You know you're behind when the campaign pollster-strategist is forced to send out a memo saying you can still win. Meanwhile, the new guy is capitalizing on the honeymoon. That's what's happened in the 24 hours after Chris Dodd has pulled out of the CT Senate race.
Two stories in the Hartford Courant tell the tale. For Democrats, it's all about rallying the troops and doing some fund-raising for the well known Richard Blumenthal.
"Connecticut Democrats need your help now. The clock is ticking. We need to send Richard Blumenthal to Washington so he can make Connecticut's citizens a priority in the United States Senate. Thank you for all that you have done to support Connecticut Democrats in the past. Click here to contribute as your financial support is crucial if we are to send Richard Blumenthal to the United States Senate!
"Sincerely,
"The Connecticut Democrats
And for the Republicans, it's all the reasons Dick Blumenthal can't count his chickens yet, courtesy of Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of the suddenly behind Rob Simmons. The 'leaked internal memo' (.pdf), designed for media consumptions says, among other things:
Certainly this won't be a walk. But Blumenthal is well known, can raise money, and is no stranger to state office or public scrutiny. At the same time, Simmons and Linda McMahon on the R side will have to rejigger their campaign to not run against Dodd (for the GOP, it was all about Dodd.) CW in CT is that with her money and 'outsider status', McMahon gets a boost, whereas Simmons is a former congressman and though he can put
tea bags in his pocket, he's hardly an outsider populist. Peter Schiff, something of a buffoon in public interviews, is nonetheless the darling of the tea party vote and between they and the Ron Paul supporters, as well as some wall Street money, Schiff will make things entertaining.
The only poll out so far is PPP, via Tom Jensen:
Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It's no surprise that he's liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn't take a lot of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive numbers among GOP voters these days.
Chris Dodd is a good man and did the right thing to step down. This goes from endangered incumbent to a D retention, though the pros will wait a bit before saying so. Blumenthal is not a Bill Clinton-caliber campaigner (who is?), but he's seasoned and knows the ropes. And he will get WH support, which still matters in a state like CT, even among the independents who are CT's biggest political group.
And it may marginally help freshman Jim Himes in CT-04 to have a D draw on the ballot to help him keep his newly won seat (that's Chris Shays' old territory, including a lot of Wall Street commuters, and CT's toughest House re-elect.)