The latest reports of GOP voter leads in Nevada early voting are patently FALSE.
The assertion of how the "% of party voting" makes a difference when the OTHER party leads in raw votes (drop in + absentee) makes no sense. Jon Ralston of The Las Vegas Sun must be getting his info from a Republican strategist because he simply states the statistic with no methodology and history of its effective measurement in past election contests.
Such analytical pronouncements get headlines; but, they don't have to be accurate. And, if an aspiring national political media figure wants attention of being the ultimate arbiter of said race in their state, it doesn't have the be. After all, politics is all about the expected narrative versus electoral reality. But, as clarified by the results of the 2000 Bush v. Gore horse race, there is a big difference between us and them. And guess what (even though the GOP and the media may not like it)..we are WINNING !
Don't be fooled by the 'aspirant' prognosticators.
When it comes to early voting results, in last days in the campaign (full of dirty tricks, lies, and fear-mongering) don't follow the GOP media narrative that they excel at - follow the early voting DATA.
As of Wed. morning 10/27/10,
The overall raw Dem early vote advantage in Clark County (minus some absentees) has INCREASED to 13,058+ DEM votes.
Democrats are still leading in overall early voting in Clark County and our strength is on Election Day NOT early voting (the first time we led Republicans was just in 2008). The pattern for Clark County is for Dems to be
BEHIND and we are
AHEAD in raw votes.
I'd rather be us Dems with MORE people available [a smaller % of voters turned in so far] to vote on Nov. 2nd, than Republicans who now have more sites on vote at this week, but a smaller universe of available 'likely voters' [since a higher % are coming in] for the rest of early voting, and especially Election Day! We are still (albeit less w mobile voting stations moving) EXPANDING our early voting leads. I can't wait for Election Day and a REID victory !
Here are the daily early voting links for Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno-Sparks):
Clark County Early Voting Data
Washoe County Early Voting Data
PS
Here is my letter to TalkingPointsMemo refuting Jon Ralston's assetion and asking them to dig into the numbers a little bit:
Subject: TIP: John Ralston is Wrong About Nevada Early Voting Data
Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 18:25:21 +0000
Hello,
John Ralston is wrong about the significance of the percentage of NV Republican early voters. Relatively-speaking, the overall ability to turnout voters does matter ONLY if those numbers can overshadow the other electorate.
Based solely on raw Dem-registered voters, (as of Wed morning 10/27/10) Democrats LEAD in overall voters in Clark County: 13,058+ votes. At the end of last week, the GOP did have a slim lead statewide in raw registered voters by 125. (no kidding!) However, Dems had a 2,000+ absentee vote lead for an OVERALL early voting lead.
There is NO DATA released or tabulated which indicates a GOP early vote lead (drop in + absentees). Neither will you find ANY published article making that claim. I do not know where Jon Ralston is basing the significance of the' % of one's own party' voting ( nor do I have any knowledge of his source or methodology for making that claim). However, It does fit within the GOP narrative, accepted by the mainstream media.
Here are the daily early voting links for Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno-Sparks):
http://www.accessclarkcounty.com/...
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/...
In many places, DEMS and Republicans can have HIGHER % of each party voting, but STILL lose in the overall vote. - Particularly in areas, where one party has a higher voter registration percentage.
At best, Jon Ralston's assertion about early voting so far is inconclusive.
Please look at the raw early voting data (esp. by party) and see how one can come to 'overall % of party difference' as a significant factor in how this Senate race is developing. Particularly when both Sharron Angle and Harry Reid have HIGH negatives, and there is still viability of the other Tea Party candidate, Scott Ashjian, plus the "None of the Above" option.
The special nature of this Nevada Senate race is curious fact: (because of both leading candidates' high negatives) just because one person choose Dem or GOP as their party ballot, doesn't mean their voting one of these candidates, or either of them.
The current statewide Nevada early voting data does not support Jon Ralston's assertions. According to the latest early data supplied by Clark, Washoe and the NV Secretary of State, more Dem voters are early voting so far, albeit by a thin margin.
In any case, I believe this subject requires further investigation to dig deep in the numbers. Ralston is making a gross oversimplification of the data, which (I believe) he can't support which is why he HASN'T offered any clue as to the significance the particular metric reported. It's very likely such information could be supplied by a Republican strategist spinning (just sayin').
Thanks
My friends, please, write letters to your newspaper, blog, or TV network and ask them to look at the early voting data...there is a roadmap to look at the midterms and it isn't whatever the GOP, the Republican Tea Party, or what an 'unnamed Republican strategist' says.
Ask your favorite outlets not to
outsource journalism and ask them to look and review the available early voting data.
----
Now, that we've finished with
that..
America,
We can END this Republican Tea Party nightmare by going to
Organize for America and begin calling to
GOTV (Get Out The Vote) for Democratic candidates or go to
Senator Harry Reid's web site to sign up and volunteer for the senate campaign.
Do the GOTV! It's just that easy!