OK folks, it's time to look at 2012 and the essential reelection of Obama (essential at least to not turn back the clock to the dark days of W.)
Presuming that there is still a reduced generic ballot preference for Democrats, then a good guide to how the Electoral College will turn out can be surmised from an analysis of the 2008 and 2010 elections. So here goes.
First look at the 2008 results, with 365 EVs. There were a whole bunch of purple states (and that congressional district in NE) that were won with not much cushion. For the sake of argument, let's presume that these go the other way. These states/districts are NE-02, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, for a total of 2000 Census EV's of 87. So the hypothetical election in 2008 without these EVs would result in 365 - 87 = 278.
But the 2012 election will not be tabulated using the 2000 Census EV's, but rather the 2010 Census EV's. Of the remaining Obama states, using the latest guesstimates, the net difference is WA & NV : + 1; IA, IL, MI, PA, NJ, MA : - 1; NY : - 2 for a total of - 6. (NOTE: it could turn out that NY : - 1, MN : - 1, WA : 0, so the net difference could be anywhere from - 5 to - 8.)
So the hypothetical election with those closely won states going red would result in Obama with b/w 270 & 273 EV's. That's the good news. The bad news is that there are a set of states that were won in 2008 by better margins then those purple states, but still not overwhelmingly enough so that if the generic ballot and turnout that existed for this past 2010 election were to apply in 2012, that could be in danger of going red: NH, CO, IA, WI. Even under the best 2010 Census projection, each one would be necessary to get to the magic 270. CO was a squeaker for the blue senator against a full-blooded Teabagger , WI was a close victory for a semi-Teabagger, but NH was a blowout (I'm presuming the red candidate was not a Teabagger.) If Obama were to lose any of these states, he would need to swing an almost equal number of EV's from those purple states which did not support him as strongly in 2008 (and went very red this last time!)
Something to think about!