A few weeks ago, I outlined how Democrats could regain the House in 2012. Many thought I was way too optimistic. It now appears that I was. Republicans control redistricting in most states and Democrats dont seem like they mind being in the minority the way the caved on the tax deal.
On top of that, we have a DNC that doesnt care about winning anything but the White House for Obama in 2012.
The problem for Democrats is that they lost a lot of seats that they will never be able to get back, meaning that it would take a major wave to regain control. As for redistricting, Republicans will control the process in big states like Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Democrats will only control the process in Illinois and Maryland.
This means that Republicans will able to make their freshmen members much safer and harder for Democrats to beat.
This is why it probably would have been better electorally for Democrats had Obama not won the 2008 election. Had he not won, Democrats likely would have been in a better position in 2010 for redistricting. They likely would have had control of the process not only in Illinois and Maryland, but also New York and North Carolina, and would have probably had a say in the process in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Now Republicans will probably be able to draw themselves a House majority that lasts a generation.