Several days ago I highlighted a report that was suggesting relatively few civilians had been able to evacuate the Taliban-held town of Marja in Helmand province's river valley. The town and its U.S.-built irrigation canals are vital to the opium trade and is the last major stronghold of the Taliban in southern-Afghanistan. The reason NATO forces have been loudly-publicizing this offensive was to convince as many civilians as possible to leave the area until the fighting, expected to last weeks, is over.
It increasingly looks like only a fraction of the civilian population has been able to escape the area.
Mines meant to keep NATO forces out appear to be keeping civilians trapped inside. Even if one takes into account the fact that many have likely bunked up with relatives or haven't bothered to register themselves as displaced, it's clear that many civilians haven't fled. When one considers the tactics and objectives of counter-insurgency one can easily figure out why this is going to be problematic.
It appears to have been noticed. NATO forces have begun dropping leaflets into the Marja area, encouraging civilians to keep their heads down to avoid the cross-fire.(Reuters) The Taliban have been warning those who tried to leave of the mines, suggesting that they remain in what will soon be a center of urban combat.(Associated Press)
There could still be 70,000 if not more in the town of Marja; many more civilians than the up-to 2,000 militants estimated to be in the area. The presence of so many civilians, along with the ample time militants have had to dig in their positions and their many forms of explosives, doesn't bode well for the allies.
Consider the successful Pakistani fight against the Taliban in South Waziristan. Operation Rah-e-Najat was also a poorly-kept and much-publicized "secret". The Pakistani military also encouraged the civilians to leave. The civilians did leave. This allowed them to employ their incremental approach against militant positions and mines backed up by heavy fire-power that the militants couldn't match. That heavy fire-power is less likely to be used in densely-populated Marja, meaning NATO and Afghan forces will have to put themselves at greater risk to reduce the risk to civilians trapped between a rock and a hard place.
This is not a prediction of failure but it is certainly another grim update.