Just before 5 pm British Summer Time today, the last seat to be decided in the General Election was announced. The Conservatives held West Devon and Torridge, giving them 306 seats. Labour has 258, the Liberal Democrats 57, Democratic Unionists (a protestant bloc in Northern Ireland) won 8, the Scottish National Party 6, Sinn Fein (Irish republicans) 5, Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) 3, Social Democratic & Labour Party (Irish Catholics) 3, Greens 1, Alliance (anti-sectarian Northern Irish) 1, and House of Commons Speaker (technically neutral) 1. Owing to the death of a UKIP candidate on the ballot, voting for the seat for Thirsk and Malton will happen in 3 weeks. In short, everyone lost except the Greens, who have their first ever British MP.
Of course, losing in politics comes in many difference flavors. For Labour, this was a crushing defeat. They lost 91 seats and got just 29.1% of the popular vote. Two former Home Secretaries (one of THE BIG JOBS along with Foreign Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer, which handles all the money) lost their seats, as did the solicitor general. Farther down the greasy pole, at least ten ministers were voted out of the Commons. The technical term for that is "bad."
Given the math, even a formal coalition with the Liberal Democrats doesn’t get Labour a majority in the House of Commons (just 315, rather than the necessary 326). Going after the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the SDLP in addition to the LibDems would just make it – and it would be like herding cats to keep that kind of gang together.
The Liberal Democrats did what they always do (at least since, I got involved with them in 1981) – their votes failed to live up to the opinion polls. They actually lost 5 seats. Once again, the mould of British politics goes unbroken. And yet, because the Tories did so badly, there is realistic talk of formal coalition with them and LibDem ministers in Cabinet. For the LibDems, this defeat goes on their very long list of "moral victories."
As for the Conservatives, they failed to win an outright majority – they’re 20 votes short. Given that they were running against a government presiding over the last 13 years of screw-ups, the worst recession in 70 years, and led by a personally unpopular Prime Minister, the Tories have a lot of explaining to do. How do you not win a majority under such circumstances? Still, David Cameron will be Prime Minister because the Conservatives form the largest bloc. (People just didn’t believe me when I said that every time someone votes Tory, a fairy dies). The question is whether he leads a Lib-Con coalition or a minority government.
Among the minor parties, they either lost seats or failed to make the expected break-through, which hurts only a little less. The DUP lost David Robinson, whose other job is being First Minister of Northern Ireland – the Alliance Party won its only seat from him (sex and money scandal with a twist, his wife was sleeping with a teenage boy). The SNP hoped for 20 seats, and was lucky to keep its 6. Plaid Cymru picked up a seat in Wales, but having 3 out of 40 Welsh seats doesn’t speak well for the nationalists. The only party to "win," and by that I mean achieve its objectives, was the Green Party, which finally elected an MP after decades of trying.
So, now what? Well, constitutionally, Gordon Brown has the right as current PM to try to form a government. But we’ve already had statements from him, the LibDems’ Nick Clegg and Tory leader David Cameron, and Gordo is passing his turn. The Conservatives won the most seats with the highest number of votes, so morally, they get first shot at it. And Nick Clegg agrees.
Mr. Cameron, this afternoon, made a 10-minute statement pointing out that he could fashion an agreement with other parties to allow the Tories to govern as a minority. In exchange for certain considerations, the smaller parties would agree to let the Queen’s Speech vote and the Budget pass (defeat on either would force the government to resign). This is known in the business as "confidence and supply."
Then as an alternative, he set out his "big, open and comprehensive" offer to Mr. Clegg. He offered a deal on the debt, social problems and the "broken political system." He noted that the two parties agree on a pupil premium for funding schools, that Labour’s National Insurance Contribution increase is a jobs tax and both agree it shouldn’t happen, that both parties are pro-civil liberties, both oppose a national ID card, and both favor a low-carbon economy.
He also set out his redlines. No more political power goes to Europe; immigration must be controlled, defense policy is not negotiable (Britain’s nuclear deterrent is a big dividing issue between the two parties)
On the grand issue of political reform, his opening bid was far short of the LibDems desires. He proposed an all-party committee on political and electoral reform (a talking shop about ideas for change without real power). He also said that he favors equal sized constituencies under a first-past-the-post voting system. If he goes much further, he is going to face rebellion from his own party. And remember, this is a Tory leader who failed to win a majority. Don’t think for a minute that the party is united behind him if he promises too much. David Davis and Liam Fox lost out in the leadership fight, and politicians have long memories about that kind of thing. Knives can be sharpened quickly by them and others with some ambition.
As for Mr. Clegg, he has a meeting of his party’s executive tomorrow. He can’t just say "David, we’re in." He will probably get license to negotiate on the deal from the executive committee, but he’ll still have to sell it to them afterwards. And there is a provision in the Liberal Democrats’ constitution for the entire paid-up membership of the party to vote on any deal. I expect that the rank-and-file won’t accept anything short of reworking the electoral system.
If that’s the case, if the Lib-Con arrangement can’t work (but negotiations are strange things – maybe the LibDems swallow their pride in exchange for cabinet seats), and if we rule out a Lib-Lab-hangers-on bare majority, the result is a Conservative minority government with "confidence and supply." Such a government will have a shelf-life of 18-24 months. The reason is pretty simple. If things go badly for the UK, the other parties will see a chance to grab more seats in a new Parliament, and they’ll defeat the government on a vote of confidence. If things go well, Mr. Cameron will want to finish the job by winning a majority. As PM, he can call an election anytime he wants, and if some good news drives his poll numbers up, a snap election could follow.
It’s going to be a long weekend of horse trading, and in the end, I figure Mr. Cameron will go it alone.
Is there any good news in this? Yes, of course. First off, the Greens made a breakthrough under a ridiculously unfair system. Change can happen, and it has in Brighton. Also, Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King has said that the cuts needed to get Britain’s house in order will have to be so severe that the political party enacting them will be out of office for a generation. I like the sound of that, The Last Conservative Prime Minister, David Cameron.
Also, the British National Party lost not only its attempts to win seats at Westminster, but they also lost Barking and Dagenham Council in east London. All 12 BNP councilors lost their seats. In Epping Forest, it lost three councilors, two in in Sandwell and one in Leeds. These fascists still need watching, though, as they got 1.9% of the vote, over half a million.
And a final observation before the week-end, British music tends to be much better under the Conservatives or minority governments. Tories were in 1955-1964 under Eden, Macmillan and Douglas-Home, and some guys called the Beatles happened. From 1970-74, Ted Heath was PM, and we got Led Zepplin and Black Sabbath. Labour’s Jim Callaghan led a minority government from April 1976 to 1979, and we got the Clash, the Sex Pistols, the Jam, Elvis Costello and Siouxsie and the Banshees, all of which lived on into the Thatcher years save the Pistols. Of course, Maggie Thatcher did more for pop music than anyone because she put so many people on the dole -- there was nothing to do but play music. She gave us all the Specials, English Beat, Bauhaus, New Order, Madness and The Cure.
I’m sure some of the younger readers will argue that there was some decent music in Britain after 1997 when New Labour government came in. But, kiddiwinks, who do ya’ think killed BritPop? That’s right, Tony Blair!
So, tune up the guitar, and get ready for the cuts. The Tories are back! God help us! Next election? I’m betting before Christmas 2011.