Orakzai tribal agency may not be on the actual border with Afghanistan, or even on the border of North Waziristan, but it does border Khyber and Kurram tribal agencies. Many of the Taliban attacks launched on the bomb-scarred city of Peshawar are launched from there. The area is a stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban, having been under the sway of TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud since before his successor, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in a drone strike last year. Many of the militants who fled Operation Rah-e-Najat in South Waziristan have gone to the area. Back in early December there were signs that Pakistan was preparing to focus on the Orakzai tribal agency. It shouldn't surprise those who have been following my round-ups that the offensive into Orakzai appears imminent.
It's been clear for awhile that Pakistan's military favors the incremental approach. Peak by peak, village by village, one step at a time to make sure they don't end up surrounded. First they pushed the Taliban out of North-West Frontier Province(although some clashes still take place), which pretty much serves as a buffer between the rest of Pakistan and the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas. Then they went into the Mehsud-controlled regions of South Waziristan, pushing the TTP north into North Waziristan and the agencies further north; Kurram, Khyber, and Orakzai. Paramilitary Frontier Corps have been softening the area up for months.
The offensive into Orakzai will likely push the militants closer to the border with eastern Afghanistan and into North Waziristan. The idea being to push them back even further. While some, including myself, believe this is part of an incremental push towards North Waziristan, there is plenty of room for debate on that.
According to Dawn, all routes into Orakzai have been closed by the predominately-Pashtun Frontier Corps. Troops are coming into villages to gather support from local tribesmen. And yes, a number of would-be non-combatants have migrated from the area. Dawn sources say that thousands of militants are taking up defensive positions, suggesting that they will at least try to fight the Pakistani security forces as they did in South Waziristan.
Hakimullah Mehsud is widely believed to be in either Orakzai agency or North Waziristan. He is Pakistan's most wanted.