An eddy spinning off of the Loop current captured spilled oil at the end of last week then pulled it into the Loop current.
Meanwhile the press was reporting the "success" of the 4 inch pipe. A 4 inch pipe has approximately 3.6% of the capacity of the 21 inch main pipe. It's like a garden hose in a broken fire hydrant.
Oil begins to be rapidly transported by the Loop Current.
Oil has moved over 1 degree south in 2 days.
Oil is rapidly transported south in the Loop current. The oil hits an artificial boundary condition on the south in the model.
The model pools oil at its southern artificial boundary. However, the model shows currents speeding up and turning towards the Florida Keys.
UPDATE
MODIS May, 17, 2010 Terra true color
Bright sunglint is not oil. The oil is the shiniest silver area that looks like the model's forecast.
Jeff Master's analyzes the satellite photo on his blog.
UPDATE 2
Jeff Masters' analysis:
Why is oil getting into the Loop Current?
The winds over the oil spill location are offshore out of the northwest today, and offshore winds will continue intermittently through Wednesday, which should allow a substantial amount of oil to enter the Loop Current.
The major reason oil is moving southwards is because of the instability of the currents in the Gulf of Mexico. The Loop Current is not a stable feature, and tends to surge northwards and southwards in a chaotic fashion, and in response to changes in the prevailing winds. Over the past week, chaotic behavior of the Loop Current and a clockwise-rotating eddy just to its north, just south of the oil spill location, have combined to bring a current of southward-moving surface water to the oil spill location. As strong on-shore winds from the southeast slackened this past weekend, oil has been drawn southward into the Loop Current. The latest NOAA trajectory forecasts failed to anticipate the movement of the oil into the Loop Current. The latest surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model show that oil could continue pouring into the Loop Current for most of the rest of the week. It is highly uncertain how diluted the oil might get on its voyage to northwestern Cuba and the Florida Keys this week, but the possibility for a major ecological disaster in the fragile Keys ecosystem cannot be ruled out. Southeast to east winds of 10 - 15 knots are expected to develop late this week and extend into early next week, which may be strong enough to impose a surface current that will shut off the flow of oil into the Loop Current by Friday or Saturday.