The problem with Blue Dogs is that they're fundamentally obtuse, so smug and secure in their superiority that they're unable to adjust to shifting political realities.
Here's Arkansas' Rep. Mike Ross, a rare surviving Blue Dog:
Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), one of the Blue Dog Democrats who led the charge against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) remaining Democratic leader Wednesday, said he isn’t worried about threats from the left that centrists who opposed Pelosi will face electoral consequences.
“Labor and MoveOn did that with Sen. [Blanche] Lincoln [D-Ark.] and it worked real well for them didn’t it?” Ross said after emerging from an hours-long meeting of the Democratic caucus that elected Nancy Pelosi minority leader for the upcoming Congress.
The first and most obvious response is that, um, Blanche Lincoln lost. Our goal was to defeat her so that we had a chance of holding the seat. Mike Ross and his establishment buddies won the primary. Hurray for them! But we were right -- Lincoln was a guaranteed loser. It wasn't much of a general election, the results were never in doubt. If Lincoln and Ross and Bill Clinton and the rest of the crowd backing the incumbent hadn't been so pig-headed, we might've salvaged the seat.
So I'm not sure what Ross is crowing about. His candidate lost. Bottom line.
But here's an even more interesting bit of information:
Here’s the thing though that Mike Ross might be a little concerned about while he talks about how badly that election worked out for us progressives…
Bill Halter beat Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas’ Fourth District
That’s Mike Ross’ district. Halter won on Primary night and in the Runoff that followed.
2010 Arkansas Democratic Primary (4th District Only)
Bill Halter – 45%
Blanche Lincoln – 40%
2010 Arkansas Democratic Primary Runoff (4th District Only)
Bill Halter – 52%
Blanche Lincoln – 48%
jsamuel at Blue Arkansas concludes:
So Mike Ross shouldn’t be so confident that the Blue Dogs are safe and are the ones that need to be in congress to save Democrats from themselves. The truth is that Bill Halter’s BEST district was Ross’. That says something about swing districts alright, but not that they prefer wish washy back and forth middle-of-the-roaders as Mike Ross would have us believe. Instead, it shows that his district preferred a real Democrat to an undependable and unlikable one.
When facing talk of a potential primary challenge, incumbents can approach it two ways. They can be gracious and humble and work to diffuse opposition by acknowledging whatever frustrations are fueling it, or they can be Lieberman-esque raging assholes and all but guarantee primary opposition.
Ross is clearly in the latter camp, in a district where Democrats appreciate populist outsiders. Not a smart move.