I don't think it's too early to start thinking about the 2012 Senate elections. It's not a pretty picture with 21 Democratic seats to defend, only 10 Republican seats in mostly safely R states (except Scott Brown in MA), 1 Independent seat (Bernie Sanders in VT is a lock) and 1 Connecticut for Lieberman seat that we better damn well win back.
If you recall, this is the Senate Class of 2006 where we managed some surprisingly close wins (Tester in MT, Webb in VA, McCaskill in MO). We'll also need to consider if any of the Senators up for re-election will retire and forego a re-election bid.
Not knowing who the opponents will be yet, here's my rough ranking of the 2012 Senate races:
Dems Most At Risk:
MO - Claire McCaskill
VA - Jim Webb
MT - Jon Tester
WV - Joe Manchin
FL - Bill Nelson
NE - Ben Nelson
MN - Amy Klobuchar
MI - Debbie Stabenow
OH - Sherrod Brown
PA - Bob Casey, Jr.
Dems Might Be At Risk:
NJ - Bob Menendez
WA - Maria Cantwell
WI - Herb Kohl
ND - Kent Conrad
Dems Most Likely Safe:
DE - Tom Carper
RI - Sheldon Whitehouse
NM - Jeff Bingaman
MD - Ben Cardin
NY - Kirsten Gillibrand
CA - Dianne Feinstein
Dems Likely to Retire, Seat Prob Safe:
HI - Daniel Akaka - will be 88 in 2012
Independent Most Likely Safe:
VT - Bernie Sanders
Connecticut for Lieberman Most At Risk:
CT - Joe Lieberman
Reps Most At Risk:
MA - Scott Brown
ME - Olympia Snowe - Primary
Reps Might Be At Risk:
AZ - Jon Kyl
NV - John Ensign
Reps Most Likely Safe:
WY - John Barrasso
UT - Orrin Hatch
TX - Kay Bailey Hutchinson
TN - Bob Corker
MS - Roger Wicker
IN - Richard Lugar
I think that the only thing going for us is that this will be a Presidential election year which will bring out a lot of young voters who will support Obama for re-election, which might help keep some of the blue seats blue. I think our best chances are likely the following:
- Convince Snowe that she is done as a Republican and to switch parties (although after what happened to Specter, she might be less inclined)
- Try to primary Ben Nelson in NE with a real Democrat, although either way, this is either a lost seat or we're stuck with Ben Nelson obstructing for another 6 years
- Get behind a solid candidate in CT that will soundly defeat Lieberman
- Find a strong candidate in MA to contest Brown for Kennedy's old seat
- Be ready with a solid candidate in HI, should Akaka retire
- Raise money like hell for McCaskill, Webb, Bill Nelson, Brown, Casey, Klobuchar, Tester, et. al.
- Find decent candidates to run against Ensign in NV and Kyl in AZ. If a large number of Latinos come out to support Obama, we could potentially take one, if not both, of these seats in these Western states.
Pessimist in me (Dem -8 seats):
We lose MO, VA, FL, MI, OH, PA, MN
Lieberman and Brown win re-election
Lieberman caucuses with Republicans
Optimist in me (Dem +3 seats):
We hold all Dem seats
We oust Lieberman with a real Democrat
Snowe switches sides and wins as a Dem
We win back Kennedy's old seat in MA
We pick up either AZ or NV
So as you can see, the picture isn't pretty for the Democrats. There are a lot of seats to defend and without a recovering economy, this is going to be an uphill battle. So, roll up your sleeves, be aware of the Senate election landscape and start supporting these Senators in the next year or so.
And if you think 2012 looks bad, don't even get me started on what the 2014 mid-term looks like.
Hint: Begich, Udall, Udall, Landrieu, Franken, Baucus, Hagan, etc.
And oh yeah, bring back Schumer as head of the DSCC, that guy kicked some ass.