Here are the numbers from the Hill's poll of selected open seats. I think it's actually a mixed bag with at least one pickup looking sure:
Link
Tennessee 8
D: Roy Herron, 37%
R: Stephen Fincher, 47%
Washington 3
D: Denny Heck, 40%
R: Jaime Herrera, 42%
Arkansas 1
D: Chad Causey, 34%
R: Rick Crawford, 46%
Wisconsin 5
D: Julie Lassa, 35%
R: Sean Duffy, 44%
Illinois 10
D: Dan Seals, 49%
R: Robert Dold, 37%
Hawaii 1
D: Colleen Hanabusa, 41%
R: Charles Djou, 45%
Pennsylvania 7
D: Bryan Lentz, 39%
R: Patrick Meehan, 40%
New Hampshire 2
D: Ann Kuster, 42%
R: Charlie Bass, 45%
Michigan 1
D: Gary McDowell, 39%
R: Dan Benishek, 42%
West Virginia 1
D: Mike Oliverio, 42%
R: David McKinley, 39%
HI-01 remains a tossup (does the 'incumbent rule' mean that Djou is dooooomed?) WV-01 is interesting - that many undecideds seems a bit odd. Wonder if McKinley is running 'rubber stamp' ads? Bass should be doing better in NH-02, that one will go down to the wire. WA-02 and PN-07 are not that bad, either. The rest, well, yes, they suck.