The Taliban are
fleeing their strongholds in Zhari and Panjwaii in the face of a major NATO and Afghan offense. U.S. and Canadian troops are making up the majority of the NATO forces serving the operation in both districts which lay to the south and west of Kandahar City. The timing of this push is very similar to the offensive launched last year against the Mehsud/Pakistani Taliban by the Pakistani army in South Waziristan and is probably meant to coincide with the coming winter. Many of the Afghan Taliban fleeing Kandahar are likely to repeat exactly what happened in late-2001/2002; head straight for Pakistan. The difference is that NATO and the Afghan security forces are counting on being entrenched in these rural areas of the south for when the spring, summer, and fighting season return.
Afghanistan:
Afghan President Hamid Karzai leaves the door
open to allowing some more additional flexibility regarding his ban on most private security companies. The U.S. and U.N. have been pushing for an exemption to be allowed for work concerning some development projects.
A suicide-operation launched by militants failed to kill anyone other than themselves at a U.N. office in the western city of Herat.
I'm going to continue reading and analyzing ISAF press releases and media reports about the damage being done to the Taliban. After this time, I'm going to start saving all the links so it's actually sourced. With that said, the majority of incidents that lead to suspected-insurgent deaths and captures (almost entirely from counter-terrorist raids and firefights) took place in Kandahar, Helmand, and "Haqqani country" in the south-east of the counter.(Khost, Paktika, Paktia) According to my count over the last six days, which assumes that "several" is no more than two and that "more than ten" is no more than eleven, just over 200 suspected-insurgents were killed(139) or captured(64) including almost a dozen-and-a-half "low"(15) to "low-mid"(2) commanders.("low" covers leaders within a given district, while "low-mid" leaders are somewhere between "low" and provincial shadow-governors). Fourty-or-so militants surrendered in the northern province of Kunduz. What this tells me is that so far in October, the pace of NATO's operations has yet to decline from the pace set in the summer. About 25,000-30,000 is a common guesstimate on the size of the insurgency. The pace of operations is a reason cited by AfPak envoy Richard Holbrooke for why the Taliban and other insurgents are allegedly-open to peace talks. Recently, CT-operations have expanded into the north-west especially in the province of Badghis. So far in 2010, NATO has lost nearly 600 servicemembers.
Federally-Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan:
In the northern-most FATA agency of Bajaur, two more schools have been bombed by militants.
Pakistan claimed to have killed over a dozen militants during an air strike in the central-FATA agency of Orakzai. The Pakistani military has been trying to knock the Pakistani Taliban out of their second-home since March.
A pamphlet distributed by the Miramshah Shura has warned Pakistan that if they launch an operation into North Waziristan, they would in turn enter Afghanistan and reach out to Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The most powerful man in North Waziristan(of southern-FATA) is Siraj Haqqani, who currently runs the Haqqani Network in place of his ailing father. He's also in charge of the Miramshah Shura, one of the key regional commands of the Afghan insurgency. He's now thought to be hiding north in the central-FATA agency of Kurram. In fact, he's thought to be in hiding in the same area where NATO helicopters recently struck and killed several members of Pakistan's paramilitary Frontier Corps. The NATO aircraft were said to be pursuing Haqqani fighters who fled across the border. The Haqqani network is thought to be looking hard at Kurram while their sanctuaries in North Waziristan are under the watchful eyes of drones. Speaking of drones, it has been about a week since the last drone strike. That's kind of a long pause..
Pakistan:
The Pakistani government continues to say that they will resist U.S. pressure on them to launch military operations into North Waziristan. AfPak envoy Richard Holbrooke recently said that Pakistan still has 70,000 soldiers working on flood relief. The foreign minister also trumpeted the Strategic Dialogue taking place between the U.S. and Pakistan.
Speaking of the Pakistani government, they are trying to gain a larger role in peace talks between Afghanistan's government and insurgents.
NATO supply trucks continue to be targeted in Baluchistan province, which borders the tribal areas of Pakistan and Kandahar province in Afghanistan. The main crossing between Kandahar and Balochistan was temporarily closed, reportedly because of visiting Afghan officials.
Maps:
When considering the situation in Pashtunistan, consider these maps of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is in the Pashtun areas where the U.S. and NATO have the most problems. It's important to note that while Pashtuns make up a much larger proportion of the population of Afghanistan than they do in Pakistan, there are still more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. Here is a good map and rundown of the areas that make up the main warzone.