TN has 9 reps: 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats
TX has 32 representatives, 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats.
Possibly vulnerable:
TN-04 (D)
TN-06 (D)
TN-08 (D)
TX-17 (D)
TX-23 (D)
TX-27 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about 3 weeks).
-------------------------------
District: TN-01
Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Phil Roe (R)
VoteView 394.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 72-25 over Rob Russell
2006 margin 61-37
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 29-70
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents Michael Clark
Demographics 71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 16th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Roe has $320K COH, no info on Clark.
District: TN-02
Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville. Borders NC map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Duncan (R)
VoteView 434
First elected 1988
2008 margin 69-27 over Doug Vandagriff
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin 79-19
Obama margin 34-64
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents David Hancock
Demographics 73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 40th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Duncan has $1.5 million COH, no info on Hancock.
District: TN-03
Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Zach Wamp (R) Retiring to run for governor
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Democrat John Wolfe, Republican Chuck Fleischman
Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for the Republican. Fleischman has $290K COH, self financed. No info on Wolfe.
District:
Location Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Lincoln Davis (D)
VoteView 221
First elected 2002
2008 margin 59-38 over Monty Lankford
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 55-44
Obama margin 34-64
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Scott DesJarlais
Demographics 4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment This is a very Republican district, but Davis (a very conservative Democrat) has always won pretty easily. Davis has almost $400K COH, DesJarlais has little. A Republican poll had Desjarlais up 45-40, another Republican poll had it tied
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: TN-05
Location Nashville and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jim Cooper (D)
VoteView 197
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-31 over Gerald Donovan
2006 margin 69-28
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents David Hall
Demographics 68th most Blacks (23.4%)
Assessment Safe. Cooper has $400K COH, Hall has little
District:
Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Bart Gordon (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Democrat Brett Carter, Republican Diane Black
Demographics 63rd most rural (46.8%)
Assessment Gordon always won pretty easily, but with him out, this is a likely pickup for the Republicans. Black has about $80K COH, mostly self-financed, Carter has little
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R
District: TN-07
Location Another strange shaped district. Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)
VoteView 407.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 69-31 over Randy Morris
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 33-66
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Current opponents Greg Rabidoux
Demographics 95th most rural (39.0%), 28th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Blackburn has over $800K COH, Rabidoux has little.
District: TN-08
Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative John Tanner (D) Retiring
VoteView 220
First elected 1988
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 74-26
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Democrat Roy Herron, Republican
Stephen Fincher
Demographics 36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Tanner is another conservative Democrat who won easily in a Republican district. As an open seat, this is a contest. Fincher has about $300K COH, Herron about $400 K both partly self-financed. A Republican poll had Fincher up 50-35. An independent poll had Fincher up 47-37
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R
District: TN-09
Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS map
Cook PVI D + 23
Representative Steve Cohen (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2006
2008 margin No Republican
2006 margin 60-22
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 77-22
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Current opponents Charlotte Bergmann
Demographics 76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 38th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Cohen has $830K COH, Bergmann has about $80K.
-------------------------------
District: TX-01
Location Eastern TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AR, including Tyler map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Louie Gohmert (R)
VoteView 362
First elected 2004
2008 margin 88-12 over an independent
2006 margin 68-30
2004 margin 61-38
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 69-31
Current opponents None
Demographics 55th most rural (49.1%), 72nd lowest income (median = $33K), 90th most Blacks (18.9%), 17th most Republican
Assessment No opponent
District: TX-02
Location Oh, the odd shapes of TX districts! This one mostly runs east west, from the LA border (and the Gulf) west to outer Houston. But it also extends north a bit. map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Ted Poe (R)
VoteView 438
First elected 2004
2008 margin 89-11 over a libertarian
2006 margin 66-33
2004 margin 56-43
Obama margin 40-60
Bush margin 2004 63-37
Current opponents None
Demographics 94th most Blacks (19%)
Assessment No opponent
District: TX-03
Location North central TX, including Plano and Garland map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Sam Johnson (R)
VoteView 428
First elected 1991
2008 margin 60-38 over Tom Daley
2006 margin 63-35
2004 margin 86-8-6 over minor parties
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents John Lingenfelder
Demographics 61st highest income (median = $61K), 61st fewest veterans (9.5%).
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Johnson has $600K COH, Lingenfelder has little.
District: TX-04
Location Northeastern TX, bordering OK and AR, including Texarkana map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Ralph Hall (R)
VoteView R + 21
First elected 1980
2008 margin 69-29 over Glenn Melancon
2006 margin 64-33
2004 margin 68-30
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Current opponents Valinda Hathcox
Demographics 44th most rural (50.4%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Hall is the oldest person in the House (born 1923). Safe for Republicans. Hall has little COH, no info on Hathcox.
District: TX-05
Location Shaped like a C; the inner-top of the C is near Dallas, it goes south and then east, and also east directly from Dallas map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Jeb Hansarling (R)
VoteView 441
First elected 2002
2008 margin 84-16 over a Libertarian
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-33
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Tom Berry
Demographics 35th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Hensarling has $1.5 million COH, no info on Berry
District: TX-06
Location Shaped sort of like a boot, with an added doodad on top, the top of the boot is south and west of Dallas, it extends south about 100 miles and then east map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Joe Barton (R)
VoteView 391
First elected 1984
2008 margin 62-36 over Ludwig Otto
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-33
Obama margin 40-60
Bush margin 2004 67-34
Current opponents David Cozad
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe for Republican, even the odious Barton. Barton has $1.6 million COH, Cozad has little.
District: TX-07
Location Western outskirts of Houston map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative John Culberson (R)
VoteView 357
First elected 2000
2008 margin 56-42 over Michael Skelly
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 64-33
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents None
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $58K), 66th fewest veterans (9.9%)
Assessment No opponent
District: TX-08
Location The southern part of eastern TX, bordering LA map
Cook PVI R + 25
Representative Kevin Brady (R)
VoteView 347.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 73-25 over Kent Hargett
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin 25-74
Bush margin 2004 73-28
Current opponents Kent Hargett
Demographics 45th lowest income (median = $40K), 8th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republican. Brady has $300K, no info on Hargett
District: TX-09
Location Part of Houston and southern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 22
Representative Al Green (D)
VoteView 72
First elected 2004
2008 margin 94-6 over a libertarian
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 72-27
Obama margin 77-23
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Current opponents Steve Mueller
Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), 54th most Blacks (37%), 64th most Latinos (32.8%), 12th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly 11% Asians), 38th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Green has $190K COH, Mueller has little.
District: TX-10
Location A long, narrow district running from Austin almost to Houston map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Michael McCaul (R)
VoteView 343
First elected 2004
2008 margin 54-43 over Larry Joe Doherty
2006 margin 55-40
2004 margin 79-15-6 against minor party candidates
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Ted Ankrum
Demographics 77th highest income (median = $52K), 85th most Latinos (18.7%).
Assessment Safe for Republicans. McCaul raised and spent a lot, now has $125K COH, and some debt. Ankrum has little
District: TX-11
Location Western TX, bordering (a little) on NM, including Odessa, Midland, and Brownwood map
Cook PVI R + 28
Representative Michael Conaway (R)
VoteView 413
First elected 2004
2008 margin 88-12 over a libertarian
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 77-22
Obama margin 24-75
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Current opponents James Quillian
Demographics 60th lowest income (median = $33K), 50th most Latinos (29.6%), 3rd most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Conaway has almost $500K COH, Quillian has little.
District: TX-12
Location Part of Ft. Worth, and western and northern suburbs map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Kay Granger (R)
VoteView 358
First elected 1996
2008 margin 68-31 over Tracey Smith
2006 margin 67-31
2004 margin 72-28
Obama margin 36-63
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents Tracey Smith
Demographics 63rd most Latinos (23.7%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Granger has $170K COH, Smith has little.
District: TX-13
Location Northern panhandle, bordering OK and NM map
Cook PVI R + 29
Representative Mac Thornberry (R)
VoteView 393
First elected 1994
2008 margin 78-22 over Roger Waun
2006 margin 74-23
2004 margin 92-8 against a libertarian
Obama margin 23-76
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Current opponents None
Demographics 72nd lowest income (median = $34K), 2nd most Republican
Assessment No opponent
District: TX-14
Location Most of the Gulf Coast of TX map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Ron Paul (R)
VoteView 444
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 33-66
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents Robert Pruett
Demographics 60th most Latinos (24.9%)
Assessment Safe for Republican. Paul has over $2 million COH, Pruett has little.
District: TX-15
Location Southern TX, between the Gulf and Mexico, but bordering neither map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Ruben Hinojosa (D)
VoteView 164
First elected 1996
2008 margin 66-32 over Eddie Zamora
2006 margin 62-24-15 against two Republicans
2004 margin 58-41
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Paul Haring
Demographics 6th lowest income (median = $27K), 59th fewest veterans (9.3%), 18th fewest Whites (19.7%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 2nd most Latinos (77.6%) (only TX-16 is higher), fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (1%)
Assessment Safe. Hinojoasa has about $500K COH, Haring has little.
District: TX-16
Location Westernmost TX, bordering NM and Mexico, including El Paso map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Silvestre Reyes (D)
VoteView 177
First elected 1996
2008 margin 82-10 against an independent
2006 margin 79-21 against a libertarian
2004 margin 68-31
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 44-57
Current opponents Tim Besco
Demographics 43rd lowest income (median = $31K), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), most Latinos (77.7%)
Assessment Safe. Reyes has $140K COH, no info on Besco.
District: TX-17
Location Another TX district with twists, but it's south of Dallas and centers on Waco map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Chet Edwards (D)
VoteView 201
First elected 1990
2008 margin 53-45 over Rob Curnock
2006 margin 58-40
2004 margin 51-47
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Current opponents Bill Flores
Demographics 19th most Republican
Assessment Very endangered. Edwards has over $1.1 million COH, Flores about $100K. A Democratic poll had Flores up 46-42
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Likely R
District: TX-18
Location Shaped sort of like a Q, in Houston and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 24
Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D)
VoteView 17
First elected 1994
2008 margin 77-20 over John Faulk
2006 margin 77-19
2004 margin 89-6-5 against minor party candidates
Obama margin 77-22
Bush margin 2004 28-72
Current opponents John Faulk is running again
Demographics 40th lowest income (median = $31K), 41st fewest veterans (8.3%), 17th fewest Whites (19.7%), 32nd most Blacks (40.1%), 43rd most Latinos (35.6%), 35th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Lee has $150K COH, Faulk has little
District: TX-19
Location Another weird shape...like a W with extra squiggles. Borders NM in the west, then jiggles around eventually almost reaching the OK border; includes Lubbock map
Cook PVI R + 26
Representative Randy Neugebauer (R)
VoteView 420
First elected 2003
2008 margin 72-25 over Dwight Fullingim
2006 margin 68-30
2004 margin 58-40
Obama margin 27-72
Bush margin 2004 78-23
Current opponents Andy Wilson
Demographics 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 53rd most Latinos (29%), 5th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republican. Neugebauer has over $600K COH, Wilson has little.
District: TX-20
Location San Antonio and a odd shaped area around it map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Charlie Gonzalez (D)
VoteView 117.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 72-25 over Robert Litoff
2006 margin 87-13 against a libertarian
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 45-55
Current opponents Clayton Trotter
Demographics 51st lowest income (median = $32K), 31st fewest Whites (23.4%), 9th most Latinos (67.1%)
Assessment Safe. Gonzalez has $300K COH, Trotter has little.
District: TX-21
Location Mostly west of San Antonio, but also north and east of San Antonio, towards Austin map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Lamar Smith (R)
VoteView 351
First elected 1986
2008 margin 80-20 against a libertarian
2006 margin 60-25-9 (two Democrats)
2004 margin 61-30
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents Lainey Melnick
Demographics 25th most veterans (16.8%).
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Smith has $900K COH, Melnick has little.
District: TX-22
Location Oh, I dunno.... a bowtie with one strand loose? Mostly south of Houston map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Pete Olson (R)
VoteView 241
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-45 over Nick Lampson
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Keisha Rogers
Demographics 48th highest income (median = $58K), 42nd most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Olson has $145K but some debt, Lampson has little.
District: TX-23
Location Western TX, except for El Paso, borders Mexico and NM map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Ciro Rodriguez (D)
VoteView 191
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-42 over Lyle Larson
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Quico Canseco
Assessment Not completely safe, Rodriguez has $90K COH, Canseco has about $150K, but largely self-financed. A Republican poll had Canseco up 45-39
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: TX-24
Location Shaped like a T between Dallas and Ft. Worth map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Kenny Marchant (R)
VoteView 411
First elected 2004
2008 margin 56-41 over Tom Love
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Current opponents None
Demographics 47th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment No opponent
District: TX-25
Location Austin and southern and eastern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Lloyd Doggett (D)
VoteView 122
First elected 1994
2008 margin 66-30 over George Morovich
2006 margin 67-26
2004 margin 68-31
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 46-54
Current opponents Donna Campbell
Demographics 94th fewest veterans (10.8%), 98th fewest Whites (52.9%), 45th most Latinos (33.9%)
Assessment safe. Doggett has almost $3 million COH, Morovich has little.
District: TX-26
Location A square with two sticks, running north from Ft. Worth to the OK border map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Michael Burgess (R)
VoteView 369
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-36 over Ken Leach
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 66-33
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Current opponents Neil Durrance
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe for Republican. Burgess has $65K COH, no info on Leach
District: TX-27
Location The southern Gulf coast map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Solomon Ortiz (D)
VoteView 175
First elected 1982
2008 margin 58-38 over Willie Vaden
2006 margin 57-39
2004 margin 63-35
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents James Duerr
Demographics 41st lowest income (median = $31K), 34th fewest Whites (27.6%), 8th most Latinos (68.1%)
Assessment Ortiz has $145K COH, Duerr has little.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D
District: TX-28
Location Southern TX along the Mexican border map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Henry Cuellar (D)
VoteView 216
First elected 2004
2008 margin 69-29 over Jim Fish
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 54-46
Obama margin 56-44
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Bryan Underwood
Demographics 17th lowest income (median = $29K), 49th fewest veterans (8.7%), 20th fewest Whites (20.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 3rd most Latinos (77.5%)
Assessment Safe. Cuellar has $400K COH, Underwood has little.
District: TX-29
Location If you can describe this shape, you're good! East of Houston map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Gene Green (D)
VoteView 173.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 75-24 over Eric Story
2006 margin 74-24
2004 margin 94-6 against a libertarian.
Obama margin 62-38
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Current opponents Roy Morales
Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 10th most Latinos (66.1%)
Assessment Safe. Green has $750K COH, Morales has little
District: TX-30
Location Dallas and southern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 27
Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
VoteView 60
First elected 1992
2008 margin 83-16 over Fred Wood
2006 margin 80-18
2004 margin 93-7 against a libertarian
Obama margin 82-18
Bush margin 2004 25-75
Current opponents Stephen Broden
Demographics 72nd lowest income ($34K), 45th fewest veterans (8.4%), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 30th most Blacks (41.4%), 43rd most Latinos (34.2%), 26th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Johnson has $260K COH, Broden has about $190K
District: TX-31
Location North and west of Austin map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative John Carter (R)
VoteView 361
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over Brian Ruiz
2006 margin 58-39
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 41-57
Bush margin 2004 67-34
Current opponents None
Demographics 29th most veterans (16.4%)
Assessment No opponent
District: TX-32
Location Shaped like most of a circle, near Dallas map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Pete Sessions (R)
VoteView 406
First elected 1996
2008 margin 57-41 over Eric Roberson
2006 margin 56-41
2004 margin 54-44
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Grier Raggio
Demographics 53rd fewest veterans (8.9%), 90th fewest Whites (50.1%), 40th most Latinos (36.2%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Sessions has $1 million COH, Raggio has little.