An new Kaiser Tracking poll shows the country evenly split on the current HCR plan--43/43, but it also finds that "majorities of Americans of all political leanings support several provisions in the health reform proposals in Congress and most attribute delays in passing the legislation to political gamesmanship rather than policy disagreements."
Some key takeaways:
Given a list of various elements of health care reform, more than two-thirds of the public overall said it was either "extremely" or "very important" that these changes be passed into law: reforming the way health insurance works ( 76%), providing tax credits to small businesses (72%), creating a health insurance exchange (71%), helping close the Medicare "doughnut hole" (71%), expanding high-risk insurance pools (70%), and providing financial help for lower- and middle-income people (68%). At the bottom of the list, though still receiving significant levels of support, were measures to allow insurers to sell policies across state lines (50%) or to limit future increases in Medicare provider payments (46%).....
Most Americans attribute the delays in passing health care reform to political gamesmanship, with 59 percent saying the delays are "more about both sides playing politics" and 25 percent saying they are "more about Republicans and Democrats having disagreements." This sentiment runs the political gamut, with 61 percent of Democrats, 62 percent of independents and 53 percent of Republicans fingering political considerations as the primary reason for the delays....
When all is said and done, 58 percent of Americans say they will be either disappointed or angry if Congress decides to stop working on health care reform. Thirty-eight percent say they expect to feel happy or relieved. The numbers are roughly reversed when the public is asked how they will feel if Congress passes reform, with 54 percent naming a positive emotion and 38 percent a negative one.
This reinforces that healthcare reform has to happen or all hell breaks loose in November. The 38 percent who would like to see reform fail are the same 38 percent who are opposed to the public option, to DADT repeal, to basically any proposal that Obama or the Democrats might come up with. Write them off, and don't legislate to them, because you're never gonna get them.
Here it is in black and white from the findings [pdf]:
If a candidate for Congress (INSERT ITEM; ROTATE a AND b) health care reform legislation, would that make you (MORE) likely to vote for him or her, (LESS) likely to vote for him or her, or wouldn’t it make much difference in your vote? (ROTATE OPTIONS IN PARENTHESES)
a. Supported
More likely: 35
Less likely: 24
No difference: 37
b. Opposed
More likely: 26
Less likely: 35
No difference: 36
Another fun takeaway comes in the form of this graph (click for larger version):
The few ideas that Republicans are going to be bringing to the table, tort reform and selling insurance across state lines, don't matter to majorities of people. They want systemic change--76 percent think it's either extremely or very important to "reform the way health insurance works." This is one area where they are not afraid of big change. Obama and Congress need to deliver it.