A lot of data floating around (a lot of it from Rasmussen), not to mention quite a bit of news from the campaign trail. It is a particularly busy Friday...a fine way to close out the week on the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
CO-Sen: Dem Primary Heats Up With Endorsements and Campaign Stops
The Democratic Senate primary in Colorado, which has been rather moribund of late, has picked up steam, as challenger Andrew Romanoff snagged two major endorsements from organized labor in the person of the UFCW and the Teamsters. The incumbent, appointed Senator Michael Bennet, countered with a high-profile advocate of his own--President Obama. Obama will stump with Bennet next week on a campaign tour that will also take Obama to the Silver State on behalf of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
FL-Sen: Is Rubio's Success Going To His Head?
Marco Rubio, it is safe to say, has become the frontrunner in the Florida GOP Senate primary. That has been propelled, in no small part, by a very affectionate treatment from a local media that has clearly fallen in love with this story. That might be changing, however, as attempts by his staff to insulate Rubio from the media crush is royally ticking off some of the local media. After a campaign appearance, the normally accessible Rubio team limited access to the candidate to a pair of TV stations, and at least one local newspaper editorial has ripped him for it.
MO-Sen: Rasmussen Returns To Show-Me State, With Similar Results
Another month, another poll of the potentially competitive open-seat Senate race out of Missouri by Rasmussen. Rasmussen gives us almost identical numbers to last month, giving Republican Roy Blunt a seven-point lead (49-42) over Democrat Robin Carnahan. The two are the leading candidates of their parties in competition for the seat being abandoned by retiring Republican Kit Bond.
NV-Sen: Reid Loses A Potentially Strong Senate Opponent
This, I suppose, qualifies as good news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: Nevada's Republican Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki announced that, contrary to expectations, he will not run for the Senate. Krolicki, after being absolved of public corruption charges late last year, seemed likely to make the jump into the Senate race. The potential benefit for Reid here is sketchy, however, since all recent polling shows him trailing even the second-tier Republicans in the field.
NH-Sen: Rasmussen (More Or Less) Confirms DK/R2K Poll
Rasmussen hits the Granite State as part of their return to Ras-A-Palooza, and their numbers are actually pretty similar to our numbers here at Daily Kos last week. Democratic frontrunner Paul Hodes trails "establishment" GOPer Kelly Ayotte by seven points (46-39), while Hodes leads the "conservative alternative" candidate, Ovide Lamontagne, by six points (44-38). Against self-funder Bill Binnie, the race is a true toss-up (Binnie 42-41).
ND-Sen: Prairies Are A Certain Pickup For GOP, According to Ras
No one really had North Dakota in their toss-up column once Democratic Byron Dorgan retired early last month. But if new numbers from Rasmussen are to be believed, even giving the Democrats a slim chance of hanging onto this seat appear to be a tad optimistic. Rasmussen has the likely Republican nominee, Governor John Hoeven blasting either Democrat contemplating a bid. Hoeven beats former state AG Heidi Heitkamp (65-29), and beats state legislator Tracy Potter by an even wider margin (71-17).
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-03: Famous Name Added To Growing GOP Field in Phoenix Burbs
The Republican field to replace the retiring John Shadegg in AZ-03 already sported three former state legislators and a former gubernatorial candidate. It now features...a Quayle. Ben Quayle, the son of former Vice-President Dan Quayle, announced that he will add his name to the growing field on the GOP side. Quayle looks, from his earliest statements on the race, to be making a generational appeal (he is in his early 30s). It's worth noting that such a move worked well for his father, whose political rise to stardom began with seizing a U.S. House seat at just 29 years of age.
ND-AL: Rasmussen Also Makes Amazing Claim About ND House Race
The battle to be the sole House member from North Dakota is closer than expected, if the new Rasmussen poll out today is to be believed. Rasmussen claims that longtime Democratic incumbent Earl Pomeroy is actually trailing Republican state legislator Rick Berg (46-40), while holding only modest leads over fellow potential GOP contenders Kevin Cramer and Paul Shaffner. This was dramatically different from the DK/R2K polls last month, which had Pomeroy leading handily, albeit underneath the 50% threshold of safety for incumbent Congressmen.
OR-01: Self-Funding Republican Reverses Course on 2010 Bid
Although he has been elected rather easily in the past several cycles, Democrat David Wu was staring at one of his most potentially competitive races to date this year when self-funder Stephen Broadhead entered the race on the GOP side. After directing nearly a quarter of a million dollars into his own campaign coffers, however, Broadhead reversed course today, citing the strength of another candidate in the field, businessman Rob Cornilles. He then reversed course again, saying he was only suspending his campaign, which he would re-charge if the candidates proved to be insufficiently conservative.
PA-12: Is Murtha Widow Being Recruited To Run For Congress?
An interesting rumor developed today: is it possible that Joyce Murtha, the widow of recently departed Pennsylvania Congressman John Murtha, being recruited to replace her late husband in Congress? Such a move is not unprecedented: indeed, three members of the House (Republican Mary Bono Mack, along with Democrats Lois Capps and Doris Matsui) followed their late husbands into Congress. Certainly, this would not be an act of desperation: the Democratic bench in the district is actually pretty deep. Leading candidates being mentioned include former Lt. Gov Mark Singel, former state treasurer Barbara Hafer (who flirted with a bid in the neighboring 18th a few years back), and state senator/longtime Murtha ally John Wozniak.
RI-01: First Candidates Being Mentioned In Wake of Kennedy Shocker
Less than 24 hours after the rather surprising announcement of eight-term Democratic Congressman Patrick Kennedy's retirement, some candidate names are already emerging. One of them, in particular, should be familiar to political junkies. Nicholas Pell, the thirty-something grandson of longtime Rhode Island Senator Claiborne Pell, is mulling a bid.
TX-08: Poe Picks Colleague over Staffer in Awkward Endorsement
This had to be a pretty touchy decision: TX-02 Congressman Ted Poe was faced with an uncomfortable choice. A competitive Republican primary in the neighboring 8th district matched his House colleague, Kevin Brady, against a longtime Poe staffer, Melecio Franco. Poe got off the fence less than three weeks from primary day, giving his nod to the incumbent.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
IL-Gov: First Post-Primary Poll Gives Dems A Solid Lead
In the immediate wake of last week's competitive gubernatorial primaries in the land of Lincoln, a new poll from Victory Research puts the incumbent Governor, Pat Quinn, into a solid lead over either potential GOP rival (remember: the GOP primary, decided by less than 600 votes, is still in flux). If the current GOP leader, Bill Brady, holds onto his nomination, Quinn leads the race by eleven points (42-31). The more "moderate" alternative for Republicans, state Senator Kirk Dillard, comes closer to the incumbent, but still trails by six (41-35). A Green Party candidate, Rich Whitney, trails badly with 3-4% of the vote. Quinn also narrowly won his primary, but his opponent Dan Hynes conceded the race late last week with the margin of victory hovering around 8000 votes.
MI-Gov: Rasmussen Gives GOP Early, But Not Overwhelming, Edge
In a state that has been brutalized in the current economic crisis, one might expect that Michigan might take its anger out on the incumbent party in the governor's mansion. That said, Democrats are at least within striking distance, according to a new Rasmussen Poll. When pairing the three leading Republicans (Congressman Peter Hoekstra, state AG Mike Cox, and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard) against the two leading Democrats (Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and state House Speaker Andy Dillon), the GOP wins five of those six combinations. The sole exception is a one-point win for Andy Dillon over Mike Cox. The leads for the GOP are pretty modest, mostly in the six-to-ten point range.
PA-Gov: Republican Corbett With Monster Lead, According to Ras
If Rasmussen is to be believed in the Keystone State, the GOP is on their way to a rout of a pickup in the battle to replace the term-limited Ed Rendell. The presumptive Republican nominee, state AG Tom Corbett, has a double-digit lead over any of the prospective Dems in the field. The closest battle, in fact, is a pretty one-sided 49-28 lead for Corbett over state Auditor Jack Wagner. Corbett also enjoys sizeable edges over former Congressman Joe Hoeffel (51-29) and Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (52-26). One possible caveat--Corbett's favorabilities are cartoonish enough in this case (67/15) to almost raise a red flag all on their own. Without question, he is popular. Without question, he's the favorite in this race. But...67/15?
TX-Gov: UT Jumps Into Polling Game, Looks At Gubernatorial Race
The University of Texas adds their data to the growing pile (PDF File) of polls in the competitive gubernatorial race in the Lone Star State. UT comes closest, it could be argued, to PPP, with incumbent Governor Rick Perry well in front and a two-man race for the runner-up position. UT has Perry leading with 45%, followed by Kay Bailey Hutchison at 21% and Debra Medina at 19%. On the Democratic side, it is a laugher, with former Houston Mayor Bill White leading Farouk Shami 50-11. In the general election, UT confirms all other recent pollsters (including DK/R2K) by stating that White trails his GOP rivals in the single digits. Both Rick Perry (44-35) and KBH (43-34) lead the Democrat by nine points, which is a bit wider than DK/R2K had the race.
In other news, UT also polled one of the most interesting downballot primaries in the Lone Star State. For those eagerly awaiting data on the Ag Commissioner's battle, Kinky Friedman has a lead over Hank Gilbert, but within the margin of error.