It has been a long time since Minnesota elected a Governor who had less than 55% of the electorate not vote for them. (Yep, you read that right.) Minnesota's strong penchant for third and fourth party candidates has led to a long string of Governors elected with 38-42% of the vote. Most of these winners were to the right of the candidates who won 55% or more of the vote. It may happen again.
The Star Tribune, the largest paper in the state, has endorsed Tom Horner for Gov. Tom is a former Republican, and is at first glance, not a bad guy (not a progressive, but arguably a true moderate Republican). He is running on the Independence Party ticket (same as Jesse Ventura). He is also only polling in the low to mid teens. Mark Dayton, the DFL (Minnesota's unique Dem title) candidate has enjoyed a modest lead in most polls with Tom Emmer, the whack job lunatic Republican candidate holding a solid 30-36% in polls--pretty much unchanged for weeks. That could be enough for him to win.
This is going to make a Dayton or Horner victory very tricky. 2-2.5% of Minnesota's votes go to other parties-- Green, Constitution, etc. If Horner takes votes from the Dayton column, which seems more likely given the rock solid base that has stood with Emmer even though moderates in the Republican party don't like him, we could see a repeat of Pawlenty 1 and 2 with a Governor who is far to the right of the electorate winning with a slim plurality.
The Star Tribune's endorsement makes this even more likely.
This is not good news. Emmer is as Tea Bag as Angle and Paul with whacky constitutional ideas. (He sponsored a bill that would have required a supermajority of the Minnesota legislature and the Governor to approve any Federal law before it could take effect in Minnesota.) This should be a safe race, but the moderate and left split keeps reinforcing a right wing victory.
Instant Run-off voting anyone?
StarTribune article