Political watchers, and Democrats in particular, will undoubtedly have their eyes on the polls this week in the aftermath of President Obama's State of the Union Address last night. Democrats may well be hoping for a resurrection of the Obama popularity that propelled him into office in 2008, and sustained during much of early 2009.
Democrats, nervous about 2010 and not doubt hoping for a Post-SOTU bounce, are possibly going to be left wanting, as Mark Blumenthal explained yesterday:
These speeches rarely affect a president's public standing in a meaningful way, despite the amount of attention they receive.
[A Gallup report] includes a table showing the level of presidential approval measured immediately before and after the last 27 State of the Union addresses. "Across all presidents," they report, "the average change in approval has been less than a one percentage-point decline."
It is also keeping in mind, as I wrote on the old Mystery Pollster blog four years ago, that the one big exception to the rule -- the apparent 10 percentage point jump for Bill Clinton in 1998 -- was a very unique presidential address [due to the breaking Lewinsky scandal].
Incredibly positive Post-SOTU instant polling is heartening, to be sure. But it is also not atypical. Last night, in his immediate analysis of the SOTU, Blumenthal noted that while 78% of CNN viewers had at least a "somewhat positive" response to the address, that fell within the normal range of results for such post-address instant polling. That probably stems from two things: (1) the general tendency of such addresses to be watched disproportionately by supporters of the President; (2) the nature of such speeches, which are carefully crafted for mass appeal.
If the President's job approval or favorabilities rise as a result of the address, then Democrats can be heartened by that. But it, ultimately, isn't that meaningful. Bounces are ephemeral, by nature, and what goes up invariably comes back down.
Besides, the peril in 2010 is not necessarily the president's job approval. After all, Obama's job approval right now is only a point or two below where President Bush was in 2004 (when the GOP more than held their own in the Congressional battlefield). Furthermore, his job approval is substantially better than President Bush's numbers were before either the 2006 or 2008 elections.
Job approval, for the 2010 cycle, should take a backseat to the stat that everyone should have their eye on this week: voter intensity.
As our Daily Kos "State of the Nation" tracking poll has chronicled for several weeks, there is a substantial gap in voter intent for 2010. Last week, those numbers showed among the widest gaps seen to date:
QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?
(% of voters def or prob vote/% of voters not likely or def not vote)
Republicans: 82/17
Democrats: 54/43
This is the stat to watch this week. Temporary bumps in job approval or favorabilities are nice, and could certainly shape a helpful narrative for a news cycle or two. But bridging the chasm of voter intensity that exists right now between the two parties is a much larger and much more important goal. If Obama was able to get that ball rolling with his performance last night, it will speak to a much greater degree about the health of the Democratic majority come November.