The elections are 5 months away, so I am going to start this series again, updating my earlier ones.
AL: 7 CDs, 4 Rep 3 Dem. Vul: Bright (D) in AL-02. Possibly AL-05 (now open, was D and then R), if the tea party candidate is crazy enough
Primary runoff - July 13
AK: 1 CD, a Rep, does not look vulnerable
Primary - Aug 24
AZ: 8 CDs, 3 Rep., 5 Dem; none look very vulnerable. Possibly AZ-05 (D)
Primary - Aug 24
AR: 4 CDs, 1 Rep., 3 Dem.; AR-1 and AR-2 are somewhat vulnerable, both now D
Primaries finished.
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
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District: AL-01
Location : the southwest part of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the Gulf of Mexico. It has a weird finger taken out of it, that is part of AL-07 map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Jo Bonner (R)
VoteView ranking 310/447
First elected 2002
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Bonner won the primary, and has no Democratic opposition.
Demographics A low-income ($34K, rank = 345), rural (36%, rank = 100), conservative district
Assessment No opponent.
District: AL-02
Location The southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA, and including Montgomery map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Bobby Bright (D)
VoteView rating NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 50-50; 1,700 votes of 485,000 cast
2006 margin NA
2004 margin 71-28
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents Martha Roby (establishment) and Rick Barber (Tea Party) are in a runoff to face Bright in November
Demographics Similar to the 1st, but poorer (med income = $32K, rank = 378) and more rural (50%, rank = 48th).
Assessment This was open in 2008, as Terry Everitt retired. As of 5/12, Bright had $600K cash on hand (COH) and minor debts. Roby had $178K COH. Barber had $14K COH. Bright is somewhat vulnerable. Tossup according to SSP.
District: AL-03
Location Most of the eastern part of AL, bordering GA, including Talladega and Tuskegee map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Mike Rogers (R)
VoteView rating 299/447
First elected 2002
2008 margin 53-47 over Joshua Segall
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 2008 43-56
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Joshua Segall has dropped out. No other opponent.
Demographics Like the 1st and 2nd, but even more so. Median income is $31K (rank = 400); 32.2% Black (rank = 41st).
Assessment No opponent.
District: AL-04
Location Northern AL, but south of AL-05, runs from MS to GA map.
Cook PVI R + 26
Representative Robert Aderholt (R)
VoteView rating 311/447
First elected 1996
2008 margin 75-25 over Nicholas Sparks
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 2008 23-76
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents None declared.
Demographics The second most rural district in the country (73.5%) (only KY-05 is more rural).
Assessment No opponent.
District: AL-05
Location The northernmost part of AL, running from MS to GA, and borders TN. Includes Huntsville and Decautur map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Parker Griffith (D) but now R
VoteView rating NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Mo Brooks beat Griffith in the Republican primary. Steve Raby won easily on the Democratic side.
Demographics Not quite as poor as other AL districts.
Assessment SSP has this as "Likely R". As of 5/12, Raby had about $100K COH, Brooks about $150K.
District: AL-06
Location More or less the middle of the state, but shaped like a V to allow AL-07 to include as many Blacks as possible map
Cook PVI R + 29
Representative Spencer Bacchus (R) May retire
VoteView rating 333/447
First elected 1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 2008 23-76
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Notes on opponents none
Current opponents Bachus won his primary easily. No Democrats are running.
Demographics One of the most Republican district per Cook PVI, only UT-03 is more so, and only TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 are equally so
Assessment No opponent.
District: AL-07
Location Mostly in western AL, bordering MS, this district has two 'fingers' to include more Blacks map
Cook PVI D + 18
Representative Artur Davis Retiring to run for governor
VoteView rating NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 2008 61-39
Bush margin 2004 35-64
Notes on opponents None close
Current opponents Sheila Smoot and Terri Sewell are in a runoff for the Democratic nomination. Sewell has about 10 times as much COH as Smoot.
Demographics The majority Black district in AL, it's got the 5th highest percentage of Blacks of any district in the USA (61.7%) (more so are IL-01, IL-02, LA-02 and MS-02) and the 5th lowest median income ($27K) (lower are CA-31, KY-05, NY-16 and WV-03)
Assessment Safe.
District: AK-AL
Location You know where Alaska is!
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Don Young (R)
VoteView ranking 320/447
First elected 1973
2008 margin 50-45
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 71-22
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 61-36
Current opponents Harry Crawford appears to be the only serious Democrat running. Young is being primaried by Andrew Halcro.
Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it's also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.
Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets, Young won narrowly in 2008, but this year may be easier for him. As of 3/31 Young had $273K COH, and Crawford had $55K.
District: AZ-01
Location The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO, with a chunk missing: map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick(D)
VoteView ranking 270/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2008
2008 margin 56-40 over Sydney Hay
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Paul Gosar, Bradley Beauchamp, and Russell Bowers are running.
Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place; and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)
Assessment Renzi (R) retired, and Kirkpatrick won fairly easily. Kirkpatrick has almost $800K COH. None of her opponents have raised much. Could be vulnerable, but McCain's total (and therefore the Cook PVI) was inflated by favorite son effect. SSP has it as "Lean D". I think it may be more D than that.
District: AZ-02
Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix: map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Trent Franks (R)
VoteView ranking 442/447
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over John Thrasher
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents None declared.
Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.
Assessment No opponent.
District: AZ-03
Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree: map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative John Shadegg (R) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 1994
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 42-57
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents For the Democrats:
Jon Hulbard is running. Hulbard looks like a blue dog, but anyone is better than Shadegg.
For the Republicans Pamela Gorman, Vernon Parker, Ed Winkler, Sam Crump Ben Quayle (Dan's son) and Jim Waring are running.
Demographics Not unusual on any of the statistics I track
Assessment This is Republican territory, but not overwhelmingly; Shadegg is a real rightwinger, but Lord lost in 2008.
Hulbard has about $300K. For the Repubs, see the FEC link. SSP has this as "likely R", but, I think "lean R" is more accurate. We'll see if the Republicans damage each other in the primary.
District: AZ-04
Location Phoenix and Glendale: map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Ed Pastor (D)
VoteView ranking 65/447
First elected 1991
2008 margin 72-21 over Don Karg
2006 margin 73-24
2004 margin 70-26
Obama margin 2008 66-33
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents Tom Pawlenko is running
Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).
Assessment Safe, although Pastor has not officially declared, he has $1.6 million COH.
District: AZ-05
Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe: map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Harry Mitchell (D)
VoteView ranking 230/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 53-45 over David Schweikert.
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents David Schweikert, Jim Ward, Chris Salvino and Eric Wnuck are running.
Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).
Assessment Mitchell beat Schweikert as a freshman, he should do so again, but this is not a shoo-in. SSP has this as "Lean D". Mitchell has $900K COH. Schweikert $500K COH; Ward just under $400K COH, Salvino about $100K and Wnuck about $100K. All the Republicans except Wnuck have lots of debt.
District: AZ-06
Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state: map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Jeff Flake (R)
VoteView ranking 445/447
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-35 over Rebecca Schneider
2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)
2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Scott Bergren and Easton Kelsey are primarying Flake, and then Schneider is running again.
Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).
Assessment This is a longshot; Flake is crazy, and wins easily. But I really like Schneider; I like her website (see above) and I like how she answered my questions here on dailyKos. Flake has around $900K COH, no info on Schneider.
District: AZ-07
Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico: map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Raul Grijalva (D)
VoteView ranking 24/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2002
2008 margin 63-33 over John Sweeney
2006 margin 61-34
2004 margin 62-34
Obama margin 2008 57-42
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Current opponents Ruth McClung and
Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)
Assessment Safe; Grijalva has only about $90K COH, and McClung has even less.
District: AZ-08
Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM: map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Gabrielle Gifford (D)
VoteView ranking 231/447 (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected 2006
2008 margin 55-43 over Tim Bee
2006 margin 54-42
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 46-52
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Jesse Kelly, Tom Carlson, Andy Goss, Brian Miller and Jonathan Paton are all running.
Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)
Assessment Giffords has now won twice, and should be OK again. She has nearly $2 million COH. Kelly has about $200K, Paton about $400K and the others little. SSP has this as only "lean D", but McCain got less than Bush (despite native son effect) and Giffords seems popular.
District: AR-01
Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS: map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Marion Berry (D) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 52-47
Current opponents For the Democrats: Chad Causey looks like a moderate. For the Republicans: Rick Crawford's site doesn't have that much on issues, but looks conservative.
Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 417) districts.
Assessment Berry's retirement makes this a very vulnerable seat. SSP has this as tossup, and here I think they may be being nice to the Democrats. Crawford has $183K COH, but $70K of debt. Causey has less than $40K COH.
District: AR-02
Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock: map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Vic Snyder (D) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents For the Democrats: Joyce Elliot looks very good. For the Republicans: Tim Griffin seems to be pretending to be a moderate, while espousing all the conservative talking points.
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Snyder won easily in the past, but now it's open. Griffin has about $300K, COH; Elliot about $30K. SSP has this as tossup, and that sounds right to me.
District: AR-03
Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK: map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Boozman (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 34-63
Bush margin 2004 62-36
Current opponents Democrats: David Whitaker looks like a moderate.
Republicans: Steve Womack is a rightwinger
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Neither Whitaker nor Womack has much COH. This looks like a Republican seat.
District: AR-04
Location Southern AR bordering LA, TX and OK: map
Cook PVI R + &
Representative Mike Ross (D)
VoteView ranking 213/447
First elected 2000
2008 margin 86-14 against Joshua Drake (Green)
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 2008 39-58
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Beth Rankin.
Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)
Assessment Safe; Ross, a moderate 'blue dog' has over $1 million COH, Rankin has less than $50K.