McClatchy/Marist has a new poll out today in which they included in their poll voters who use cell only as well as landline voters. They have found that among registered voters Democrats lead 47% to 41% and in the case of likely voters it is tied at Republicans 46% and Democrats 46%.
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/...
McClatchy/Marist have a new poll out that shows that Democrats have caught up with Republicans in terms of being a likely voter. Unlike automated polls (PPP, Rasmussen, FOX, etc), this poll added cell only voters as part of their panel. This is important because PEW poll has shown that voters who use cell phone only are much more likely to be younger and Democrats. Furthermore PEW has shown that more and more voters are using cell only in communication and that can be as high as 23% of voters.
Unclear if this poll is an outlier or showing a trend but McClatchy/Marist are experienced pollsters.
McClatchy/Marist says:
According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, 47% of registered voters nationwide report they are more likely to vote for a Democrat in their district while 41% say they are more likely to support a Republican. Six percent do not plan to vote for either party’s candidate, and 6% are undecided.
When looking at likely voters nationally, neither party has the competitive edge. Among this group of voters, 46% say they are more likely to vote for a Democrat while 46% report they are more likely to support a Republican candidate. Four percent will not vote for either party’s candidate, and the same proportion — 4% — are undecided.
In terms of going to the polls on election day McClatchy/Marist poll still shows the GOP has an edge.
However, Republicans gain the advantage among voters who are the most likely to go to the polls on Election Day. Here, 49% report they are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate while 43% say they are more likely to support a Democrat. Three percent believe they will not vote for either party’s candidate, and 4% are undecided.
Johnathan Singer looked at this poll and chalks up the differences between the "likely voter" model with this poll vs others is that this poll specifically uses a good proportion of cell only voters.
http://www.polising.com/...
Digging a little deeper into the survey, an extremely interesting and important number comes out: The Democrats' strength among registered voters comes directly from the cell-only population.
Among the roughly three-fourths of registered voters interviewed on a landline by Marist for McClatchy, Democrats and Republicans were tied on the generic congressional ballot with 43 percent apiece. However, among the roughly one-quarter of registered voters interviewed on their cell phones, the Democrats held a sizable 59 percent to 33 percent lead.
This data buttresses the findings published earlier this month by Pew that if pollsters are skipping cell-only voters -- exactly the type of voters who are more likely to vote Democratic -- their results may simply be too favorable for the GOP.
In the end this is all about GOTV. Whom ever has the better ground game will come up on top for the enthusiasm gap is tightening.
With numbers like these, it’s no wonder both parties are putting the pedal to the floor to get their supporters out," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "What location is to real estate, turnout is to this year’s political landscape."