PPP for Daily Kos (10/2-3, 605 LVs, MoE +/- 4.0%):
Louisiana 2nd district:
Cedric Richmond (D): 49%
Joseph Cao (R, Inc.): 38%
LA-02 is a Democratic stronghold, favoring Charlie Melancon over David Vitter by a 65%-28% margin. Indeed, if it weren't for the fact that he was running against a crook in 2008, Cao never would have gotten elected in the first place. He's voted to the left of any other Republican in the House -- even supporting health care reform -- and voters in the district actually have a favorable opinion of him by a 50%-29% margin. That's identical to the 50%-28% positive rating for Richmond, but Cao's support for the GOP leadership and by extension its agenda appears to be too high a hurdle for him to overcome, especially with ads like this from President Obama endorsing his Democratic opponent Cedric Richmond:
PPP's Tom Jensen tells us that the poll shows it would take a political earthquake for Cao to win. Not only does he trail Richmond by double digits, far more undecided voters are Democrats (61%) than Republicans (12%). So Cao not only has to erase a gap with those who have already decided, but needs to win undecided voters -- most of whom are Democrats.