I'm glad to see that we are finally getting into gear and doing whip counts on the reconciliation and the public option, Josh Marshall style. This has a number of benefits. First, it may get reconciliation -- with or without the public option -- to happen. Second, it may make it more clear to many of us how steep the hill is that we are still climbing. I want the public option, but for me it is not the sine qua non of reform -- especially if we establish the beachhead of a Medicare buy-in. So, I think we should be thinking about not just one reconciliation bill -- but several. (See dday's whip count for a good second step.) There are things that need to be done and things that we want to get done -- and the former shouldn't be the enemy of the latter.
Here's what I think we're not doing as well as we could:
I'd like to see people asking about specific policies being enacted through reconciliation. For example, start with an easy one:
Would you favor using reconciliation to eliminate the Nebraska Purchase?
Start 'em out easy. Then here's another one that Democrats should accept easily:
Would you favor using reconciliation to eliminate or scale back the so-called "Cadillac Tax"?
After that, try this:
Would you favor using reconciliation to provide for a Medicare buy-in at age 55?
And then this:
Would you favor using reconciliation to provide for a public option?
And I'm sure that there are other good ideas as well.
Break it down! Make it hard to say "no." That's how we'll win.
I'm trying to post before midnight, but I'm going to update in a few minutes with my sense of who is how hard to convince overall on reconciliation. I look forward to your own views on that!
UPDATE: Who stands where?
Here's the current list of non-signers, according to mediafreeze's diary:
Sen. Daniel Akaka HI
Sen. Max Baucus MT
Sen. Evan Bayh IN
Sen. Mark Begich AK
Sen. Jeff Bingaman NM
Sen. Robert Byrd WV
Sen. Maria Cantwell WA
Sen. Thomas Carper DE
Sen. Robert Casey PA
Sen. Kent Conrad ND
Sen. Christopher Dodd CT
Sen. Byron Dorgan ND
Sen. Richard Durbin IL
Sen. Russell Feingold WI
Sen. Kay Hagan NC
Sen. Tom Harkin IA
Sen. Daniel Inouye HI
Sen. Tim Johnson SD
Sen. Ted Kaufman DE
Sen. Herb Kohl WI
Sen. Mary Landrieu LA
Sen. Carl Levin MI
Sen. Blanche Lincoln AR
Sen. Claire McCaskill MO
Sen. Robert Menendez NJ
Sen. Patty Murray WA
Sen. Bill Nelson FL
Sen. Ben Nelson NE
Sen. Mark Pryor AR
Sen. Harry Reid NV
Sen. John Rockefeller WV
Sen. Charles Schumer NY
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen NH
Sen. Arlen Specter PA
Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI
Sen. Jon Tester MT
Sen. Mark Udall CO
Sen. Mark Warner VA
Sen. James Webb VA
Sen. Ron Wyden OR
I break them down this way, just using my gut:
JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THEY GET ON BOARD
Sen. Daniel Akaka HI
Sen. Jeff Bingaman NM
Sen. Maria Cantwell WA
Sen. Christopher Dodd CT
Sen. Byron Dorgan ND
Sen. Richard Durbin IL
Sen. Russell Feingold WI
Sen. Tom Harkin IA
Sen. Daniel Inouye HI
Sen. Tim Johnson SD
Sen. Ted Kaufman DE
Sen. Herb Kohl WI
Sen. Carl Levin MI
Sen. Robert Menendez NJ
Sen. Patty Murray WA
Sen. John Rockefeller WV
Sen. Arlen Specter PA
Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI
Sen. Mark Udall CO
Sen. Ron Wyden OR
That gets us from 20 to 40, and not all of those will be so easy.
A LITTLE STICKIER, BUT BASICALLY RELIABLE
Sen. Mark Begich AK
Sen. Thomas Carper DE
Sen. Kay Hagan NC
Sen. Bill Nelson FL
Sen. Harry Reid NV (only because otherwise he's screwed)
Sen. Jon Tester MT
That gets us to 46.
MUCH STICKIER, NOT SO RELIABLE
Sen. Claire McCaskill MO
Sen. Mark Pryor AR
Sen. Mark Warner VA
Sen. James Webb VA
That would get us to 50 if we got them all.
MORE DIFFICULT, OFTEN IDIOSYNCRATIC
Sen. Max Baucus MT
Sen. Robert Byrd WV (for public option, not necessarily for other proposals)
Sen. Robert Casey PA (depending on what he thinks about abortion)
Sen. Kent Conrad ND
Sen. Mary Landrieu LA
Five chances to get another vote. (Don't let Casey be the swing vote, please!)
NO WAY, NO HOW
Sen. Evan Bayh IN
Sen. Blanche Lincoln AR
Sen. Ben Nelson NE
So the 50th vote looks like someone like Pryor or Warner -- unless Baucus or Conrad or Casey comes through. That's progress. It's just not a sure thing. That's why I want to see two bills go forward -- one with a public option, and a still pretty good one without it, just in case.