New York State has an unusual way of conducting elections. Here, one candidate can run for office on the ballot lines of more than one political party. All votes each candidate receives on all lines get added up into one final total - it's called "fusion voting," and it's actually not permitted in most states. But it adds a very interesting wrinkle to New York politics.
For instance, back in 1993, the corrupt and thankfully defunct Liberal Party gave its line in the NYC mayor's race to Rudy Giuliani. This gave Democrats who opposed David Dinkins but couldn't countenance pulling the Republican lever a way to vote for Rudy that salved their consciences (even though it still meant they were electing, well, a Republican). Giuliani scored some 62,000 votes on the Liberal line, but won by only 57K overall, putting him forever in Liberal chair Ray Harding's debt. This debt was repaid through patronage, a common stock-in-trade for Harding - and an activity he was eventually indicted for last year (in connection with his dealings with Alan Hevesi).
Not all third-party behavior in New York is this colorful or unseemly. There are fewer small parties today than in the past, and only three of them matter: the Conservative Party, the Independence Party, and the Working Families Party. Why is this the case? To get on the ballot in the first place, you need to undertake a difficult, state-wide signature drive. To stay on the ballot, you need to get at least 50,000 votes for governor on your line every four years. Most minor parties, like the Green Party or the Right to Life Party, can't sustain this and eventually wither. (Same with the Liberals.) The survivors, however, have found a way to endure.
The Conservatives, as you'd expect, almost always cross-endorse Republicans (though occasionally they back Democrats or sometimes their own candidates). Originally formed to oppose liberal Rockefeller-style Republicans, they act as a grumpy right-ward pressure group and have been known to split the vote in favor of Democrats - remember NY-23 last year? (Something similar also happened in the same region in a race which led to Dem David Valesky getting elected to the state Senate a few years ago.)
The Independence Party, near as I can tell, is a vestige from the Ross Perot days (though it was founded shortly before his presidential run, and didn't earn a permanent spot on the ballot until 1994). My personal opinion is that it remains a force because enough people register as members thinking instead that they are registering as "independents." (To do that in NY, you need to leave the party selection box on your registration form blank.) Plenty of people probably vote that line for similar reasons. The IP doesn't have much of a platform and sometimes experiences local power struggles reminiscent of the SDS, but for any politician craving the aura of "independence" (ie, all of them), it's a bonus.
Finally, there's the most potent of the bunch, the Working Families Party. Formed in 1998 as the Liberal Party lay dying, they are by far the best organized and most powerful of the bunch. They are tightly aligned with NY's unions and stake out a pretty progressive platform. They also offer a lot more than just their ballot line - a full-fledged WFP endorsement comes with serious field resources as well. At the federal level, they've been cross-endorsing Dems since 2000. (They've supported some Republicans at other levels in the past, but I've already expressed enough grar about that to last a lifetime.)
Anyhow, by my count, the WFP has provided the margin of victory in five House races in New York. That is to say, without the votes accumulated on the WFP line, the following candidates would have lost:
Year | CD | Democrat | Overall Margin | WFP Votes | Without WFP |
---|
2002 | 1 | Timothy Bishop | 2,752 | 2,951 | -199 |
2004 | 27 | Brian Higgins | 3,774 | 8,091 | -4,317 |
2008 | 29 | Eric Massa | 5,330 | 9,003 | -3,673 |
2009 | 20 | Scott Murphy | 726 | 3,839 | -3,113 |
2009 | 23 | Bill Owens | 3,584 | 6,589 | -3,005 |
All five of these were difficult races, in swingy or Republican districts, and each victory was at least somewhat unexpected. Also unexpected was the next-closest race that didn't make this list - Rep. Mike Arcuri's super-narrow escape in 2008 in NY-24. Arcuri, unlike the five men above, was an incumbent, not a challenger, and he was widely expected to cruise to re-election - neither the NRCC nor the DCCC spent a dime on this race, and major prognosticators barely had this contest on their radar. (I was among that group.)
But Arcuri surprised everyone by barely hanging on to his seat with a 52-48 win over businessman Richard Hanna. And had it not been for the Working Families Party, Arcuri's margin would have been much, much tighter. Overall, he won by 9,919 votes, but 9,454 of them came on the WFP line. Without them, he would have had an edge of only 465 votes, just on the scary outskirts of potential recount territory.
This makes Arcuri's decision to vote against healthcare reform a dangerous one, given that he's facing a very competitive rematch against Hanna. Since Arcuri already voted in favor of the bill in November, he'll be opening himself up to John Kerry-style "voted for it before he voted against" attacks. But more importantly, his flip-flop has earned the wrath of the WFP, which has promised not to support any New York Dems who vote against the bill.
Indeed, the WFP and their union allies are moving quickly, reaching out to epidemiologist and professor Les Roberts about a possible primary challenge to Arcuri. (Roberts in fact briefly ran for this seat when it was open in 2006, before deferring to Arcuri.) Even if Roberts or another candidate loses the Democratic primary, he or she would still likely wind up with the WFP line in November, drawing votes away from Arcuri. This is a strategy that the WFP has never deliberately pursued, but as Executive Director Dan Cantor says, "This is an unexpected move for us to make, and a symbol of how important this vote is."
Mike Arcuri was already going to have a difficult race even with the backing of the Working Families Party. Unless he changes his mind this weekend, he's going to have an even harder time without them, and he may become the first Democratic incumbent in New York to lose an election because he lost the WFP's support.