Among the roughly three-fourths of registered voters interviewed on a landline by Marist for McClatchy, Democrats and Republicans were tied on the generic congressional ballot with 43 percent apiece. However, among the roughly one-quarter of registered voters interviewed on their cell phones, the Democrats held a sizable 59 percent to 33 percent lead.
Before you get too excited, dismissing all landline-only polling as biased against the Dems, note that Gallup calls cell phones, and they pain the direst picture for Democrats this cycle. But it's certainly something to look at, particularly as we analyze the polling in the postmortem after the election.
Phoenix businessman Jon Hulburd put the additional quarter-million into his campaign account Wednesday so he can continue running ads through Nov. 2, his campaign told POLITICO. The new money brings Hulburd’s total personal investment to $500,000, all invested in the last month of the race. Arizona Democratic insiders said a new Hulburd internal poll — taken after a Public Policy Polling survey for the liberal blog Daily Kos showed Hulburd up 2 points over the former vice president's son — shows the difference between the two men is within the margin of error as the race enters its final days. It's a big shift from a different internal taken several weeks ago that showed him trailing Quayle. “Everyone’s really energized" about the poll, said Jennifer Johnson, spokeswoman for the Arizona Democratic Party. Johnson said the race would come down to how strong Hulburd's field and get-out-the-vote operations are.
Phoenix businessman Jon Hulburd put the additional quarter-million into his campaign account Wednesday so he can continue running ads through Nov. 2, his campaign told POLITICO. The new money brings Hulburd’s total personal investment to $500,000, all invested in the last month of the race.
Arizona Democratic insiders said a new Hulburd internal poll — taken after a Public Policy Polling survey for the liberal blog Daily Kos showed Hulburd up 2 points over the former vice president's son — shows the difference between the two men is within the margin of error as the race enters its final days. It's a big shift from a different internal taken several weeks ago that showed him trailing Quayle.
“Everyone’s really energized" about the poll, said Jennifer Johnson, spokeswoman for the Arizona Democratic Party. Johnson said the race would come down to how strong Hulburd's field and get-out-the-vote operations are.
Democrat Frank Caprio’s support has collapsed in the wake of controversial comments he made about President Obama’s decision to withhold an endorsement in the Rhode Island governor’s race, according to a new poll from NBC10 and Quest Research. The survey, released late Wednesday night, shows independent candidate Lincoln Chafee solidifying his lead in the three-way race with 35 percent, but it’s GOP nominee John Robitaille who has surged late in the race, leapfrogging Caprio to claim second place with 28 percent. Caprio, the state treasurer, is close behind Robitaille with 25 percent of the vote. Moderate Party candidate Ken Block registered 2 percent support, and 10 percent of respondents were still undecided. The poll tested 523 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4 percent. The poll is the first taken after Caprio told a Rhode Island radio station on Monday that the president could take his endorsement and “shove it” after it was announced that Obama would not be wading into the race.
Democrat Frank Caprio’s support has collapsed in the wake of controversial comments he made about President Obama’s decision to withhold an endorsement in the Rhode Island governor’s race, according to a new poll from NBC10 and Quest Research.
The survey, released late Wednesday night, shows independent candidate Lincoln Chafee solidifying his lead in the three-way race with 35 percent, but it’s GOP nominee John Robitaille who has surged late in the race, leapfrogging Caprio to claim second place with 28 percent. Caprio, the state treasurer, is close behind Robitaille with 25 percent of the vote. Moderate Party candidate Ken Block registered 2 percent support, and 10 percent of respondents were still undecided. The poll tested 523 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4 percent.
The poll is the first taken after Caprio told a Rhode Island radio station on Monday that the president could take his endorsement and “shove it” after it was announced that Obama would not be wading into the race.
It began as a movement to take back the United States from corrupt politicians. The Tea Party movement has been hijacked by Republicans and is now all about guns, gods and gays. Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker was one of the original founders of the Tea Party and calls the direction of the group an absolute joke.
More than 228,000 people have now voted in Clark County at the polls or by mail – 46 percent Democrats (a tick above their registration) and 38 percent Republicans (about 5 points more than their registration). Republicans now have nearly a 5 percent turnout lead in Clark – the next two days, presumably the heaviest, could be key to the U.S. Senate race. About 54,000 people have voted early in Washoe County, with the Republicans holding a 3 percent edge. Rural tallies are harder to come by, but one knowledgeable source says the total number voted is now about 330,000, and the Republicans have under a 4 percent edge. (It was 6 percent overall in 2006, but more people proportionally will vote early this year, so it’s not apples to apples.)
More than 228,000 people have now voted in Clark County at the polls or by mail – 46 percent Democrats (a tick above their registration) and 38 percent Republicans (about 5 points more than their registration). Republicans now have nearly a 5 percent turnout lead in Clark – the next two days, presumably the heaviest, could be key to the U.S. Senate race.
About 54,000 people have voted early in Washoe County, with the Republicans holding a 3 percent edge. Rural tallies are harder to come by, but one knowledgeable source says the total number voted is now about 330,000, and the Republicans have under a 4 percent edge. (It was 6 percent overall in 2006, but more people proportionally will vote early this year, so it’s not apples to apples.)
Dems have a 14,000-vote lead in urban Nevada. Polling also shows that Reid gets significantly more support from Republicans than Angle gets from Democrats, so remember that this aren't vote tallies, just ballots cast.
One final note about the intensity gap -- at least here in Nevada, it's not that Dems aren't turning out, it's that Republicans are disproportionately turning out relative to their registrations. So 46 percent of Nevada voters are registered Democrats, and that's the level they're turning out. Republicans are way outperforming their 33%. That means that it's independents who are turning out at lower levels. Why? Because the mid-terms are base elections. Republicans understood that the last two years, the Democrats didn't.