The NATO conference in Lisbon is underway. Expect Russia to talk about
cooperation on counter-narcotic operations and efforts.
The U.S. is getting ready for the December review of the troop surge and the overall AfPak problem. Amongst the topics will be the U.S./Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. The U.S. has also urged Pakistan and India to talk about Kashmir- again. Ayatollah Ali Khamanai, the Supreme Dictator of Iran, has meanwhile urged Muslims to back the Kashmir struggle- an announcement that is sure to earn him points from many in Pakistan.
Afghanistan:
Very
few Afghans in the Taliban-heartland of Kandahar and Helmand even know about the 9/11 attacks that pulled the U.S. into Afghanistan.
16 M1 Abram tanks will be deployed in Helmand province. This will be the first time the U.S. deploys tanks in mountainous Afghanistan. Helmand province, though, is not all that mountainous relative to the other provinces.
Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist considered an expert on AfPak affairs, interviewed Hamid Karzai. Rashid's takeaway is that Karzai is seriously growing weary of the stepped-up coalition operations against insurgent leaders, and that there is room to compare Karzai to Najibullah.(if you don't know who Najibullah is......)
The numbers I usually compile and post on Sundays to estimate the number of suspected-insurgents captured/killed will show a significant drop in the number of special operation raids(counter-terrorism). The numbers began being compiled on the same day that Afghan President Hamid Karzai demanded such operations be halted, suggesting either that he got close-to his way or that they just aren't making as many press releases about such raids.
Federally-Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan:
The Washington Post provides an update on central/eastern South Waziristan, the region where Pakistan launched a huge military offensive last year to drive out the Mehsud-led militants. Things could be much better there.
Another drone strike in North Waziristan. Over 100 such strikes have been launched this year. The CIA program is on track to double last year's total of 53 strikes, which itself was a substantial increase from the 36 conducted in the last year of the Bush administration. The U.S. may try to expand the drone program.
Militants allegedly fired rockets from Afghanistan into the central-FATA agency of Kurram. Kurram has been in the spotlight lately. The agency juts out into eastern-Afghanistan like a dagger pointing at Kabul. The insurgents would love to use the agency to conduct attacks into Afghanistan, and reports suggest that both the Haqqani network and the Pakistani military are trying to bring that dream to reality. The problem for them is two Shia tribes that are feverently anti-Taliban, and who are apparently surrounded by the militants on one side and the Pakistani military on the other.
Pakistan:
According to the Pakistani government, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto was carried out by Pakistani Taliban militants under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud. That is significant because at the time, the people heading the current government had pointed the finger at then-President Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf was cleared of having a hand in any of it. The current government is headed by Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari- who is deeply unpopular.
Siraj Haqqani, the leader of the Haqqani Network, may no longer be in FATA. According to a report by the Daily Times, a Pakistani daily, the elusive insurgent leader now has a safe house outside of the tribal areas. He had before been reportedly moved north from North Waziristan to Kurram agency, but a NATO incursion by helicopters reportedly came very close to him. No suggestions are made as to where exactly in Pakistan Siraj is being safe-guarded.
The vast province of Balochistan remains a mess brought together by poverty, exploitation, ethnic and political tensions, et cetra. The infamous city of Quetta is the provincial capital, and the province borders Afghanistan's Nimruz, Helmand, and Kandahar provinces.
The U.S. appears to be looking for more alternative routes that do not run through Pakistan to bring supplies into Afghanistan. Shocking.
Lashkar-i-Taiba's ever-shifting connection to charities and politics. If you don't know what Lashkar-i-Taiba is...
Maps:
When considering the situation in Pashtunistan, consider these maps of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is in the Pashtun areas where the U.S. and NATO have the most problems. It's important to note that while Pashtuns make up a much larger proportion of the population of Afghanistan than they do in Pakistan, there are still more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. Here is a good map and rundown of the areas that make up the main warzone.