Julian Zelizer has some interesting insights on the Republicans' troubles in 2012. In today's op-ed piece, he speaks of the splintering of the Republican party into factions that can roughly be enumerated thus:
- The business faction, led by the disgusting Mitt Romney,
- The social conservative faction, which either has no leaders or too many, depending on how you look at it;
- Libertarians, led by Ron Paul;
- Foreign policy hawks, led by Dick Cheney
None of these factions, he argues, has a leader strong enough or charismatic enough - a Ronald Reagan - to challenge Barack Obama in 2012. This merely affirms what the CW has been saying ever since he took office.
Zelizer summarizes the Republicans' troubles about midway through the article.
The question for Republicans is whether anyone can hold this unwieldy coalition together. This is an area where the Republicans are extremely vulnerable. Republicans still have not recovered from the political implosion of their party in 2008.
Polls show that public approval of the Republicans remains low. Although more Americans are disapproving of the president, they still don't think very highly of the alternative. Also, Republicans, whose strategy has focused on obstructing Obama's agenda, have not developed a clear set of ideas and principles to define their party.
Zelizer is usually an interesting read, but most of what he said today consists of restating the obvious. Things are looking good for Obama in 2012. So where is the bad news in this?
He's talking about 2012, which in political terms is the next geological epoch.
Our problem is 2010. According to the pollsters and the pundits, the Democratic Party is about to be strapped to a gurney and wheeled into the death chamber by these very same leaderless and disarrayed Republicans. Chris Cilizza recently claimed that we could lose the Senate, and and nearly everyone not cheerleading for the Democratic Party thinks our chances of holding the House are no better than even. I've seen an increasing number of articles comparing this election year to 1994, and we all know how that came out.
Sure, Bubba went on to win reelection easily in 1996, just as Obama will. This is certainly a better future than we would have with the Republicans in total control, but all we can expect from this is a mix of absolutely awful legislation or total gridlock, and let's not forget a possible impeachment try.
I'm just restating the obvious here, too. However, the question that nags me is this: how can the Republican Party, which is still splintered and bloody from the last two elections, which is virtually leaderless, which has accomplished utterly nothing except whipping their base into a foaming-at-the-mouth frenzy, be in a position to take over Congress?