Summary:
MD has 8 reps: 1 R, 7 D
MA has 10 reps: all D
MI has 15 reps: 8 D, 7 R
Possibly vulnerable:
MD-01 (D)
MA-10 (D) (but probably not)
MI-01 (D)
MI-02 (R) (but probably not)
MI-03 (R)
MI-07 (D)
MI-09 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
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District: MD-01
Location Eastern MD, bordering DE; plus most of the shore of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Frank Kratovil (D)
VoteView 242
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-48 over Andy Harris (less than 3,000 voes)
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Andy Harris
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Kratovil has $1.3 million COH, Harris an impressive $940 K. Kratovil seems to fit here, but Harris almost won in a year that was bound to be better for Democrats.
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Tossup
District: MD-02
Location The western shore of the Chesapeake, plus odd bits farther west map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
VoteView 177
First elected 2002
2008 margin 72-25 over Richard Matthews
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents Marcelo Cardarelli
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Ruppersberger has $1 miilion COH, Cardarelli has little.
District: MD-03
Location An odd shaped district, including Annapolis map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative John Sarbanes
VoteView 102.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Thomas Harris
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Jim Wilhelm.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Sarbanes has $600K COH, Wilhelm has little.
District: MD-04
Location Another odd shaped district, including area to the north and east of DC map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Donna Edwards (D)
VoteView 19
First elected 2008
2008 margin 86-13 over Peter James
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 85-14
Bush margin 2004 78-21
Current opponents Robert Broadus
Demographics 37th fewest Whites, 13th most Blacks
Assessment Safe. Edwards has $170K COH, Broadus has little.
District: MD-05
Location Mostly this is the southern part of MD to the west of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Steny Hoyer (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1981
2008 margin 74-24 over Collins Bailey
2006 margin 83-16 (over a Green party candidate)
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 42-57
Current opponents Charles Lollar
Demographics 28th highest median income; 28th fewest in poverty
Assessment Safe. Hoyer has nearly $2 million CHO, Lollar about $90K. It would be nice to have someone more progressive in this solidly Democratic seat, but not likely until Hoyer retires.
District: MD-06
Location The westernmost part of MD, a thin wedge between PA, WV, and VA map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Roscoe Bartlett (R)
VoteView 328
First elected 1992
2008 margin 58-39 over Jennifer Daugherty
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 67-29
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Andrew Duck
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Bartlett has $300K COH, Duck has little. Bartlett is 83 years old, but Duck lost to Bartlett in 2006, and in a primary in 2008. Safe for Republicans.
District: MD-07
Location Baltimore and points west map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Elijah Cummings
VoteView 77
First elected 1996
2008 margin 80-19 over Michael Hargadon
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 26-73
Current opponents Frank Mirabile Jr
Demographics 31st most Blacks
Assessment Safe. Cummings has over $750K COH, Mirabilie has little.
District: MD-08
Location North and west of DC, bordering VA map
Cook PVI D + 21
Representative Chris van Hollen (D)
VoteView 105.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 75-22 over Steve Hudson
2006 margin 77-22
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Michael Lee Phillips
Demographics 17th highest median income
Assessment Safe. van Hollen has an amazing $3 million COH, Hudson has little.
District: MA-01
Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west. Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative John Olver
VoteView 11.5
First elected 1991
2008 margin 73-27 over Nate Bech
2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 35-63
Current opponents William Gunn
Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. Olver has $380K COH. Gunn has little.
District: MA-02
Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Richard Neal (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents Tom Wesley
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Neal has almost $3 million COH, Wesley has little.
District: MA-03
Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim McGovern (D)
VoteView 35.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents Martin Lamb
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. McGovern has almost $1 million COH, Lamb has little.
District: MA-04
Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Barney Frank (D)
VoteView 27
First elected 1980
2008 margin 68-25 over Earl Sholley
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 33-65
Current opponents Sean Bielat
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook
Assessment Safe. Frank has $1 million COH, Sholley has little.
District: MA-05
Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Niki Tsongas (D)
VoteView 93
First elected 2007
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents Jon Golnik
Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)
Assessment Safe. Tsongas has $500K COH, Golnik about $80K.
District: MA-06
Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester. map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative John Tierney (D)
VoteView 32.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 70-30 over Richard Baker
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 59-41
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Bill Hudak Jr
Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Tierney has $1.5 million COH, Hudak about $90K.
District: MA-07
Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Edward Markey (D)
VoteView 30.5
First elected 1976
2008 margin 76-24 over John Cunningham
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 74-22
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Current opponents Gerry Dembrowski
Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Markey has over $3.4 million COH. Dembrowski has little.
District: MA-08
Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Michael Capuano (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 30.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 86-14
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment No opponent.
District: MA-09
Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Stephen Lynch (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2001
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 61-39
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Current opponents Vern Harrison
Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Lynch has $1 million COH, no info on Harrison.
District: MA-10
Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bill Delahunt (D) Retiring
VoteView 39.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 64-29
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents Jeff Perry (R), Bill Keating (D)
Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Keating has over $350K, Perry has $130K
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D. This is Democratic territory, and Keating is not taking things for granted (unlike SOME candidates in Massachusetts recent history!)
District: MI-01
Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part map.
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Bart Stupak (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 52-45
Current opponents Gary McDowell (D) Dan Benishek (R)
Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment McDowell and Benishek each have almost exactly $130K COH. A recent poll put Benishek up 42-39
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: For want of information: Tossup
District: MI-02
Cook PVI R + 7
Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan map.
Representative Pete Hoekstra (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Nicolette McClure (D) Bill Huizenga (R)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a fairly Republican district, but it's open. Huizenga has about $70K COH, McClure has little.
My rating: Likely R
District: MI-03
Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Vernon Ehlers (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Justin Amash (R) Pat Miles (D)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Obama ran even here. Now that Ehlers is out .... who knows? Amash has $111K COH, but lots of debt, Miles has about double the COH, but also lots of debt.
District: MI-04
Location Central MI map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Dave Camp (R)
VoteView 327
First elected 1996
2008 margin 62-36 over Andrew Concannon
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 64-38
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Jerry Campbell
Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)
Assessment Long shot. Camp has $1.3 million COH, no info on Campbell.
District: MI-05
Location Flint and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Dale Kildee (D)
VoteView 149
First elected 1976
2008 margin 70-27 over Matt Sawicki
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents John Kupiec
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Kildee has over $700K COH, Kupiec has little.
District: MI-06
Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Frederick Upton (R)
VoteView 283
First elected 1986
2008 margin 59-39 over Don Cooney
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Don Cooney
Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)
Assessment Safe. Upton has $760K COH, Cooney has little.
District: MI-07
Location Central part of southern MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mark Schauer (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-46 over Tim Walberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-46
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Tim Walberg
Demographics 68th most rural (46%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Crisitunity ranks it the 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat. Schauer barely won in 2008, but that was his freshman year, and he ousted Walberg. Schauer has $1.6 million COH, Walberg about $2400K. A recent non-partisan poll had this tied at 44, A Democratic poll had Schauer up 47-44, and a slightly older D poll said much the same, while a Republican poll has Walberg ahead 42-38
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: MI-08
Location Lansing and surrounding area map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mike Rogers (R)
VoteView 335
First elected 2000
2008 margin 56-40 over Robert Alexander
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin 61-37
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Lance Enderle
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Another increasingly D district, but probably not this year. Rogers has $1 million COH, no info on Enderle
District: MI-09
Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Gary Peters (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-43 over Joe Knollenberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Rocky Raczkowski
Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)
Assessment Peters ousted Knollenberg, so he should be OK, but it's not totally safe. Peters has $1.9 million COH, Raczkowski has $200K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: MI-10
Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Candice Miller (R)
VoteView 284
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-31 over Robert Dennison
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Henry Yanez
Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment Safe. Miller has $1.1 million COH, no info on Yanez
District: MI-11
Location Far western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)
VoteView 285
First elected 2002
2008 margin 51-45 over Joseph Larkin
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 57-41
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Natalie Mosher
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)
Assessment McCotter may be beatable; the district is moving to the Democrats, but probably not this year. McCotter has nearly $600K COH, Mosher has little.
District: MI-12
Location Northern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Sander Levin (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1982
2008 margin 72-24 over Bert Coppie
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents Don Volaric
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Levin has about $500K COH, Volaric has little.
District: MI-13
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 74-19 over Edward Gubicks
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 78-18
Obama margin 84-16
Bush margin 2004 19-81
Current opponents John Hauler
Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Kilpatrick has $280K COH, Hauler has little.
District: MI-14
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative John Conyers (D)
VoteView 25.5
First elected 1964
2008 margin 92-4 over minor party candidates
2006 margin 85-15
2004 margin 84-16
Obama margin 87-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Don Ukrainec
Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Conyers has $120K COH, Ukrainec has little.
District: MI-15
Location Southern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative John Dingell (D)
VoteView 115.5
First elected 1955 (longest serving House member)
2008 margin 71-25 over John Lynch
2006 margin 88% against minor parties
2004 margin 71-27
Obama margin 66-32
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents Rob Steele
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Dingell has $900K COH, Steele about $100K. A recent Republican poll had Steele ahead, 44-40