As both major political parties count down the hours (or days, in the perpetually anomalous Bayou State) and prepare to ramp the spin cycle into hyperdrive, a scattering of lower ballot features combine with the premiere governor battles in vying for attention. For any and all political junkies anxious to parse the tea leaves in this off-year 2003 election cycle, I've put together the following summary of notable highlights appearing on ballots across the nation. Please consider this a most superficial overview - in-depth perspective from more erudite, on-the-scene pundits is highly desirable!
Anyhow, without further ado:
GOVERNOR RACES
As returns stream in Tuesday night, party strategists will fixate their attention on the rancorous Kentucky battle - a most dubious bellwether, to be sure, in an increasingly Republican state. Widely viewed as an early test-market run of the pivotal 2004 Democratic "it's the job-loss economy, stupid" campaign theme, this election will no less hinge on Republican calls for a change - little more than thinly veiled reference to the outgoing Gov. Patton's sexual misadventures.
In the final analysis, it's virtually impossible to separate whatever dubious national implications from the local personalities and issues involved in the Bluegrass State. While GOPers won't hesitate to hype an expected victory by congress critter Ernie Fletcher, an improbable triumph by Attorney General Ben Chandler would provide a much more compelling storyline - both vindicating the anti-Bush theme and redeeming Dem GOTV efforts despite all the stars aligned against him.
A no-less-rancorous groundwar for the Mississippi governor's mansion could come down to a state House vote if neither incumbent Governor Ronnie Musgrove nor erstwhile RNC chairman and DC lobbyist Haley Barbour secure 50% of the vote. Combining the absurd popularity of GWB in the Deep South with features by the Klanesque Council of Conservative Citizens, Barbour hopes to prevail against a vigorous GOTV Musgrove effort relying on a heavy African-American turnout.
A notable subplot in the Treasurer campaign pits the eminently qualified Gary Anderson against a GOP nonentity in what would be a blowout landslide were it not for Anderson's race. In any event, can Musgrove stem the rising GOP tide once again and also maintain the last great hope for Magnolia State Democrats reclaiming a future open Senate seat? Will the heavily Dem but quite conservative House [81-38] vote for Musgrove without his securing an outright plurality?
Meanwhile, Cajun maven Kathleen Babineaux Blanco continues her quest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Bayou State. On November 15, Louisiana voters will decide whether to give the centrist Lafayette Lt. Gov. a promotion or whether to elect relative neophyte Piyush "Bobby" Jindal as the nation's first Indian-American governor. Anything could happen in this most unusual of contests as Blanco the latest polling has this race deadlocked at 42%.
Having fallen behind as much as 11% in recent weeks after once leading as high as 7%, Blanco has broken her inexplicable self-imposed silence on the airwaves with ads featuring appearances by Senator Breaux. Jindal has scored a coup of his own with the support of African-American New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and this appears every bit the tossup with less than two weeks to go. A Senate seat hangs in the balance as Breaux mulls retirement in the event Blanco hangs on.
STATE LEGISLATURES
New Jersey Democrats seek to break a 20-20 deadlock in that state's Senate and solidify their slim 41-38-1 majority in the General Assembly. The indispensable PoliticsNJ rates 19 Senate seats for the Dems versus 18 for the GOP and 3 tossups, raising hopes that the convoluted power-sharing arrangement can get jettisoned. On the Assembly side, 39 seats lean toward the Dems with only 33 for the Reps and 8 tossups.
Virginia Democrats hope to end their long losing streak in that state's House of Delegates with their first net gain in 20 years - at least two or as many as five. Governor Mark Warner has also guided part of $1 million from his into several vigorously contested state Senate battles, hoping to narrow the 23-17 GOP edge in that chamber.