As Kos' recent piece discusses, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty may be fatally damaged in any bid for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. Unfortunately the socially conservative, overwhelmingly Christian "family values" crowd that controls the Republican nominating process doesn't look too kindly upon convicted child molesters and the governors who pardon them. The world can be cruel that way.
So let's assume Pawlenty is effectively out of contention. Where does that leave the GOP? Honestly, not looking too good.
First you've got Mitt Romney, the former one-term governor of Massachusetts and the Man Who Saved The Olympics. He certainly looks presidential. In fact, he looks like he was sent up by Central Casting specifically to play the part. Too bad there's nothing else there. Romney will do and say whatever it takes to get elected. He's a phony, and it shows. He's also a Mormon, which will not sit well with Republican kingmakers like James Dobson. And he signed Romneycare, the prototype for the hated Obamacare, into law. He's been making the rounds with party leaders, trying to convince them that he's their man. But it remains to be seen whether his Schmooze Offensive will be enough to win over the skeptics. And the Christians.
Speaking of Christians, Mike Huckabee is a favorite of that crowd. And his Fox show gives him an ongoing spot in the public eye. But the murder of four Seattle area police officers by a man Huckabee released from prison would seem to be a major albatross around his neck. Republicans like law and order credentials, after all. And any potential primary challengers are bound to make hay of this incident in the ugliest possible way. The religious right does have a persecution complex, so it's possible that an attack on Huckabee could be turned to the former governor's advantage. But on balance it seems more like a liability.
Newt Gingrich? He certainly acts like he intends to run. But the religious right hates him, which is a pretty big problem if you're looking for the GOP nod. And I think once back on the stage in a big way, people would very quickly remember why they disliked this guy in the first place.
Other names have been thrown around, like Bobby Jindal and Marco Rubio. But they both suffer from a relative lack of name recognition compared to the other major contenders. And Rubio, in particular, will have been in the Senate for less than a year when he'd need to seriously start running.
And then there's Sarah Palin. The Mama Grizzly herself. I don't know about her. Does she want to be president, or does she just want to be a celebrity? Certainly she loves the attention of being in the spotlight. But nothing in her background indicates that she has any interest in having real responsibility. I could almost imagine her running some quixotic third party candidacy, a la Ross Perot, that would enable her to bask in the spotlight of being a presidential candidate without any danger of actually having to be president.
But let's say she's serious about running. The Christian right certainly loves her. At least, the rank and file do. It's not entirely clear to me how the movement's kingmakers, like James Dobson, feel privately. They may be evil, but they're not stupid. They know that Palin is unpredictable, not to mention almost certainly unelectable. Would they be willing to take a chance on her? I wonder.
So who does that leave?
I've been seeing an awful lot of Jeb Bush in the media lately...