Forecast Friday.
NY Times:
Even as voters rage and candidates put up ads against government bailouts, the reviled mother of them all — the $700 billion lifeline to banks, insurance and auto companies — will expire after Sunday at a fraction of that cost, and could conceivably earn taxpayers a profit.
Tom Jensen:
The voters who hate everything and everyone are a key part of the electorate this year- and their support of the GOP is a big part of why the party's headed for a big victory.
David C. Wilson:
After last week's CNN poll highlighting President Obama's"all-time" lowest job approvalthe public was bombarded with stories and headlines about how poorly the president was performing.
Since then, many pollshave shown the President's approval rating as anywhere from 3% to 6% points higher; all in less than a week. This shows why it's dangerous to position poll numbers as leading indicators of something. Indeed, they are snapshots of the past.
In an article on Pollster.com and HuffingtonPost.com, I tried to put some context to the President's ratings, suggesting that while his numbers are down, he still rates better than most others; especially Republicans.
Stuart Rothenberg:
Tea party activists did indeed do Democrats a huge favor in selecting Christine O'Donnell (R) to oppose New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D) in the fall.
Yes, Coons is an unabashed liberal, and he almost certainly would have fallen to Rep. Michael N. Castle (R) in an election cycle when voters are dissatisfied with Democratic governance and focused on issues such as spending and big government. But most voters don't care about ideology, and O'Donnell's worldview and agenda simply do not fit Delaware.
Smart Republicans know they will win if the 2010 elections are about Democrats, not about the Republican candidate's background or ideology. Tea party activists apparently don't get that, even though it isn't a complicated idea.
Bottom line is in a race by race count, Dems can still lose the Senate, but that doesn't mean they will.
Robert Shrum:
Elsewhere, incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray has strengthened her position in Washington State. And across the country, the Tea Party is the gift that keeps on giving—from Nevada to Delaware, where the unelectable Republican Senate nominee Christine O’Donnell has become a national punch line. The tea-imbibing Republicans are a twofer for Democrats: They scare mainstream voters and motivate the Democratic base too. Thus in Pennsylvania, the ultra-conservative Pat Toomey, riding the currents of economic discontent, has suddenly hit troubled waters as people learn that his idea of reform is to privatize Social Security and "abolish corporate taxes altogether." Discouraged blue-collar Democrats now have something to vote against other than the President’s failure to turn things around fast enough. Toomey’s margin over his Democratic opponent Joe Sestak is shrinking—first down to five points in a late September Suffolk University poll, and subsequently to three points in the latest Susquehanna numbers. A race that was written off is winnable.
Charlie Cook:
My view is that most academic polling, as well as the polling sponsored by local television stations and newspapers, is dime-store junk.
The far more sophisticated polling is done by top-notch professional polling firms for campaigns, parties and major business and labor organizations. These polls are considerably more expensive and the methodology is more rigorous.
Most of these surveys are not made public, but insiders can be made aware of them. While even the most experienced and contentious political pollsters have more challenges than a generation ago, their work is still far superior and reliable.
Charlie's also been known to say that "to some, polls have become a commodity, they are all equal, which is hardly the case". He told us so at Netroots Nation a year ago, in fact, and the presentation is still relevant.
More Charlie Cook with the title Are Democrats Waking Up?, same theme about polling:
As the election gets closer, more of the established polling operations will use likely voter screens, despite the greater cost. The problem is that every pollster has a different philosophy and methodology for determining a likely voter. This is where art gets added to science, and thus where political and very experienced questioners have a substantial advantage over some of the more recent arrivals in the world of surveys.
Ah, that likely voter. That's been my question, too.
Nate Silver:
Connecticut is a state that I have written about extensively. Suffice it to say that I think other observers have overlooked some important pieces of information — like the fact that there are very few undecided voters, and that both polling firms that have been active in the state, Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac, have tended to show numbers that are relatively favorable to Republicans. These details might suggest that the race is not quite as close as it appears. Still, this is another case where I would place a bet on the G.O.P. side of the line our model is suggesting (it still has the Republican, Linda McMahon, at under 10 percent to win.)
I am not one of those "other observers". ;-P