Observers were expecting the fight over the Health Care Reconciliation bill to run on for much longer. The Republicans could have offered hundreds of amendments in the Senate, or tried many other maneuvers, but they just stopped today and let Reconciliation go through tonight. The President can sign it tomorrow.
What happened? Several Congressional Republicans and others in high places were on the verge of open revolt. Rachel Maddow ran through a surprisingly long list of them on her show tonight, which we will explore below the fold. This allows me to conjecture that what stopped the Republican Juggernaut of No Way, No How, Nuh-Uh! during Reconciliation was that one or more Republicans might have voted for Health Care if the fight went on any longer. Folding a bit early might have seemed less disastrous than suffering defections.
More of what we know after the jump.
I can't prove my conjecture from what we know today, so we must keep alert for more on this question. In the meantime, I note that the Republican party, in mourning after losing the 2008 elections, has passed out of plain denial and anger, through false bargaining with poison pill amendments, to real bargaining inside itself.
On The Rachel Maddow Show today Rachel ran through some examples of Noism first, leading off with House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) declaiming, "I will guarantee you that we will make sure that not one Republican will vote for this bill," and culminating with House Minority Leader John Boehner shouting, "Hell, no, you can't!" (On that subject, see the wonderful will.i.am/Boehner mashup.)
She contrasted the uninterestingly uniform Party of No with the rather various Democrats, who had to come to terms with themselves to get Health Care through on their own, as they did. The Republicans have been losing, big and often since the President went on the offensive, culminating in tonight's vote to finish the Reconciliation process, and President Obama's victory lap in Iowa today, including his invitation for the Republicans to take their threats of repeal and "Go for it" in the campaign. "That's a fight we can have."
Now let's take a quick look at Rachel's list of recent cracks in the Republican Party of No Maybe! walls.
- Senator Jim DeMint had 50 amendments ready, but decided to offer only 3.
- Senator Bob Corker said today, "I think we made a very, very large mistake, and I regret that...You don't pull the game book out for Health Care--I'm sorry--and apply that to financial reform.
- Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins broke with the Repubican party on a same-sex-marriage amendment today.
- Senators Lindsey Graham and Jim Webb continued a hearing today on military health systems in defiance of a Republican shutdown.
- Former Bush speech writer David Frum has said, "We used to think that Fox News worked for us, and now we realize we work for Fox News." He also told the Republicans that they had brought Waterloo on themselves, and was abruptly fired from the American Enterprise Institute GroupThink Tank for his trouble.
- Republicans had to condemn the racist, bigoted, violent outbreaks from Tea Party protestors and anonymous cowards (although they took the opportunity to blame the attacks on Democrats, and to invent attacks on themselves).
- Republicans are now trying to take credit for various aspects of the Health Care Bill. But not all of them. Senators Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch turn out to be the original authors of the Individual Mandate way back in 1993.
What do you think of my conjecture? Plausible?
And when do you think depression will set in? Before or after November?