Arizona:
This state is looking very good for John Kerry. Undecideds will begin to break apart starting today and will most likely benifit the front runner John Kerry and John Edwards, who like Bill Clinton in 1992 has a large amount of last minute supporters swing his way in the last three days before voting. The bad news for John Edwards is that Wesley Clark is moving up fast in the zogby tracking polls in this state, and ARG shows both Clark and Edwards with similar favorable and unfavorable marks. Clark on the other hand also has bad news because while he is rising in the polls John Kerry has yet to loose his low 30's polling numbers, and undecideds will break to the front runner in at least a 1/3 ratio.
Bottom Line:
Good News for... Kerry
Bad News for... Clark who will be stuck in 2nd
Big Question for... Dean who will benifit from a third place showing with no major effort, and bad with a forth place showing. If John Edwards gets a solid third place and does well elsewere its a good night. Forth in Arizona for Edwards will hurt his chances in being able to frame this as a two way race.
Missouri:
The polls look accurate so there is not much to say here. Expect Edwards and Dean to climb a bit over the next couple of days, but I don't see any shifts in who finishes were changing. The only major issue here for Kerry is how many delegates he gets.
Bottom Line:
Good News for... Kerry, Edwards
Bad News for... Clark
Big Question for... Dean who looks like he might be able to get something out of Missouri after all. We'll have to wait and see.
Oklahoma:
A three way (YES THREE WAY) race between Kerry, Clark, and Edwards. The undecided numbers between Zogby and ARG are off and I expect we'll see Edwards pick up a lot of that group over the next couple of days. Can Edwards make up the difference? Who is actually going to win? Will Kerry pick up enough undecided voters, and will Deans attacks launch Clark or Edwards to victory?
Bottom Line:
Bad News for... Dean. The last thing Dean needs is for Edwards to have a bad night and Clark to have a good one. If this becomes a Clark and Kerry battle I think Dean could have some trouble keeping some of his base who just might support Clark to stop John Kerry. All a Big Question mark on that though.
Big Question for... Kerry, Clark, and John Edwards. the winner looks great, the other two get no great boost. Clark has to win, and Kerry has to stop Clark. Kerry could end up being a big looser here if he comes in third. Lets see what happens.
South Carolina:
I'm going to be somewhat bold here and say that Edwards has this race in the bag. I expect undecided voters to break for him and I think the big story here will be how much Kerry looses by. the poll are off a bit in this state, and Kerry needs to keep this close. A big win for Edwards here, a couple good showings in the other states, and a Clark loss in Oklahoma could help Edwards set the tone for a two man race. I doubt he'll be too successful in making a two man race, mostly because I think Dean supporters will stick it out a little longer, however make no doubt about it, South Carolina will be huge.
Bottom Line:
Good News for... Edwards
Bad News for... Clark and Kerry.
Big Question for... Dean. Dean has to hope that this race does not become a Kerry vs (Insert anyone but Dean here) race before he has a say in later primaries.
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