The most difficult aspect of this deal--which Republicans knew from the moment that they took it as a hostage--was unemployment benefits for millions of out-of-work Americans. That's what makes it such a great hostage because liberals who hate this deal to the core for everything that it gives away, including core principles of equity, abhor the idea of cutting the millions of unemployed off. It creates a huge dilemma.
And it points up a larger issue, one that Kombiz Lavasany (formerly new media director for the DNC) tweeted. This deal means that "not extending UI during deep recession has become the new normal and not seen as radical." We were set up for that months ago, when neither the White House nor Dem leadership in Congress fought hard enough against continued Republican obstruction of the program. And it makes it all the harder to not see parity in the extension of jobless benefits for the tax cuts--if we have two more years of tax cuts, shouldn't their be 24 months of UI? On this point, Arthur Delaney has a bone to pick with the White House.
During a conference call with reporters on Monday evening, a senior administration official said a 13-month reauthorization would be the longest-ever extension of such a generous benefits program.
"This is the longest extension of unemployment insurance at this scale that we've ever had," the official said. "It's also the longest we've done in a while. And rarely have we done very much longer, but there have been times when smaller-scale ones were done for a little bit longer a while ago."
Congress has given the unemployed extra weeks of emergency benefits during every recession since the 1950s. As unemployment rises, more unemployed workers exhaust the regular 26 weeks of state-funded benefits without finding work. The average jobless spell currently lasts 33.8 weeks, according to Labor Department data released Friday.
In October 1983, with Republicans controlling the White House and the Senate and the national unemployment rate at 8.8 percent, extended benefits were reauthorized for 17 months.
Unemployment benefits have always been emergency spending and have always been extended, by Republicans and Democrats alike, and for longer periods than 13 months. Ceding its status and not hammering on the fact that the Republican position is radical is the first problem with this deal. The second problem is that it just kicks the can 13 months down the road, when the GOP will happily find another hostage (Social Security? Medicaid? Pell Grants? More food stamp cuts? It could be anything) to hold out on. And we'll be right back here again.
Beyond that, we've seen for too long a tendency for DC to pass a temporary extension and then forget that the issue exists until the next expiration, setting up this same fight over, and over, and over again instead of spending the interim using the bully pulpit to fight for the unemployed. And I'm really afraid that the 99ers will fall completely off the radar. They were not included in this deal, and because they weren't included in this deal, it's going to be even harder to get them included in any future legislation.
In the larger picture, the deal will lead to more austerity in the long run. Short-term stimulus based on tax cuts, even if it includes a UI extension, greatly increases the chances of slashing essential spending over the long haul. This has all the hallmarks of a set up by the GOP to argue for even more drastic cuts to domestic programs, and that's going to include unemployment benefits 13 months from now.
Delaney reports that the advocate organization support the deal:
"While it is a deal that gives much to the top 2 percent of wage earners in this country, and far less to those struggling the most in this economy, we commend the White House and all negotiators for realizing that the long-term unemployed need our continued support," said Judy Conti, a lobbyist for the National Employment Law Project. (Conti said on Monday it was a "shame" that two years of unemployment was not on the table.) "There is much more to be done, especially for those who are beyond the reach of the UI system, but this is a very positive first step."
They have a perfectly valid reason to support this, but also a valid reason to argue for a better deal. This has been a miserable fight for advocacy groups. This could give them 13 months to regroup for the next fight, which they'll have to do. That's completely understandable. But it's still a really bad deal.