This is an update to my October 4 Diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a comparison of the final ratings and the actual results from 2006 to 2008 to figure odds on a given race with a given score actually flipping. The methodology is explained in the last post. As I alluded to in the last post, the migration of these ratings continues to drift in the GOP direction, although at a somewhat slower pace. Since the last post, there have been changes by the NY Times, Sabato, Cook, and Rothenberg. Thus, as of today, the predictive model forecasts a net loss of 37.755 seats. This is still just 1 seat short of what the GOP would need for a majority.
This, however, is still subject to change over the next 18 days. Indeed, if the changes in the ratings that occurred between 9/10 and 10/15 (35 days) were to be replicated in the next 18 days, the projected loss number would grow to 42 (42.29). If the rate of change since my 9/22 projection were to be replicated, the number grows to 42.19. If the rate of change since the last diary on 10/4 continues, the number is 41.96. In other words, under my methodology, I'm guessing that the final projection will be somewhere in the range of 38-41--a continuing too close to call question for control. I am fairly comfortable in predicting the number will be in the range of 30-50. This puts me at odds with other forecasters who predict much higher losses based on macro polling numbers and some curious polling results.
But this is not a national ballot--it is a collection of individual races with actual candidates. And while I agree to a degree with Tom Jansen of PPP that flaws in GOP House candidates slide under the radar far easier than those in Senate candidates simply because of the difference in scrutiny, candidates do matter. The Dems outperformed their final generic polling average in 2008 by 3%--winning the national House vote by 10% when they had a Pollster average lead of 7% in the generic. Part or all of that may be the polling cell phone bias. In any event, I would expect that to hold true this year as well. Further, the Dems won 59% of the seats in taking 55% of the national vote. So, even losing the national vote by a couple points probably will be enough to keep control--and that is where we appear to be.
In any event, there are now 20 D seats and 2 R seats rated leaning to likely takeover. Those seats are likely goners given past performance. My model gives the GOP a net gain of 17.3 in these seats.
The next cut is the races rated as "tossups"--currently 33 D seats and 2 R seats. My model predicts a gain of 14.845 for the GOP in these seats.
The third tier are competitive near-tossups, but with a lean toward the incumbent party. There are 8 D and 1 R seats in this category, projecting to a further pickup of 2.975 for the GOP.
Fourth, there are 15 D and 3 R seats that are competitive but have a distinct lean to the incumbent party. Of these, my model predicts a net of 2.035 to the GOP.
Finally, there are 40 D seats and 10 R seats that are longshot possibilities. My model predicts a GOP gain of 0.6 seats from this group. The five together add to +37.755.
Here are the seats (with candidate financial disclosures through Q2):
Dem Seats
Tier 1: Lean or Likely Takeover
1. AR-02 (Overall Rank: 1). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 380. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: J.Elliott (Raised: $490K; CoH: $106K). R: T.Griffin (Raised: $955K; CoH: $316K).
2. TN-06 (Overall Rank: 2). PVI: R+11. Total Vulnerability Score: 375. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: B.Carter (Raised: $119K; CoH: $100K). R: D.Black (Raised: $836K; CoH: $197K).
3. LA-03 (Overall Rank: 3). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 375. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: R.Sangisetty (Raised: $611K; CoH: $248K). R: H.Downer (Raised: $604K; CoH: $63K).
4. NY-29 (Overall Rank: 4). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 375. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: M.Zeller (Raised: $232K; CoH: $50K). R: T.Reed (Raised: $809K; CoH: $361K).
5. IN-08 (Overall Rank: 6). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 330. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: T.Van Haaften (Raised: $473K; CoH: $360K). R: L.Bucshon (Raised: $493K; CoH: $207K).
6. KS-03 (Overall Rank: 7). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 330. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Moore (Raised: $362K; CoH: $237K). R: K.Yoder (Raised: $840K; CoH: $510K).
7. TX-17 (Overall Rank: 9). PVI: R+18. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: C.Edwards* (Raised: $2619K; CoH: $2145K). R: B.Flores (Raised: $1616K; CoH: $415K).
8. CO-04 (Overall Rank: 10). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: B.Markey* (Raised: $2259K; CoH: $1508K). R: C.Gardner (Raised: $1308K; CoH: $735K).
9. FL-24 (Overall Rank: 11). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Kosmas* (Raised: $1844K; CoH: $1284K). R: S.Adams (Raised: $392K; CoH: $115K).
10. OH-15 (Overall Rank: 12). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: M.Kilroy* (Raised: $1667K; CoH: $934K). R: S.Stivers (Raised: $1517K; CoH: $1243K).
11. TN-08 (Overall Rank: 13). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 300. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: R.Herron (Raised: $1563K; CoH: $1186K). R: S.Fincher (Raised: $1518K; CoH: $421K).
12. OH-01 (Overall Rank: 14). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 300. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Driehaus* (Raised: $1410K; CoH: $973K). R: S.Chabot (Raised: $1265K; CoH: $1007K).
13. IL-11 (Overall Rank: 15). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 295. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: D.Halvorson* (Raised: $1973K; CoH: $1443K). R: A.Kinzinger (Raised: $1072K; CoH: $480K).
14. PA-03 (Overall Rank: 16). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 285. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: K.Dahlkemper* (Raised: $1520K; CoH: $1015K). R: M.Kelly (Raised: $547K; CoH: $104K).
15. MI-01 (Overall Rank: 17). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 278. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: G.McDowell (Raised: $147K; CoH: $132K). R: D.Benishek (Raised: $449K; CoH: $131K).
16. WA-03 (Overall Rank: 18). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 278. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: D.Heck (Raised: $1001K; CoH: $708K). R: J.Herrera (Raised: $411K; CoH: $114K).
17. VA-05 (Overall Rank: 19). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 278. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: T.Perriello* (Raised: $2301K; CoH: $1723K). R: R.Hurt (Raised: $771K; CoH: $216K).
18. VA-02 (Overall Rank: 20). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 278. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: G.Nye* (Raised: $1787K; CoH: $1270K). R: S.Rigell (Raised: $1654K; CoH: $227K).
19. MD-01 (Overall Rank: 21). PVI: R+12. Total Vulnerability Score: 265. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: F.Kratovil* (Raised: $1854K; CoH: $1346K). R: A.Harris (Raised: $1544K; CoH: $944K).
20. AZ-01 (Overall Rank: 22). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 265. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: A.Kirkpatrick* (Raised: $1427K; CoH: $870K). R: P.Gosar (Raised: $414K; CoH: $41K).
Tier 2: Tossups
21. AR-01 (Overall Rank: 23). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 255. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Causey (Raised: $754K; CoH: $91K). R: R.Crawford (Raised: $435K; CoH: $214K).
22. PA-07 (Overall Rank: 24). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 255. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Lentz (Raised: $1028K; CoH: $786K). R: P.Meehan (Raised: $1645K; CoH: $1124K).
23. NH-02 (Overall Rank: 25). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Kuster (Raised: $1381K; CoH: $450K). R: C.Bass (Raised: $538K; CoH: $312K).
24. NM-02 (Overall Rank: 26). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: H.Teague* (Raised: $1514K; CoH: $1169K). R: S.Pearce (Raised: $1502K; CoH: $1024K).
25. PA-11 (Overall Rank: 27). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: P.Kanjorski* (Raised: $1357K; CoH: $1058K). R: L.Barletta (Raised: $568K; CoH: $237K).
26. WI-07 (Overall Rank: 28). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Lassa (Raised: $548K; CoH: $403K). R: S.Duffy (Raised: $1205K; CoH: $694K).
27. MS-01 (Overall Rank: 29). PVI: R+13. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: T.Childers* (Raised: $1321K; CoH: $903K). R: A.Nunnelee (Raised: $899K; CoH: $233K).
28. ND-AL (Overall Rank: 30). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: E.Pomeroy* (Raised: $2210K; CoH: $1669K). R: R.Berg (Raised: $1045K; CoH: $752K).
29. WI-08 (Overall Rank: 31). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: S.Kagen* (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $777K). R: R.Ribble (Raised: $507K; CoH: $71K).
30. FL-08 (Overall Rank: 32). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Grayson* (Raised: $3719K; CoH: $1369K). R: D.Webster (Raised: $326K; CoH: $105K).
31. NH-01 (Overall Rank: 33). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Shea-Porter* (Raised: $997K; CoH: $529K). R: F.Guinta (Raised: $911K; CoH: $158K).
32. FL-02 (Overall Rank: 35). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Boyd* (Raised: $1782K; CoH: $762K). R: W.Southerland (Raised: $401K; CoH: $85K).
33. NV-03 (Overall Rank: 36). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Titus* (Raised: $1672K; CoH: $1205K). R: J.Heck (Raised: $604K; CoH: $362K).
34. WV-01 (Overall Rank: 37). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Oliverio (Raised: $832K; CoH: $303K). R: D.McKinley (Raised: $967K; CoH: $307K).
35. SD-AL (Overall Rank: 39). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: S.Herseth Sandlin* (Raised: $1118K; CoH: $707K). R: K.Noem (Raised: $577K; CoH: $292K).
36. SC-05 (Overall Rank: 40). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Spratt* (Raised: $1066K; CoH: $1201K). R: M.Mulvaney (Raised: $617K; CoH: $471K).
37. IN-09 (Overall Rank: 41). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Hill* (Raised: $1427K; CoH: $1109K). R: T.Young (Raised: $845K; CoH: $260K).
38. OH-16 (Overall Rank: 42). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Boccieri* (Raised: $1373K; CoH: $1061K). R: J.Renacci (Raised: $1384K; CoH: $663K).
39. AZ-05 (Overall Rank: 43). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: H.Mitchell* (Raised: $1519K; CoH: $836K). R: D.Schweikert (Raised: $668K; CoH: $226K).
40. MI-07 (Overall Rank: 44). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Schauer* (Raised: $2244K; CoH: $1653K). R: T.Walberg (Raised: $742K; CoH: $244K).
41. NY-24 (Overall Rank: 45). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Arcuri* (Raised: $1277K; CoH: $601K). R: R.Hanna (Raised: $779K; CoH: $500K).
42. PA-10 (Overall Rank: 46). PVI: R+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Carney* (Raised: $1169K; CoH: $793K). R: T.Marino (Raised: $233K; CoH: $11K).
43. GA-08 (Overall Rank: 47). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Marshall* (Raised: $824K; CoH: $985K). R: A.Scott (Raised: $251K; CoH: $213K).
44. IL-14 (Overall Rank: 48). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Foster* (Raised: $2273K; CoH: $1549K). R: R.Hultgren (Raised: $778K; CoH: $245K).
45. NY-19 (Overall Rank: 49). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Hall* (Raised: $1257K; CoH: $504K). R: N.Hayworth (Raised: $1369K; CoH: $563K).
46. AL-02 (Overall Rank: 50). PVI: R+16. Total Vulnerability Score: 205. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Bright* (Raised: $1102K; CoH: $734K). R: M.Roby (Raised: $569K; CoH: $121K).
47. NC-08 (Overall Rank: 51). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 205. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: L.Kissell* (Raised: $704K; CoH: $293K). R: H.Johnson (Raised: $482K; CoH: $82K).
48. NY-23 (Overall Rank: 52). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 205. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Owens* (Raised: $2233K; CoH: $600K). R: M.Doheny (Raised: $1860K; CoH: $471K).
49. PA-08 (Overall Rank: 53). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 205. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: P.Murphy* (Raised: $2663K; CoH: $1775K). R: M.Fitzpatrick (Raised: $926K; CoH: $664K).
50. OH-18 (Overall Rank: 54). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 197. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: Z.Space* (Raised: $1945K; CoH: $1268K). R: B.Gibbs (Raised: $570K; CoH: $210K).
51. CO-03 (Overall Rank: 55). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 197. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Salazar* (Raised: $1225K; CoH: $1258K). R: S.Tipton (Raised: $380K; CoH: $167K).
52. KY-06 (Overall Rank: 56). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 190. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Chandler* (Raised: $906K; CoH: $1749K). R: A.Barr (Raised: $812K; CoH: $361K).
53. IA-03 (Overall Rank: 57). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 190. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: L.Boswell* (Raised: $993K; CoH: $734K). R: B.Zaun (Raised: $240K; CoH: $100K).
54. AZ-08 (Overall Rank: 58). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 185. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: G.Giffords* (Raised: $2364K; CoH: $1923K). R: J.Kelly (Raised: $568K; CoH: $79K).
Tier 3: Lean D, Tilt Tossup
55. IL-17 (Overall Rank: 59). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 182. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold. D: P.Hare* (Raised: $844K; CoH: $856K). R: B.Schilling (Raised: $301K; CoH: $211K).
56. CA-11 (Overall Rank: 60). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 177. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold. D: J.McNerney* (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $1247K). R: D.Harmer (Raised: $1816K; CoH: $233K).
57. TX-23 (Overall Rank: 61). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 170. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: C.Rodriguez* (Raised: $1147K; CoH: $702K). R: F.Canseco (Raised: $1008K; CoH: $453K).
58. NJ-03 (Overall Rank: 62). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 170. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Adler* (Raised: $2456K; CoH: $1947K). R: J.Runyan (Raised: $654K; CoH: $472K).
59. GA-02 (Overall Rank: 63). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: S.Bishop* (Raised: $674K; CoH: $405K). R: M.Keown (Raised: $491K; CoH: $238K).
60. IN-02 (Overall Rank: 65). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 160. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Donnelly* (Raised: $1205K; CoH: $989K). R: J.Walorski (Raised: $565K; CoH: $303K).
61. ID-01 (Overall Rank: 66). PVI: R+18. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: W.Minnick* (Raised: $1813K; CoH: $1139K). R: R.Labrador (Raised: $286K; CoH: $69K).
Tier 4: Competitive Lean Hold
62. NY-20 (Overall Rank: 67). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 147. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: S.Murphy* (Raised: $4407K; CoH: $1453K). R: C.Gibson (Raised: $854K; CoH: $327K).
63. MA-10 (Overall Rank: 69). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Keating (Raised: $656K; CoH: $364K). R: J.Perry (Raised: $517K; CoH: $128K).
64. MO-04 (Overall Rank: 70). PVI: R+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: I.Skelton* (Raised: $1941K; CoH: $1370K). R: V.Hartzler (Raised: $498K; CoH: $242K).
65. VA-09 (Overall Rank: 71). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: R.Boucher* (Raised: $1537K; CoH: $2010K). R: M.Griffith (Raised: $403K; CoH: $297K).
66. PA-12 (Overall Rank: 72). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: M.Critz* (Raised: $1490K; CoH: $166K). R: T.Burns (Raised: $1827K; CoH: $163K).
67. FL-22 (Overall Rank: 73). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: R.Klein* (Raised: $2514K; CoH: $2841K). R: A.West (Raised: $4009K; CoH: $2249K).
68. OR-05 (Overall Rank: 74). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: K.Schrader* (Raised: $1219K; CoH: $915K). R: S.Bruun (Raised: $471K; CoH: $178K).
69. NM-01 (Overall Rank: 75). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: M.Heinrich* (Raised: $1806K; CoH: $1302K). R: J.Barela (Raised: $770K; CoH: $537K).
70. NY-01 (Overall Rank: 76). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 132. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: T.Bishop* (Raised: $1886K; CoH: $1539K). R: R.Altschuler (Raised: $2890K; CoH: $1301K).
71. TN-04 (Overall Rank: 77). PVI: R+12. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: L.Davis* (Raised: $789K; CoH: $472K). R: S.DesJarlais (Raised: $322K; CoH: $24K).
72. WA-02 (Overall Rank: 79). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: R.Larsen* (Raised: $1116K; CoH: $864K). R: J.Koster (Raised: $424K; CoH: $127K).
73. OH-13 (Overall Rank: 80). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: B.Sutton* (Raised: $930K; CoH: $593K). R: T.Ganley (Raised: $6669K; CoH: $2691K).
74. MI-09 (Overall Rank: 82). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: G.Peters* (Raised: $2331K; CoH: $1928K). R: A.Raczkowski (Raised: $841K; CoH: $215K).
75. VA-11 (Overall Rank: 83). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: G.Connolly* (Raised: $1740K; CoH: $1274K). R: K.Fimian (Raised: $1175K; CoH: $272K).
76. CA-47 (Overall Rank: 84). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: Lo.Sanchez* (Raised: $1313K; CoH: $1268K). R: V.Tran (Raised: $729K; CoH: $288K).
Tier 5: Longshots
77. NC-07 (Overall Rank: 85). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.McIntyre* (Raised: $722K; CoH: $842K). R: I.Pantano (Raised: $321K; CoH: $99K).
78. NY-13 (Overall Rank: 86). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.McMahon* (Raised: $2113K; CoH: $1097K). R: M.Grimm (Raised: $796K; CoH: $385K).
79. MN-01 (Overall Rank: 87). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: T.Walz* (Raised: $1457K; CoH: $832K). R: R.Demmer (Raised: $419K; CoH: $222K).
80. NY-25 (Overall Rank: 88). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Maffei* (Raised: $2273K; CoH: $1160K). R: A.Buerkle (Raised: $340K; CoH: $182K).
81. CT-05 (Overall Rank: 89). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: C.Murphy* (Raised: $2089K; CoH: $1491K). R: S.Caliguri (Raised: $593K; CoH: $80K).
82. WI-03 (Overall Rank: 90). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: R.Kind* (Raised: $1216K; CoH: $1273K). R: D.Kapanke (Raised: $685K; CoH: $322K).
83. CT-04 (Overall Rank: 91). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Himes* (Raised: $2643K; CoH: $1887K). R: D.Debicella (Raised: $820K; CoH: $493K).
84. NC-11 (Overall Rank: 92). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: H.Shuler* (Raised: $880K; CoH: $1429K). R: J.Miller (Raised: $276K; CoH: $65K).
85. PA-04 (Overall Rank: 93). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Altmire* (Raised: $1931K; CoH: $1466K). R: K.Rothfus (Raised: $563K; CoH: $202K).
86. PA-17 (Overall Rank: 94). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: T.Holden* (Raised: $939K; CoH: $884K). R: D.Argall (Raised: $205K; CoH: $29K).
87. WV-03 (Overall Rank: 95). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: N.Rahall* (Raised: $809K; CoH: $1588K). R: E.Maynard (Raised: $186K; CoH: $115K).
88. OH-06 (Overall Rank: 97). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: C.Wilson* (Raised: $594K; CoH: $608K). R: B.Johnson (Raised: $305K; CoH: $148K).
89. KY-03 (Overall Rank: 98). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Yarmuth* (Raised: $997K; CoH: $600K). R: T.Lally (Raised: $380K; CoH: $269K).
90. MS-04 (Overall Rank: 101). PVI: R+19. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: G.Taylor* (Raised: $456K; CoH: $347K). R: S.Palazzo (Raised: $223K; CoH: $26K).
91. NC-02 (Overall Rank: 102). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: B.Etheridge* (Raised: $909K; CoH: $1208K). R: R.Ellmers (Raised: $188K; CoH: $46K).
92. CO-07 (Overall Rank: 103). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: E.Perlmutter* (Raised: $1539K; CoH: $1283K). R: R.Frazier (Raised: $876K; CoH: $252K).
93. CA-20 (Overall Rank: 105). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Costa* (Raised: $854K; CoH: $337K). R: J.Vidak (Raised: $231K; CoH: $48K).
94. RI-01 (Overall Rank: 106). PVI: D+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Ciccilline (Raised: $1356K; CoH: $446K). R: J.Loughlin (Raised: $470K; CoH: $67K).
95. IL-08 (Overall Rank: 110). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.Bean* (Raised: $1628K; CoH: $1171K). R: J.Walsh (Raised: $317K; CoH: $30K).
96. CA-18 (Overall Rank: 111). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Cardoza* (Raised: $807K; CoH: $575K). R: M.Berryhill (Raised: $790K; CoH: $131K).
97. IA-02 (Overall Rank: 112). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Loebsack* (Raised: $643K; CoH: $524K). R: M.Miller-Meeks (Raised: $318K; CoH: $104K).
98. AZ-07 (Overall Rank: 113). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: R.Grijalva* (Raised: $K; CoH: $K). R: R.McClung (Raised: $K; CoH: $K).
99. AR-04 (Overall Rank: 114). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: M.Ross* (Raised: $1561K; CoH: $1148K). R: B.Rankin (Raised: $147K; CoH: $69K).
100. GA-12 (Overall Rank: 115). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Barrow* (Raised: $1345K; CoH: $655K). R: R.McKinney (Raised: $135K; CoH: $77K).
101. IA-01 (Overall Rank: 116). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Braley* (Raised: $1067K; CoH: $632K). R: B.Lange (Raised: $168K; CoH: $110K).
102. MN-08 (Overall Rank: 118). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Oberstar* (Raised: $1282K; CoH: $1126K). R: C.Cravaack (Raised: $107K; CoH: $42K).
103. NJ-12 (Overall Rank: 119). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: R.Holt* (Raised: $1193K; CoH: $1061K). R: S.Sipprelle (Raised: $830K; CoH: $490K).
104. OR-01 (Overall Rank: 120). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: D.Wu* (Raised: $973K; CoH: $627K). R: R.Cornilles (Raised: $607K; CoH: $256K).
105. MI-15 (Overall Rank: 121). PVI: . Total Vulnerability Score: 20. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Dingell* (Raised: $K; CoH: $K). R: (Raised: $K; CoH: $K).
106. UT-02 (Overall Rank: 123). PVI: R+15. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Matheson* (Raised: $1358K; CoH: $1041K). R: M.Philpot (Raised: $112K; CoH: $58K).
107. TX-27 (Overall Rank: 124). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: S.Ortiz* (Raised: $K; CoH: $K). R: B.Farenthold (Raised: $K; CoH: $K).
108. ME-02 (Overall Rank: 125). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: M.Michaud* (Raised: $761K; CoH: $668K). R: J.Levesque (Raised: $243K; CoH: $57K).
109. NY-22 (Overall Rank: 127). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: M.Hinchey* (Raised: $586K; CoH: $267K). R: G.Phillips (Raised: $248K; CoH: $35K).
110. WA-09 (Overall Rank: 128). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: A.Smith* (Raised: $603K; CoH: $444K). R: D.Muri (Raised: $94K; CoH: $1K).
111. ME-01 (Overall Rank: 129). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: C.Pingree* (Raised: $670K; CoH: $361K). R: D.Scontras (Raised: $152K; CoH: $67K).
112. NY-04 (Overall Rank: 130). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: C.McCarthy* (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $771K). R: F.Becker (Raised: $88K; CoH: $25K).
113. MO-03 (Overall Rank: 131). PVI: D+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: R.Carnahan* (Raised: $1218K; CoH: $666K). R: E.Martin (Raised: $835K; CoH: $582K).
114. MA-05 (Overall Rank: 132). PVI: D+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: N.Tsongas* (Raised: $1370K; CoH: $517K). R: J.Golnik (Raised: $226K; CoH: $78K).
115. NM-03 (Overall Rank: 133). PVI: D+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Lujan* (Raised: $K; CoH: $K). R: T.Mullins (Raised: $K; CoH: $K).
116. MA-04 (Overall Rank: 134). PVI: D+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Frank* (Raised: $K; CoH: $K). R: S.Bielat (Raised: $K; CoH: $K).
GOP Seats
Tier 1: Lean/Likely Takeover
1. LA-02 (Overall Rank: 5). PVI: D+25. Total Vulnerability Score: 330. Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover. D: C.Richmond (Raised: $507K; CoH: $166K). R: J.Cao* (Raised: $1462K; CoH: $301K).
2. DE-AL (Overall Rank: 8). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover. D: J.Carney (Raised: $1502K; CoH: $904K). R: G.Urquhart (Raised: $708K; CoH: $194K).
Tier 2: Tossups
3. HI-01 (Overall Rank: 34). PVI: D+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Hanabusa (Raised: $1704K; CoH: $410K). R: C.Djou* (Raised: $1683K; CoH: $428K).
4. IL-10 (Overall Rank: 38). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Seals (Raised: $1694K; CoH: $792K). R: R.Dold (Raised: $1499K; CoH: $748K).
Tier 3: Lean R Hold Tilt TossuP
5. CA-03 (Overall Rank: 64). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: A.Bera (Raised: $1630K; CoH: $1140K). R: D.Lungren* (Raised: $1220K; CoH: $802K).
Tier 4: Competitive Lean Hold
6. FL-25 (Overall Rank: 68). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: J.Garcia (Raised: $871K; CoH: $568K). R: D.Rivera (Raised: $1330K; CoH: $1156K).
7. PA-15 (Overall Rank: 78). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: J.Callahan (Raised: $1407K; CoH: $989K). R: C.Dent* (Raised: $1743K; CoH: $1043K).
8. WA-08 (Overall Rank: 81). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely R Hold. D: S.Del Bene (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $916K). R: D.Reichert* (Raised: $1818K; CoH: $1006K).
Tier 5: Longshots
9. PA-06 (Overall Rank: 96). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: M.Trivedi (Raised: $836K; CoH: $329K). R: J.Gerlach* (Raised: $1373K; CoH: $541K).
10. NE-02 (Overall Rank: 99). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: T.White (Raised: $675K; CoH: $532K). R: L.Terry* (Raised: $1305K; CoH: $787K).
11. FL-12 (Overall Rank: 100). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 67. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: L.Edwards (Raised: $346K; CoH: $103K). R: D.Ross (Raised: $811K; CoH: $403K).
12. MN-06 (Overall Rank: 104). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: T.Clark (Raised: $2412K; CoH: $798K). R: M.Bachmann* (Raised: $4585K; CoH: $2406K).
13. OH-12 (Overall Rank: 107). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: P.Brooks (Raised: $994K; CoH: $683K). R: P.Tiberi* (Raised: $2118K; CoH: $1902K).
14. CA-45 (Overall Rank: 108). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: S.Pougnet (Raised: $1268K; CoH: $878K). R: M.Bono-Mack* (Raised: $1732K; CoH: $1242K).
15. AZ-03 (Overall Rank: 109). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: J.Hulburd (Raised: $778K; CoH: $428K). R: B.Quayle (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $429K).
16. AL-05 (Overall Rank: 117). PVI: R+11. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: S.Raby (Raised: $458K; CoH: $111K). R: M.Brooks (Raised: $447K; CoH: $259K).
17. MI-03 (Overall Rank: 122). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: P.Miles (Raised: $318K; CoH: $227K). R: J.Amash (Raised: $379K; CoH: $112K).
18. CA-44 (Overall Rank: 126). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Hedrick (Raised: $368K; CoH: $149K). R: K.Calvert* (Raised: $1369K; CoH: $681K).