Hawaii is widely considered the bluest state in America. The state Senate and Legislature have been dominated by large Democratic majorities since 1954. Governor Linda Lingle who was elected in 2002, was the state's first Republican governor in 40 years (and given her current low job approval ratings, likely to be its last for some time). Hawaii has voted Democratic in every election except the 1972 and 1984 contests, when the state gave wins to Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, respectively. Hawaii sent Obama to the White House by a 72% to 27% margin.
Currently of the 50 states, Obama enjoys the highest approval ratings in 2009, with an average of nearly 71% approving of his overall job performance from January through December of 2009. Only the District of Columbia delivered a higher average approval rating (90.2%)
In other words, we're as blue as our skies and our crystal clear waters. As blue as Marilyn Monroe in denim. As blue as Paul Newman's eyes looking at a Bora Bora lagoon. As blue as...well, you get the point. So why is it that Hawaii's first congressional district may very well send a Republican to Congress on May 22 for the first time in more than twenty years?
The story starts with the resignation of Neil Abercrombie from Congress. Abercrombie, a reliable liberal Democrat and a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has represented Hawaii's first Congressional district since 1991. In the 2008 election, he won with 70.6% of the vote. He announced on December 11, 2009 that he would be resigning from congress to concentrate on his run for Governor. His last day in office was March 1, 2010, right in the midst of the healthcare battle.
Abercrombie's decision to resign from Congress at a time when every Dem vote was needed has earned him a lot of criticism. In addition, the mail-in only special election to be held May 22 to replace him will cost Hawaii taxpayers $920,000, which is coming from a fund designated for neighbor island school repair and maintenance. Abercrombie's competition, Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann, has been eager to capitalize on the problems raised by Abercrombie's untimely resignation. But that's for another diary.
The end result is that in accord with state rules, the May 22 special election will be held without a primary, meaning all candidates from all parties will run against one another and the person with the most votes (even if only a plurality) wins; there is no runoff.
The race quickly attracted two Democratic candidates from very different wings of the Democratic Party, progressive Colleen Hanabusa and Blue Dog Ed Case. Case, an attorney and former Congressman, was first elected in 2002 in a special election to fill the seat of Patsy T. Mink, who died of pneumonia. Case allegedly inisisted on a special election to fill the remaining weeks of Mink's term, even though many party leaders wanted Mink's husband, John, to have the honor. It wouldn't be the last time Case rankled the party. In 2006 Case chose not to run for another term in the House of Representatives so he could challenge Senator Daniel Akaka in the Democratic primary for Akaka's U.S. Senate seat. Case lost the primary election by a respectable 53% to 46% margin considering he was up against the beloved Akaka. But in the process he managed to seriously piss off the Hawaii party machine not to mention a fair amount of voters who didn't like that Case made Akaka's age a campaign issue.
Late last year, Case cited internal polling to support his contention that the drama created by his 2006 run against Akaka was water under the bridge. Hanabusa quickly weighed in, calling on Case to drop out of the race, and calling him "not forgiven", "not a team player" and "not a consensus builder". Hanabusa's view of the situation seemed to be validated when virtually the entire state Democratic leadership, including both Akaka and Senator Dan Inouye, threw their support behind Hanabusa. Inouye, who isn't exactly a progressive, hasn't even tried to pretend it's about issues, declaring "Part of it is personal. I don't like the way he (Case) proceeded to run against Dan Akaka".
Hanabusa, President of the state Senate, is widely considered a progressive with strong labor backing. The AFL-CIO threw its support behind her officially this week with mailers that go for Case's jugular. She's supported by EMILY's list, and the Hawaii State Teacher's Union.
Hanabusa did herself no favors when she ran a campaign ad touting her vote to cut legislative salaries by 5%. The ad did not mention that the lawmakers had just received 36 percent pay increases. Bowing to the almost immedaite outcry at the boneheaded ad, Hanabusa pulled it, but by then, the damage had been done. Rumours began swirling that smelling blood and apparently already looking for a reason to stop remaining neutral, the DCCC was backing Case. Hanabusa and Inouye quickly asserted that the DCCC had promised to remain neutral. But the DCCC then, according to Politico, refuted that claim, refusing to rule out a Case endorsement.
It should be noted what with all the bashing of Ed Case as a conservaDem, on at least some social issues Case is reliably liberal. Case has a good record as a strong gay rights advocate. As a state legislator in 1997, Case cast the lone nay vote against advancing a bill that would allow a referendum to (effectively) constitutionally ban gay marriage. When he was up for re-election in November 1998, he publicly opposed the referendum. His reasoning: "changing the Constitution would go against its intended purpose — protecting the rights of the minority against the will of the majority." Unfortunately the referendum was popular with the public, and passed by a wide margin. Case's stance was courageous in light of this. In 2001, Case co-sponsored an unsuccessful civil unions bill.
And Hanabusa, while definitely the most liberal candidate in the race, can't be viewed as an unabashed progressive. In 2008, the state Sierra Club gave her a pedestrian 57 out of 100 environmental rating (by comparison, her Senate colleague J. Kalani English received a rating of 85). And last year she voted to table same-sex civil union bill HB444, though she supported a new version of the bill this year that was ultimately quashed by the House.
However, one has to look no further than these two candidates answers to the Progressive Democrats of Hawaii candidate questionnaires to see the stark differences. Re: immigration, Hanabusa believes in amnesty under certain reasonable conditions, Case doesn't under almost any circumstances. Hanabusa advocates ending our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and increased stimulus to reduce the deficit, Case advocates a balanced budget amendment and caps on spending. Case's television ads brag about "taking on fellow Democrats" with a tone that would make Blanche Lincoln proud. (However, it should be noted that Hanabusa's most recent ads tout her as a "political maverick" "bucking the party establishment").
So this interparty warfare brings us to candidate three in this free for all, affable Republican Charles Djou. Djou sits on the Honolulu City Council, and has one term as a state legislator. He's by far the least experienced and least well-known of the candidates. But Djou has been increasingly looking like the cat that ate the canary as the Dems go at it. Polling has been few and far between, but a supposed internal DCCC poll shows Djou and Case tied at 32%, and Hanabusa moving rapidly upward, but still polling behind both with 27%. As a sidenote, Jane Hamsher today calls into question the DCCC poll, and declares that Hanabusa has been "clearly winning" the race. Hamsher even goes so far as to say Obama has greenlighted bringing down Hanabusa. I don't know where she gets this from. There is no one I know that lives here that ever saw Hanabusa ahead in this thing, let alone "clearly winning", although she has made up admirable ground over the last few weeks. Hamsher should cite her sources. Moreover, Hanabusa herself is citing the DCCC poll in an email to supporters today, strongly indicating that her own internal polling must be finding something similar to the DCCC poll.
Regardless, the prospect of a Republican pickup in Hawaii has the right positively salivating. One site recently breathlessly called Djou "the next Scott Brown". It's not hard to see that Djou may win this thing. But...would that necessarily be such a bad thing?
Open Left today posed the very good question Would Losing A Seat for Six Months Really Be So Bad? The truth is, it's difficult to imagine any scenario under which Djou would win in the general election in November. The right can dance in the streets all they want should he win this thing in May, but how much damage can the guy do in six months? Moreover, as Open Left theorizes, it might be far preferable to have Djou for six months and give Hanabusa time to regroup and win the primary this fall than to have Case win and be a Blue Dog vote for a decade or more. Of course, on the other hand, Case might still be the favorite in the September primary, and there are real concerns that the public might blame Hanabusa for a Djou victory. While a Djou win can't honestly be seen as any kind of commentary on Obama or Democrats, what with the two Democratic candidates likely still getting 60% or more of the vote, the far right has already overblown the mere prospect of a pickup in Obama's home state. A Djou special election win could help the right to widen the 'enthusiasm gap' as we head into the midterms.