A new Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute poll out today verifies the lead by Democrat Mark Dayton reflected in this past weekend's Star Tribune poll..
From the Minnesota Public Radio website:
A new Minnesota Public Radio News-Humphrey Institute poll shows Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton with a significant and growing lead over Republican Tom Emmer.
A month ago, the poll showed Dayton and Emmer deadlocked at 34 percent each. But the latest survey shows Dayton with an 11 percentage point lead over Emmer -- 38 to 27 percent.
Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who had 13 percent a month ago, now has 16 percent according to the new poll.
So what's changed?
"The big story in September is that the Democrats have woken up from their summer slumber," said University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs, who oversaw the poll.
"When you go back to August, you find 57 percent of Democrats who are likely to vote saying that they had only a little or really no interest in voting come November," Jacobs said. "Now we found a substantial 83 percent of Democrats saying they have a great deal or a fair amount of interest in this election."
That 83 percent enthusiasm number for Democrats matches the Republicans', meaning the GOP has lost the edge in election excitement it had enjoyed over Democrats.
The big surprise is the effect of Independence Party candidate Tom Horner on the race, who appears to be stealing more Republicans away from Tom Emmer than Democrats from Mark Dayton. That is having a major impact on the polling.
The poll also shows more than one in five Republicans, or 22 percent, plan to vote for Horner instead of Emmer. That's more than double the 10 percent of Democrats who say they plan to vote for Horner rather than Dayton.
Jacobs said those numbers point to trouble for Emmer.
"Republicans are turning away from him," Jacobs said. "Tom Horner's campaign -- (which) is heavily pitched to Republicans, and arguing that Emmer is too conservative -- appears to be really hitting pay dirt."
Minnesotans generally don't like extremist candidates, which is why Republican Tom Emmer is having problems. And with Tom Horner hitting the airwaves with commercials appealing to independants and moderates, the threat has always been that he would steal votes from the most extreme candidate, which is the Republican.
Needless to say, GOTV is still important, but this is good news for November. Finally having a Democratic governor after 22 years will make a world of difference for Minnesota. Yeah!!