announced he will vote no. That leaves 16 undecided, and the Dems need 8 of them.
At this point, let me address the major problem with both this and the FDL whip count. The NYT claims that Stupak has 12 on his side. FDL claims he has 10. The problem? That may not be true:
Here's why there is no deal with Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI): Roll Call reports House Democratic leaders appear to be succeeding in their push to peel off abortion-rights opponents lined up with Stupak against a health care overhaul.
"Stupak said those standing with him now number about six -- down from the rough dozen he has claimed for weeks. That is likely enough to put the majority within striking distance of the 216 votes they need for passage."
So let's say Pelosi has managed to take 6 of the Stupak block listed above. That gives the Dems 214 votes, which means they need 2 more. Subtract any of the 6 remaining Stupak names, and that means you need 2 votes from 10 undecided. Let's say Cuellar is one of the 6. Then you subract 5 more from the NYT list, and you need 3 from 10.
Of course, Stupak's remaining group isn't totally out of play. They are considering accepting an executive order on abortion language, and if they do accept it, that would guarantee passage. But you could get it without them. Brian Baird has been rumored to be leaning yes, which would leave 1 or 2 more votes. This is very doable. In fact, it's pretty likely. But if one of these folks in your rep, or if you're nervous, get on the phone and get to work.
Thanks to mindoca and casperr, here is some help if you want to get involved:
OFA Call Congress Tool
OFA Letter Writing Tool
If you want to take a 2nd look at the diaries written by mindoca and casperr, here they are:
mindoca's diary
casperr's diary