No reason to sugarcoat the "likely voter" (LV) numbers in the latest NBC/WSJ poll (full data here, .pdf):
A vigorous post-Labor Day Democratic offensive has failed to diminish the resurgent Republicans' lead among likely voters, leaving the GOP poised for major gains in congressional elections two weeks away, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
Among likely voters, Republicans hold a 50% to 43% edge, up from a three-percentage-point lead a month ago. And in the 92 House districts considered most competitive, the GOP's lead is 20 points...
Mr. McInturff (R ;pollster) said the Republican lead among likely voters, if it stood, probably would yield a pickup of 52 or 53 House seats, surpassing the net gain of 39 seats the GOP needs to claim control of the chamber.
But will it stand? If you accept that the LV models are correct, the Democrats will lose the House (but not by 60 or 70.)
Hang on though. If you think the LV models are not correct, you might want to look at this:
For Democratic candidates, the poll holds some glimmers of hope. Democratic campaigns in their home districts appear to be having an impact.
In August, 46% of respondents said their member of Congress's position on national issues was most important to their vote, compared with 41% who were swayed by their member's performance in the district—an ominous number when 60% believe the nation is on the wrong track. Now, 52% said performance in the district is most important.
Moreover, 52% said their representative is part of the solution to the problems facing the country, while 35% said their representative is part of the problem.
"The Democrats may be making a good pitch on performance in their districts," Mr. Hart said.
The LV models that these polls stake their reputation on will be up for a vote, starting now and through election day. According to the NBC/WSJ poll, 5% have already voted.
Has Dewey beaten Truman, or will Truman pull it out with GOP unforced errors and too many Christine O'Donnells and Carl Paladinos as candidates? We'll see how well the pollsters did (and what the people really think) in two short weeks.